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Motor Vehicles & Social Policy

Motor Vehicles & Social Policy. 1. Recall from the Lecture on Epidemics and Substance Abuse. The importance of road traffic collisions determining the index of disabilty adjusted life years = years lost of life + years lived with disability.

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Motor Vehicles & Social Policy

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  1. Motor Vehicles & Social Policy 1

  2. Recall from the Lecture on Epidemics and Substance Abuse The importance of road traffic collisions determining the index of disabilty adjusted life years = years lost of life + years lived with disability

  3. Estimated Leading Causes of Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S., 1996 * * * * * * * * * * * Michaud CM, Murray CJL, Bloom BR. JAMA 2001; 285(5):535-539.

  4. Estimated Leading Causes of Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S., 1996 * * * * * * Michaud CM, Murray CJL, Bloom BR. JAMA 2001; 285(5):535-539.

  5. Issues • Private optima & social optima • Government Regulation Versus Market Solutions • Collision Statistics and Risk • Local Traffic: Volume, Collisions, and Congestion • Control of Driving Under the Influence, DUI 5

  6. Part I: Private Optima Vs. Social Optima • The Value of Time and Speeding 6

  7. Value of Time & Speeding 7

  8. Distance = Rate*Time 8

  9. 9

  10. Time saved Time for travel 10

  11. 11

  12. 12

  13. Vehicle CostsVictoria Transport Policy Institute Fixed costs: $ 2884/360 = $8 per day 13

  14. Fixed costs 14

  15. Variable costs $0.14mile* 100 =$14, corrected for inefficiency 15

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  18. Risk of fatality: 1.27 per 100 million miles traveled, or 1.27*10-6 *$1.4 Million or about $2, but U-shaped with speed 18

  19. 19

  20. Part II. Government RegulationVersus the Private Market • self – insurance against risk of accidents • Civil Law-suit for damages • Government Requires Insurance of all Drivers • Uninsured driver • Moral hazard? 20

  21. Part III: Risk of an Accident • Collision Statistics • Number of collisions involving fatalities • Number of Collisions Involving Injuries • Number of Collisions Involving Only Property Damage • Region • US • California • Santa Barbara County • Oxnard-Ventura 21

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  24. Why Did the Number of Fatal Crashes Start Declining? • Safer cars? • Seat belts • Air bags • Safer Roads? • Safer Drivers? 24

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  26. Risk Measures: Per Capita, Per VMT 26

  27. Passenger car involvement down, light trucks & motorcycles up 27

  28. 28

  29. California Trends 29

  30. 30

  31. Oxnard-Ventura 2010 Fatalities 33

  32. Local Traffic & Traffic Measures • Traffic Volume or Counts • Traffic Collisions: Fatal, Injury, Property Damage Only • Traffic Congestion 34

  33. Not Much Change in Traffic Volume 35

  34. Traffic CollisionsSanta Barbara County , Total 36

  35. Traffic CollisionsVentura County, Total 37

  36. Traffic CollisionsSan Luis Obispo County, Total 38

  37. What is Going On In Ventura?Traffic Congestion 39

  38. Ventura CountyVehicle Miles Travelled, VMT 40

  39. Traffic Collisions Involving Injuries,Traffic Congestion & Public Transportation Positive? 41

  40. Spurious Correlation? Difference 42

  41. Traffic Collisions Involving Injuries,Traffic Congestion & Public Transportation Still + 43

  42. Actual, Fitted & Residual 44

  43. Control Of DUI • History: Sweden • Guiding Force: Temperance Movement in Parliament • History: Great Britain • Guiding Force: Physicians • History: US • Guiding Force: MADD, SADD • History: CA 45

  44. NHTSA 46

  45. NHTSA 47

  46. Holidays & DUI 48

  47. Motor Vehicle Drivers in Fatal Collisions By Age, Under the Influence, 2009 CA 49

  48. 50

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