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The NK Conflict: A systems view of where actors sit on issues and the impact of finding a solution

The NK Conflict: A systems view of where actors sit on issues and the impact of finding a solution. Dr. Michael Baranick National Defense University January 14, 2007. Agenda. Overview of Black Sea Conflicts Senturion Methodology Detailed Baseline Results Summary of Findings Conclusion.

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The NK Conflict: A systems view of where actors sit on issues and the impact of finding a solution

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  1. The NK Conflict: A systems view of where actors sit on issues and the impact of finding a solution Dr. Michael Baranick National Defense University January 14, 2007

  2. Agenda • Overview of Black Sea Conflicts • Senturion Methodology • Detailed Baseline Results • Summary of Findings • Conclusion

  3. Overview Agenda Gas pipelines - Leverage Supporting Conflict & Peace - N-K, S. Ossetia, Abkhazia EU Membership - Stable Multiple Low-Level Conflicts - Cyprus, Kurdish uprising, Armenian Genocide

  4. Approach Senturion Methodology • Senturion uses input data from subject matter experts (SMEs) to: • Frame the issues • Identify stakeholders’ position, influence, and importance • Applies game theory, decision theory, and spatial bargaining models to simulate: • Evolving stakeholder relationships • Formation of potential coalitions • Impacts of changes in environment • Utility of the model: • Visual representation of complex situations • Provides a forum to discuss the nature of dispute and to mediate compromise • Provides insights into complex decision making

  5. Background Senturion Methodology • Senturion has been used to analyze Nagorno-Karabakh related issues since August 2005. • SMEs have been consulted in Washington, Baku, and Yerevan. The pool of subject matter experts (SMEs) includes academics, think-tanks analysts, Armenians, Azeris, and US government employees. • To illustrate the application of Senturion modeling to this problem, this briefing summarizes separate studies conducted in September 2006 and January 2008 regarding the dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. • These results are based on data collected from both Armenian and Azerbaijani sources on over 140 distinct stakeholders.

  6. N - K part of AZ N - K part of AZ N - K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, w/ full SQ: NK w/ NK Indep w/ limited security NK Indep autonomy & N - K part of NK joins provisional autonomy & status w/ guarantees, & AZ w/ no status w/ security Armenia w/ status under security Lachin & autonomy Lachin corridor Lachin guarantees territories guarantees Armenia territories 0 10 35 50 70 80 85 90 100 Senturion Issue Analyzed Senturion Methodology • Analyses focus on stakeholder behavior and political interaction around a range of possible outcomes. • This study focuses on the following continuum:

  7. Detailed Baseline Senturion AnalysisSeptember 2006 & January 2008 Studies

  8. Azerbaijani & Armenian Positions • The following slides provide a visualization of the modeled results: • The first graph details the current positions of stakeholders from both the Azerbaijani and Armenian perspectives. • The second graph details the forecasted positions of stakeholders at the conclusion of bargaining. • This allows us to analyze how this situation will unfold.

  9. Current Positions: Azerbaijani Perspective (Sept06 Study) NK Indepstatus w/ Lachin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lachin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lachin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders Dashnak Party (NK) Dashnak Party (ARM) Babayan Margaryan Ohanian Gukasian Usubov Oskanian Mahmudov Mammadyarov Kocharian Pashayev Aliyev Sadiqov Sarkisian Abiyev Ter-Petrosian Rasizade Current Positions: Armenian Perspective (Jan08 Study) NK Indepstatus w/ Lachin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lachin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lachin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees Azerbaijani Stakeholders Kocharian Armenian Stakeholders Sarkisian N-K Stakeholders Haroutunyan Petrosian Sahakyan NK Dashnak Party Hakobyan ARM Dashnak Party Rasizade Abiyev Mahmudov Oskanian Aliyev Mammadyarov Sadiqov Ter-Petrosian Pashayev Usubov 9

  10. Forecasted Positions: Azerbaijani Perspective (Sept06 Study) NK Indepstatus w/ Lachin NK Indepstatus w/ Lachin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lachin corridor N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lachin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lachin & territories NK Indep w/ Lachin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees Azerbaijani Stakeholders Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders Oskanian Margaryan Ter-Petrosian Dashnak Party (ARM) Usubov Sadiqov Kocharian Mahmudov Abiyev Ohanian Babayan Sarkisian Gukasian Rasizade Pashayev Dashnak Party (NK) Aliyev Forecasted Positions: Armenian Perspective (Jan08 Study) Petrosian Kocharian Sahakyan Sarkisian Hakobyan Rasizade Haroutunyan Usubov NK Dashnak Party Mahmudov Mammadyarov ARM Dashnak Party Pashayev Oskanian Aliyev Abiyev Ter-Petrosian Sadiqov

  11. Summary of Findings (Sept 2006 Study) Summary of Findings • Senturion analysis indicates that Azerbaijani sources perceive the current political landscape as highly segmented. • Over time, the forecast reveals that a majority of Azerbaijani elites will move close to supporting the provisional status. • They also expect Armenia & Karabakh elites to form a consensus around an independent state with a corridor through Lachin. • On the other hand, analysis based on Armenian sources shows the stakeholders on all sides adopting disparate positions across the political landscape. • Armenia elites are also forecasted to expected to move decisively in support of the provisional status. • Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is expected to remain steadfast in demanding Karabakh’s re-annexation.

