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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS. OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2010* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst. *Updated 1/5/2011, based on December meeting of the State Board of Equalization. GENERAL REVENUE TRENDS Income vs. Expenditures (In Millions). DECEMBER BOE ESTIMATE.

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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

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  1. STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2010* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *Updated 1/5/2011, based on December meeting of the State Board of Equalization

  2. GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSIncome vs. Expenditures(In Millions) DECEMBER BOE ESTIMATE $5,517.8m $5,484.3m OFFICIAL ESTIMATE Actual Collections $429.1 $5,398.1m $527.2 ($104.3) $5,103.2 $772.8 $4,888.6 $621.3 $253.8 $156.9 $5,068.1m $428.3 Appropriations Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2011 – Ave. 2.43% Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2011) – Ave. 1.89% Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP increases (est. 9%) and ROADS increases (10 Session) Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2011 Act/Est – Normalized Ave. 2.26% Revenue Estimates and forecasts updated 1/5/11, based on December BOE General Revenue Fund Estimates.

  3. General Revenue Fund SourcesBased on OSU Econometric Model Projections(In Millions) FY-2013 – FY-2015 Ave.7.7% Growth UPDATED 1/5/11 BASED ON DECEMBER BOE ESTIMATES. Ave. 6.4% Growth Ave. 4.3% Growth Ave. 4.2% Growth Ave. 2.3% Growth BASED ON OSF OFFICIAL ESTIMATE BASED ON OSU ECONOMETRIC MODEL PROJECTIONS SOURCES ARE SHOWN AS TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING

  4. General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions, With % Over Prior Year) (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax) 5.0% 0.9% 5.1% (7.8)% 7.6% 5.0% 6.3% (16.4)% * Based on OSU Econometric Model projections ACTUALS No adjustments for OHLAP or ROADS funding

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