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New Business Creation I From idea to investment

New Business Creation I From idea to investment. ビジネス創造論 Ⅰ. Jay Andrew Smith (jay@eng.kagoshima-u.ac.jp) Associate Professor Inamori Academy, Kagoshima University Spring/Summer 2008. Class 1: Introduction to Venture Business, Industry Analysis & Strategy. Jay Andrew Smith (44).

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New Business Creation I From idea to investment

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  1. New Business Creation IFrom idea to investment ビジネス創造論Ⅰ Jay Andrew Smith (jay@eng.kagoshima-u.ac.jp) Associate Professor Inamori Academy, Kagoshima University Spring/Summer 2008 NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  2. Class 1: Introduction to Venture Business, Industry Analysis & Strategy NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  3. Jay Andrew Smith (44) • 1963 New Jersey, USA • 1985 Rutgers University (Economics経済学, Physics 物理学) • 1989 Harvard Business School (MBA 1989) 日本に始め来ました • 1990 Management Consultant (NY, NJ, Tokyo) • 1992 Venture Business (IT, Internet, email) • 1998 Investment Banker(SF, LA, SV, NY, LV) • Raised $400,000,000 for clients - IPO, Private Investment, M&A • 2004 Kagoshima University, Inamori Academy Professor from 2005 • 日本に初めて来たのは1989年 4月2008年？ • 日経平均株価　３９，０００単位 円 • Dow Jones Indus. ２，７５０点 • ＿＿＿　総理大臣 • ＿＿＿ 大統領 • ＯＳ＝　　 　 １２，９００円 １２, ３００点 QUIZ Ｂｕｓｈ Ｂｕｓｈ 竹下 and 宇野and 海部 DOSV NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  4. Student Introduction • From Kagoshima？___% Other ____% • Course of Study • Electrical Mechanical • Chemical Medical • Bio Nano • Fisheries Other • Lived or studied abroad? • Speak English Well? • First Business Course? • Has “Good” Business Idea? NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  5. Venture Business English(1) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  6. Office Hour: Ｔｕｅｓ： 13:30-15:00 VBL 2F 電話285-3630 Revised Class Schedule 4/15(火)16:10-17:40 ① Intro to Venture Business & Industry Analysis 4/22(火)16:10-17:40 ② Intel Case Study 5/13(火)16:10-17:40 ③ Sales & Marketing 5/27(火)16:10-17:40 ④ Sales & Marketing Case Study 6/3 (火)16:10-17:40 ⑤ Marketing Project Presentations 6/10(火)16:10-17:40 ⑥ Ideas and Innovation 6/17(火)16:10-19:20 ⑦⑧Product & Service Presentations / Finance & Accounting 6/24(火)16:10-17:40 ⑨ Finance & Accounting (continued) 7/1 (火)16:10-17:40 ⑩ Business Models & Plans 7/8 (火)16:10-19:20 ⑪⑫Elevator Pitches / Investment & Valuation 7/15(火)16:10-17:40 ⑬ Presentation Workshop & Review 7/22(火)16:10-19:20 ⑭⑮Presentations 2 Classes Final Report: Team Business Plan Paper By July 29 (火）　 nbc1@bizsmith.com NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  7. Making a Successful Venture Business Strategic Partners, Early Users, Supporters Customer Markets Business Model & Strategy R&D, Production,Operations Sales & Marketing Suppliers, Distributors Capital Yen/ $ Idea Entrepreneur Team NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  8. All Parts Work Together Business & Technology Environments Opportunity Social & Government Environments Business Strategy • Operations • Strategy • Organization • Human Resource • Production • R&D • Finance • Strategy • Leverage • Asset Utilization • Make/buy • Lease/own Marketing Strategy Do strategies support, fit each other, have flexibility, balance/manage risk? NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  9. Famous Venture Business Successes Bloomberg NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  10. Silicon Valley Seminar • 10 Students • September • 5-6 days • IT, Biotech • VC, Lawyers • Stanford • Berkeley NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  11. Japan & Silicon Valley, California NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  12. Japan & Silicon Valley, California Japan 140,000,000日本人 377,835 sq km 磐梯山　N37。38’ California 40,000,000外国人 411,015 sq km SF空港N37。37’ SF SJ Silicon Valley LA 太平洋 SF=San Francisco (サンフランシスコ) SJ=San Jose (サン・ホセ) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith Hawaii ・・