  12. Conclusion Next Steps • Analysis demonstrates a bias on both sides towards their own proclivity for agreement. Sadly, regardless of how Senturion modeling is framed (between Azerbaijani & Armenian sources), the elites on all sides are either (1) on the verge of a peaceful solution or (2) oceans apart. • This finding underscores the need for direct dialogue between the parties to the conflict. • Senturion modeling can also be used to test potential COAs and attempt to find feasible compromises • Identify obstacles to agreement • Evaluate ways to mitigate the influence of potential obstacles

  13. Detailed Baseline Senturion Analysis(September 2006 Study)

  14. NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders Current Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Stakeholders Dashnak Party (ARM) Babayan Dashnak Party (NK) Ohanian Gukasian Margaryan Nat’l Assembly Speaker Usubov Azimov AZ Community in ARM Mammadyarov Pashayev Kocharian Mekhtiyev Oskanian Mahmudov Gulluzadeh Aliyev Sadiqov Republic Party Mammadov Sarkisian Heritage Party Abiyev Liberal Progressive Party Radical Vets Rasizade Ter-Petrosian Abbasov NRM Mutilibov 15

  15. NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders Forecasted Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Stakeholders Oskanian Nat’l Assembly Speaker Margaryan Liberal Progressive Party Republic Party Ter-Petrosian Heritage Party Gulluzadeh Usubov Dashnak Party (ARM) Sadiqov Mahmudov Gagic & Zarubian Oligarchy Azimov Kocharian Abiyev Rasizade Ohanian Sarkisian Namazov AZ Community in ARM Babayan Abbasov Gukasian Mutilibov Radical Vets Mammadov Dashnak Party (NK) Mekhtiyev Pashayev NRM Hasanov Aliyev 16

  16. International Stakeholder Positions • Currently, Russia, Iran, and the OSCE support the current provisional status. • On the other hand, Turkey strongly supports Azerbaijani claims. • The OSCE is expected to make a small shift towards granting N-K independent status. • All other foreign groups, except Russia, are likely to offer compromises in response. • Ultimately, despite OSCE support for independent status, Russia, Iran, and Turkey will remain opposed to any resolution of the conflict.

  17. Current Positions: International Stakeholders NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees US Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders Iranian Military OSCE Russian FM Medvedev Putin Surkov Khamenei Russian FSB Obali Rushaylo US ARM Amb Kasprzyk Turkish Business. For ARM open border Russian MoD Turkish Business. For ARM open border State Duma Turkey Military Rafsanjani Iran-ARM Community DOE IRGC Ahmadinejad Pro-Independence ARM Lobby Turkey Govt NSC Bryza ARM Pro-Indep w/ Russia Iran AZ Community Russian Oil Companies DOD ANCA Turkish Opp. To ARM open border Rice Grey Wolf Cheney AAA Bush Kirkorian 18

  18. NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees US Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders Forecasted Positions: International Stakeholders Medvedev OSCE US ARM Amb ARM US Lobby Russian FM Surkov Iran-ARM Community Russian FSB Kasprzyk DOE Rushaylo Iranian Military AAA Russian MoD Obali NSC Bush Putin ANCA Khamenei Russian Oil Companies State Duma Bryza Russia-ARM Diaspora Rafsanjani DOD Rice Ahmadinejad Turkey Military Grey Wolf IRG Cheney Turkish Opp. To ARM open border Iran AZ Community Turkish Business. For ARM open border Turkey Govt Kirkorian 19

  19. COA Analysis

  20. Summary of COA Analysis • COA 1 – US Backs Armenian Position • No substantive progress expected to occur • COA 2 – US Backs Azerbaijani Position • No substantive progress expected to occur • A variety of bargaining strategies were explored without substantive progress. • Collaboration with Armenians and Azerbaijanis could identify potential targets for further COA testing.

  21. COA 1 – US Backs Armenia: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees NSC Sarkisian Dashnak Party (ARM) Bryza US ARM Amb DOD Babayan ARM US Lobby Dashnak Party (NK) Rice DOE Ohanian Cheney Margaryan AAA Gukasian ANCA Bush Nat’l Assembly Speaker Usubov Azimov AZ Community in ARM Kocharian Mammadyarov Pashayev Oskanian Mekhtiyev Kirkorian Mahmudov Gulluzadeh Aliyev Sadiqov Republic Party Mammadov Heritage Party Abiyev Liberal Progressive Party Radical Vets Rasizade Ter-Petrosian Abbasov NRM Mutilibov Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders

