Bill Randall Jonathon Sweetin Diane Steinbeiser

1. Moodle Assessment ReportFeasibility Study Report Projecting DL Enrollments: The Coming Disruption Bill Randall Jonathon Sweetin Diane Steinbeiser NC3ADL Conference - November 15, 2010

2. Learning Technology Systems • Library resources • Integrated Library System/Consortium of 46 college libraries • Cataloging services for 58 colleges • Distance Learning - Virtual Learning Community • Technology center • Professional development center • Quality/assessment center • Course & learning object development center • North Carolina Learning Object Repository • LMS promotion & support • Broadband Data Network – 100Mbps base service • $10.25 million budget & 10 staff members

3. Overview • OSC Moodle Assessment Report Part II: A Feasibility Study • Feasibility Study results & recommendations • Distance learning enrollments: past, present, and (a projected) disruptive future • Funding support for two LMSs

4. OSC Moodle Assessment Rpt. Part II • The study focused on six components that collectively defines "What is the best LMS solution for NC Community Colleges?" • Interoperability and flexibility • Cost effectiveness • Support and training • Ease of use  • Scalability, and   • Sustainability 

5. OSC Moodle Assessment Rpt. Part II • A three-part research methodology was used to measure and evaluate these six components. • LMS Compatibility and Interoperability Survey used to gather information about the general benchmarking statistics of the LMSs in the system, the interoperability of the LMSs with 3rd party applications and services, and a short open-ended LMS needs assessment. • Migration/Upgrade Case Study Survey to gather information regarding NCCCS colleges' (a) migration from Blackboard to Moodle and (b) upgrade by Blackboard clients to ver.9.x. • Total LMS Vendor Cost Analysis to review the total cost of LMS ownership by the NCCCS and the individual colleges in regard to vendor LMS license fees, hosting fees and any other additional costs. 

6. Interoperability and Flexibility • Interoperability was defined as the ability of the LMS to integrate with related peripheral applications and services.  • Integration with SIS (Datatel) most important • Most commonly installed third party LMS plug-ins were anti-plagiarism, communication and assessment development tools.  • Flexibility was defined as the ability to (1) easily move learning content in and out of the LMS and the ability to (2) customize applications to meet specific needs of the colleges or the System. • Moodle is a more flexible LMS appearing to better facilitate movement of learning content in and out of the LMS and more customizable than Blackboard.

7. CostEffectiveness • Cost effectiveness was defined as the total value of return on investment of the LMS. • Cost Included: License Fees, Vendor Hosting Fees, Additional Fees

8. Support and Training • Support and training was defined as the ability of the colleges and the System Office to be responsive to emerging technologies which enhance LMS utilization. • The research revealed that 45 (77.5%) of NCCCS colleges have fewer than three staff members to directly support their distance learning departments.

9. Ease of Use • Ease of use was adequately addressed in the OSC Moodle Assessment Report.   • Moodle and Blackboard were found to be comparable. The real difference, however, was found in students' perception of their teachers’ comfort level with the application.  There existed a significant correlation between student rankings of both Blackboard and Moodle with the perceived comfort level of instructors when using either LMS.  Thus, student perceptions were influenced by instructor experience, training, and skills, regardless of LMS.

10. Scalability • Scalability was defined as the ability of the LMS to efficiently serve both large and small institutions with agile hardware/software solutions at the macro and micro levels.   • Findings revealed a trend for increased course size • Need for massive increase in storage capacity in next 3 years • Both Moodle and Blackboard are suited for large and small installations.

11. Average sized LMS-based courses was 20 to 60 MB but revealed growing trend of increased course size. Storage Capacity questions revealed a massive growth in the next three years.

12. Sustainability • Sustainability was defined as the ability to maintain a consistent level of learning infrastructure and support required to (1) meet the growing enrollment demands of students, (2) meet growing infrastructure needs, and (3) address limitations of funding, faculty needs, and support staff now and into the future. • While researching the need to meet the growing enrollment demands of students a startling discovery was made regarding enrollment growth.

13. Current LMS capacity across NCCCS • 38,000 active courses on combined Blackboard and Moodle servers • Over 300,000 active students on combined LMS servers • 2009 curriculum enrollments delivered via LMS technology are 37.8% of total (DL + traditional enrollments). 2010 enrollment figures expected to increase 14%. • Enrollment growth projections are mathematically disruptive & suggest needed changes in support and decision making.

