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Case Study: Understanding Climatology to M ake Assumptions

Case Study: Understanding Climatology to M ake Assumptions. 2014 FEWS NET Regional Training Meetings. Basic steps to developing agroclimatology assumptions. 1. Understand the climatology for the area of concern. 2. Evaluate current climate modes. 3. Interpret available forecasts.

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Case Study: Understanding Climatology to M ake Assumptions

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  1. Case Study: Understanding Climatology to Make Assumptions 2014 FEWS NET Regional Training Meetings

  2. Basic steps to developing agroclimatologyassumptions 1. Understand the climatology for the area of concern 2. Evaluate current climate modes 3. Interpret available forecasts 4. Incorporate monitoring data from remote sensing and other sources

  3. Developing agroclimatology assumptions 1. Understand the climatology for the area of concern (well in advance of SOS and as necessary) 2. Evaluate current climate modes (~3 months before SOS and until EOS) 3. Interpret available forecasts (~2 months before SOS and through EOS) 4. Incorporate monitoring data from remote sensing and other sources (SOS through EOS) Develop assumptions about the status of the season onset, early season progress, and seasonal outlook.

  4. Goals • Understand the use of Climatology in creation of assumptions • Climatology and development of crops • Crop calendar and rainfall patterns

  5. Key Messages • Rainfall patterns are directly related with crops activities • Elevation and temperature define the “time” of the crops in the field • Any climate change affect the normal crop calendar

  6. Case Study: Agriculture in Guatemala Escuintla Totonicapan • 2000 mm on average during the season (April – Nov). • Mid summer drought ~10 days (Jul – Aug) • 1000 mm on average during the season (April – Nov). • Mid summer drought ~10 days (Jul – Aug)

  7. Case Study: Average Rainfall Escuintla: Max year 3000, min year 1500 mm in the last 30 years. Totonicapan: Max year 1400, min year of 740 mm in the last 30 years.

  8. Case Study: Average Rainfall Escuintla: Max year 3000, min year 1500 mm in the last 30 years. Totonicapan: Max year 1400, min year of 740 mm in the last 30 years.

  9. Case Study: Agriculture in Guatemala 1800- 2000 m 0 – 700 m Lgpdek Elevation and changes in length of growing period

  10. Case Study: Agriculture in Guatemala A decrease in rainfall during a critical part of the growing period could be detrimental to the plant Water Depth ( mm) PET WR AET Senay 2003 SOS EOS LGP WRSI = AET / WR

  11. Crop Phenology Calendar Escuintla Totonicapan

  12. Affectation of Maize Crops

  13. Affectation of Maize Crops University of Illinois

  14. Assumptions • An extension of the mid summer drought might affect the development of the crops in the high lands of Guatemala where there is a single growing season that last for 6 months., reducing the availability of food for the subsistence farmers. • A extended dry spell could affect the start of the Segunda season in Escuintla, due the dry conditions in the soils, and reducing the probability of a successful harvest due the rainfall patterns (normally the rainfall ends in October in the Pacific Basin)

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