  22. NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees Forecasted COA 1 Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions Sarkisian NSC Bryza Babayan US ARM Amb Ohanian DOD ARM US Lobby Gukasian Rice Nat’l Assembly Speaker DOE Cheney Mutilibov Bush AAA Dashnak Party (ARM) Azimov Kocharian Usubov AZ Community in ARM Oskanian Mammadyarov Bush Pashayev Kirkorian Mekhtiyev Liberal Progressive Party Mahmudov Gulluzadeh Aliyev Sadiqov ANCA Mammadov Ter-Petrosian Dashnak Party (NK) Abiyev Radical Vets Republic Party Rasizade Margaryan Abbasov Heritage Party NRM Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders

  23. COA 1 – US Backs Armenia: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees Sarkisian Dashnak Party (ARM) Bryza Babayan DOD Dashnak Party (NK) Bush Ohanian Rice Gukasian Margaryan AAA Kocharian Azimov Oskanian Pashayev Aliyev Kirkorian Mahmudov Mammadyarov Sadiqov Abiyev Rasizade Ter-Petrosian Forecasted COA 1 Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions Sarkisian Bryza Bush Babayan DOD Ohanian Rice Gukasian Dashnak Party (ARM) Kocharian Azerbaijani Stakeholders Azerbaijani Stakeholders Oskanian AAA Azimov Armenian Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders Kirkorian Pashayev Aliyev Dashnak Party (NK) N-K Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders Mahmudov Mammadyarov US Stakeholders US Stakeholders Sadiqov Margaryan Abiyev Rasizade Ter-Petrosian 24

  24. COA 2 – US Backs Azerbaijan: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees Dashnak Party (ARM) US ARM Amb Babayan Mammadyarov NSC Dashnak Party (NK) Cheney Bryza Ohanian Mekhtiyev DOD Margaryan Gukasian Bush Azimov ANCA Nat’l Assembly Speaker Aliyev Rice Usubov DOE AZ Community in ARM Kocharian Pashayev Oskanian Sarkisian Kirkorian Mahmudov ARM US Lobby Gulluzadeh Sadiqov Republic Party Mammadov AAA Heritage Party Abiyev Liberal Progressive Party Radical Vets Rasizade Ter-Petrosian Abbasov NRM Mutilibov Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders

  25. Forecasted COA 2 Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees ARM US Lobby Dashnak Party (ARM) Azimov Babayan Dashnak Party (NK) Ohanian ANCA Margaryan Gukasian Nat’l Assembly Speaker US ARM Amb Liberal Progressive Party Mammadyarov Kocharian Bryza Kirkorian Aliyev Mekhtiyev Usubov AZ Community in ARM Mutilibov Sarkisian Mahmudov Oskanian Pashayev DOD Sadiqov Mammadov AAA Bush Gulluzadeh Abiyev Republic Party NSC Radical Vets Ter-Petrosian Rasizade Heritage Party Abbasov Cheney NRM DOE Rice Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders

  26. COA 2 – US Backs Azerbaijan: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees US ARM Amb Bryza Dashnak Party (ARM) Mammadyarov Babayan DOD Dashnak Party (NK) Aliyev Ohanian Rice Gukasian Margaryan Bush Kocharian Pashayev Oskanian Mahmudov Kirkorian Sadiqov Sarkisian Abiyev Ter-Petrosian Rasizade Forecasted COA 2 Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions Dashnak Party (ARM) Ohanian Margaryan Babayan Gukasian Dashnak Party (NK) Kocharian US ARM Amb Azerbaijani Stakeholders Azerbaijani Stakeholders Mammadyarov Kirkorian Armenian Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders Bryza Sarkisian Mahmudov N-K Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders Aliyev Oskanian Pashayev US Stakeholders US Stakeholders Sadiqov AAA DOD Abiyev Bush Ter-Petrosian Rice Rasizade

  27. Current Positions: Azeri Perspective on International Stakeholders (Sept 2006 Study) NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees US Stakeholders US Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders OSCE Iranian Military Russian FM Putin Khamenei IRGC Russian MoD Kasprzyk Ahmadinejad Turkey Military Bryza Turkey Govt ANCA Bush DOD Kirkorian Russian Oil Companies AAA Rice Current Positions: Armenian Perspective on International Stakeholders (Jan 2008 Study) Iranian Military Russian FM Putin Russian MoD Khamenei ANCA Bryza AAA IRGC Bush Rice OSCE Ahmadinejad Kasprzyk Russian Oil Companies Turkey Military DOD Turkey Govt Kirkorian 29

  28. Forecasted Positions: Azeri Perspective on International Stakeholders (Sept 2006 Study NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin NK Indepstatus w/ Lechin N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor NK joins Armenia w/ territories NK joins Armenia w/ territories SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees US Stakeholders US Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders OSCE Iranian Military Russian FM Putin Khamenei IRGC Russian MoD Kasprzyk Ahmadinejad Turkey Military Bryza Turkey Govt ANCA Bush DOD Kirkorian Russian Oil Companies AAA Rice Forecasted Positions: Armenian Perspective on International Stakeholders (Jan 2008 Study) Iranian Military Russian FM Putin Russian MoD Khamenei ANCA Bryza AAA IRGC Bush Rice OSCE Ahmadinejad Kasprzyk Russian Oil Companies Turkey Military DOD Turkey Govt Kirkorian 30

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