14. Growth and Expansion • Enrollments, course size, numbers of courses, and use of LMS-related applications are growing • Interest in alternative or secondary LMS(s) is expanding

17. LMS status

18. LMS status…continued

19. Vendor hosting

20. Study Recommendations • Recommendation One: If the decision was only based on cost, functionality, and ease of use, Moodle would be the best LMS for NCCCS. However, given the current funding and support situation across the System, and prevailing Blackboard culture at many institutions, a two-LMS Solution is recommended. • Recommendation Two: An individual or advisory team function to integrate cross-disciplinary interests to better plan, support, promote, and coordinate learning technology solutions for each college . • Recommendation Three: Adoption of Operational and Business Requirements by all NCCCS Institutions. • Recommendation Four: Continued Development and integration of cross-platform learning resources.

21. Disruptive Enrollment Wave • Efforts to identify capacities of LMS-related resources and utilization leads to analysis of 12 years of distance learning curriculum enrollments available from NCCCS data warehouse annual reports • Extraordinary 12 year growth curve discovered • New question: How can we project future growth of LMS-centric enrollments?

22. Distance Learning vs. Traditional Curriculum Enrollments 1998 - 2009

23. Note on Enrollment Growth in “DL” • Enrollment in the NCCCS is categorized in eight instructional delivery methods - SREB & SACS compliant: • Internet courses 100% online • Hybrid (online is primary delivery method – 51% online) • Web-supported • Telecourse • Teleweb • Two-way Video  • Digital media (catch all) • Traditional (Face-to-Face) • Distance learning is the overall general term used in referring to any enrollment other than Traditional.

24. Methods by LMS-centricity • LMS-centric • Internet courses • Hybrid • Web-supported • Possibly LMS-centric • Telecourse • Teleweb • Two-way Video  • Digital media • Non-LMS-centric • Traditional Face-to-Face • Telecourse, teleweb, two-way video and digital media methods are include in the following data and may not be LMS centric. However, these delivery methodologies only account for 3% of total DL enrollment delivery.  Thus, at least 97% of the following DL figures are LMS-centric and important to this study.

26. Total Distance Learning &Traditional Course Enrollments by Reporting Year

27. Exponential growth curve

28. Will DL replace TR Enrollments? • Clayton, Horn, and Johnson, in their 2008 book Disrupting Class, describe a mathematical expression that sets conditions in which a new technology/innovation can eventually replace an older technology/innovation.  • These conditions form what is termed a “disruptive innovation.”  One qualifying condition stipulates that when ratios of the new-technology-compared-with-the-old are plotted on a logarithmic scale (vertical axis), a straight line is created where the first four to five data points lie on the trend line.

29. Figure 4.2 from Disrupting Class, p.99

30. Pace of Substitution of DL to TR Enrollments (Logarithmic Scale)

31. Pace of Substitution of DL to TR Enrollments (Exponential Trend Line)

32. Disruptive Innovation in NCCCS! • The percentage ratio of DL to traditional course enrollments plotted over 12 years establishes a growth curve that is compliant with disruptive innovation mathematical constructs identified in Disrupting Class by Christensen, Horn, and Johnston, McGraw Hill, 2008, p. 96 – 102. • The 2009 ratio of DL or LMS-based enrollments to total course (DL and traditional) enrollments was .6:1.  However, enrollment projections based on the replacement curve indicate a 1:1 ratio of DL to total course enrollments forecast for 2010-2011, a 3:1 ratio forecast for 2014 and a 6:1 ratio for 2016.

33. 1:1 ratio in 2010.5 2:1 ratio in 2012.5 3:1 ratio in 2014 4:1 ratio in 2015 5:1 ratio in 2015.5 6:1 ratio in 2016 Traditional Enrollment Distance Learning (LMS) Enrollment 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

34. How do you know the predictions are accurate? • It is all about the Math! • These predictions havea .9918 R-Squared value (correlation coefficient) - 1.0 being a prefect correlation. Or 99.18 % chance that the correlation between TR enrollments and DL enrollments is correct.

35. What does this disruption mean? • This projection of LMS-based instructional delivery represents a formidable challenge to sustainability of LMS resources facing NC Community Colleges in the next 6.5 years. • Areas impacted: • Instructional programs • Professional development & staff support • Student services • IT & network administration • Budget & procurement • Strategic planning & decision-making • Leadership

36. The Next Big Questions • Disruption is coming…and is likely to change most everything we do!! • Disruption will bring challenges in areas of professional development, IT and DL support positions, funding, administration, planning, coordination, etc. • Can we manage this disruption? • If so, how?

37. Funding Two-LMSs • Decision to financially support two-LMSs announced at NCACCP Fall Retreat and ACCBO Conference • Ongoing discussions with OSBM & IT Procurement • Level of financial support to be equal • FTE-based support structure not yet determined • Future Blackboard contract will be negotiated – likely a multi-year • Colleges will be surveyed to determine preference • Moodle contract situation under advisement

38. Discussion/Questions? Copy of the OCS Moodle Assessment Report Parts I & II, the Feasibility Study are available here: http://oscmoodlereport.wordpress.com/ Bill Randall randallb@nccommunitycolleges.edu