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Local Economic and Business Performance, and Our Prospects for Growth

Local Economic and Business Performance, and Our Prospects for Growth. Adam Peacock Principal Development Officer Research and Information Team Lincolnshire County Council. Unemployment. No. of People Unemployed. Business Performance – Sales/Orders. Increase. Stay the Same. Decrease.

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Local Economic and Business Performance, and Our Prospects for Growth

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  1. Local Economic and Business Performance, and Our Prospects for Growth Adam Peacock Principal Development Officer Research and Information Team Lincolnshire County Council

  2. Unemployment No. of People Unemployed

  3. Business Performance – Sales/Orders Increase Stay the Same Decrease

  4. Business Performance - Exports Increase Stay the Same Decrease

  5. Business Performance - Profitability Increase Stay the Same Decrease

  6. Business Performance - Turnover Increase Stay the Same Decrease

  7. Business Performance - Workforce Increase Stay the Same Decrease

  8. Business Performance - Cashflow Increase Stay the Same Decrease

  9. Local Labour Market Indicators Source: Annual Population Survey

  10. Skills Levels % of the working age population with NVQ level 3+ % Source: Annual Population Survey

  11. Population data - Population has increased from approximately 960,000 to 1,040,000 - Population has grown by 9% over the last decade compared to 8% nationally Source: Office for National Statistics

  12. Active Enterprises per 10,000 population Source: Office of National Statistics

  13. Wage Levels £2,836 £3,277 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

  14. Economic Value Source: Office for National Statistics

  15. GVA per head Source: Office for National Statistics

  16. What we said back in March 2012 • A lagging economy when based on GVA per head, but positive signs in the last 4/5 years • Other measures put the Greater Lincolnshire economy on a more positive footing • Wage and qualification levels improving • Emerging industries (e.g. environmental technologies, renewables) • Ageing population presents opportunities

  17. What about now and in to the future? • Back into recession (double dip) • Economic uncertainty • Conference season • Cashflow / lending problems persist • Longer term forecast is one of growth

  18. Real UK GDP 2005=100 Source: Office for National Statistics

  19. Looking Ahead Actual data Forecast Source: Office for National Statistics, Office for Budget Responsibility

  20. Where is this growth going to come from? • Looking to the future, the Greater Lincolnshire LEP prospectus highlights a number of growth or most important sectors for the Greater Lincolnshire economy: • Agri-food • Manufacturing / Engineering • Visitor Economy • Care • Ports & Logistics • Renewables

  21. Agri-Food Key Facts & Stats • Distinctive feature of the Greater Lincolnshire area • Strategically important both locally, nationally and internationally • Covers primary production, food processing, wholesale, and retail (plus activities around agricultural engineering and packaging) • Employs approximately 78,000 people • 18% of total employment compared to 10% nationally • Generates approximately 11% of total economic value

  22. Agri-Food No. in Employment Actual data Forecast Source: Office for National Statistics, Defra Agricultural Survey, emda Experian Forecasting Model

  23. Engineering Key Facts & Stats • Has a number of strong growth sectors • Employs approximately 14,500 people • 3% of total employment in line with national average • Generates approximately 4% of total economic value

  24. Engineering No. in Employment Actual data Forecast Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model

  25. Visitor Economy • Distinctive feature of the Greater Lincolnshire area • Employs approximately 39,400 people • 9% of total employment compared to 10% nationally • Generates approximately 4% of total economic value

  26. Visitor Economy Actual data Forecast No. in Employment Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model

  27. Care • Covers hospital, medical and dental practice, and social work activities • Employs approximately 59,600 people • 14% of total employment compared to 12% nationally • Generates approximately 9% of total economic value

  28. Care Actual data Forecast No. in Employment Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model

  29. Ports & Logistics • Distinctive feature of the Greater Lincolnshire area • Employs approximately 17,300 people • 4% of total employment compared to 2% nationally • Generates approximately 4% of total economic value

  30. Ports & Logistics Actual data Forecast No. in Employment Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model

  31. Renewables • Emerging industry and difficult to measure • Data suggests substantial growth • Approx 150 companies engaged in renewable energy and environmental activities across the area. • Activities range from installers of solar PV panels, to plastics recycling and manufacturers of electric car batteries. • The LRO is lobbying for a government definition of the sector

  32. In Summary • In the short term the national and local economies face continued uncertainty and a number of challenges to growth • Longer term prospects are better, and locally certain sectors present real potential • Longer term challenges remain, particularly around skills and our traditional industries

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