  13. Kagoshima Univ. Silicon Valley Office Silicon Valley • 1849 California Gold Rush San Francisco800人=>24,000人 • 1970~ Silicon Rush • Silicon Chip • Fairchild Semiconductor, Intel • Mix 4-5 million人 • 5 Counties (SF,SM,SC,CC,A) • 外国人： 1st/2nd/3rd世代America, Europe, India, China, MidEast, Russia, Japan • Stanford, UC Berkeley, UCSF, Santa Clara , 他大学 • Lawrence Livermore Government Research Labs Berkeley Oakland NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  14. Birthplace of Silicon Valley 1938 1938: R&D begins on 1st product audio oscillator 1939: Formal partnership Jan 1. Decide name with a coin toss. Sales: $5369. Employees: 2 David Bill Packard & Hewlett 367 Addison Ave, Palo Alto in David Packard’s Garage NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  15. Not So FamousVenture Business Successes(M&A) • TriVida • “Third life” together for management team • Personalization software • Sold to BeFree.com 1999 • BeFree IPO 1999 • SpinPop - Electric Lollipop • John Osher • “Serial Entrepreneur” • Motorized lollipop • Low-cost motor usable in mouth • High-priced electric toothbrush already • Low-priced spin toothbrush SpinBrush Company Sold to P&G for $475 million (475億円) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  16. Bubble IPO Profitable Sales / Funding Business Start-up Idea Most Venture Ideas Don’t Succeed Sales – Costs > 0 NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  17. Making a Successful Venture Business Strategic Partners, Early Users, Supporters Customer Markets Valuable Business Model & Strategy R&D, Production,Operations Sales & Marketing Suppliers, Distributors Capital Yen/ $ Idea Entrepreneur Team NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  18. Successful Venture BusinessCreate Value by Solving Problems Company Problem/Opportunity/Desire • Sony Big radios not portable • FedEx This has to get there overnight • Google I can’t find good information • eBay I have old stuff you will pay for • Microsoft Not everyone is a programmer • Intel These computers are too big • Bloomberg I need best, timely info to invest (financial companies can be great early customers) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  19. Problems Become Opportunities 人間に必要なのは困ることだ。絶体絶命に追い込まれたときに出る力が本当の力です。 本田宗一郎 “What people need is problems. The power that emerges when faced with a problem, where you would lose everything, is your true power.” Souichiro Honda NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  20. Today’s Global Issues • Pollution • Hunger • Oil Shortage • Population Growth • Military Spending • Population Aging • Religious Fundamentalism • China Rising (supplier, consumer, politics, military) • Other __________ NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  21. Japan Issues • Economic Recession • Government Bureaucracy • Small land area/population • Employment dislocations • Oil Shortage • Population Aging • China Rising (supplier, consumer, politics, military) • Humidity • Other __________ NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  22. Making a Successful Venture Business Strategic Partners, Early Users, Supporters Customer Markets Business Model & Strategy R&D, Production,Operations Sales & Marketing Suppliers, Distributors Capital Yen/ $ Idea Entrepreneur Team NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  23. Drucker on Entrepreneurs The entrepreneur always searches for change, responds to it and exploits it as an opportunity. - Peter Drucker 起業家は常に変化を捜し、 それを機会として利用し、対処する。 NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  24. Peter Drucker – Business Guru (1909-2005) • Pioneer of management thinking • Over 30 books on management • Drucker Institute • The Peter F. Drucker Masatoshi Ito Graduate School of Management (Claremont Univ.) • Leader to Leader Institute NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  25. Apple’s Computers Then & Now iPod 6G 160,000,000KB HD First Apple Computer 8KB RAM in 16 Chips NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  26. Microsoft Should Not Exist • IBM dominated PC market • IBM thought hardware was most important • IBM now has no PC hardware at all • Microsoft didn’t create its own first software 仮定とは危険なものである。 アガサ・クリスティ Bill Gates (~1985) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  27. “The Stone Age didn’t end because they ran out of stones.” 石器時代はそれらが石を使い果たしたので終わらなかった --------------Analog Age--------------------------------------- Digital Age control Bio Gene Age Age organic Electronic Quantum Age Age? Electrical Age Mechanical Age energy/info transfer Stone Age Bronze Age Plastics Age Nano Age? material -2000 0 1800 1900 2000年 -4000年 • Solar • Power • wind/water • plants/ fire energy • Animal • Power • 動物 • 人間 Nuclear Power • Renewable • Sun • Wind/tide • Plants Coal/Oil Power network Wired -> Wireless The speed of change is accelerating. NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  28. Entrepreneurs are Innovators Kazuo Kashio （theme: apply electronics, digital) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  29. Entrepreneurs Create New Models “You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes existing models obsolete.” 既存の現実の問題によって決して事を変えてはいけない。 問題を変えるために、既存のモデルを時代遅れにする新モデルを造りなさい。 NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  30. Company Success Factors Company Success = f (company, industry) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  31. Industry Analysis • In which industry does the company participate? • How big is the industry? • How much is the industry growing? • How is the industry changing? • New laws (e.g., pollution) • New technology • Industry profitability? • Structurally attractive industry? NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  32. Toyota Suntory Disney ANA Sony Yahoo Auto, Motor Vehicle, Transportation Equipment Beer, Liquor, Soft Drink, Beverage Movie, Theme Park, TV, Entertainment Airline, Hotel, Travel, Leisure Consumer Electronics, Music, Movie, Entertainment Internet Provider, Ecommerce, News, Media, Advertising Product/Service Areas Application or Broader Category What industries? NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  33. How Big isThe Industry? 輸送 (自動車,船 …) 48兆円 一年間　　 47,993,000,000,000円 • 日本 (2004): 〔円） • Government 82,110,900,000,000 • Defense（陸軍） 4,876,400,000,000 • - Personnel 2,165,400,000,000 • Equipment 880,600,000,000 • National Defense Agency, • Ministry of Finance www.stat.go.jp NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  34. Consumer Electronics (2003) (Japan Production, 2003 METI) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  35. DVD vs Video Consumer Electronics (2003) (Japan Production, 2003 METI) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  36. Japan PC Market 2003 Total = 10 million units NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  37. Industry Life-Cycle SALES Emerging Growing Maturing Declining TIME NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  38. Industry Life-Cycle Stages E G MD NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  39. Venture Companies Often Start in or Create Emerging Industries • New products/services • Unproven market • Little market info • First-time buyers • Know-how developing • Technology changing • “Rules” not set • Structure unsettled • Future uncertain NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  40. Growth, Market Share & Competition • Market share=company’s % of industry sales • Growing industry is often less competitive • If the industry doesn’t grow companies must take customers from other companies to grow. Sales Co. A Co. A Co. A 50% 70% 50% Co. B Co. B Co. B Co. B Co. B 50% 30% 50% 2005 2006 2004 NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  41. 4 Cs Venture Businesses Often enter here Collaborators 協力者/協業者 “5th C” Industry Structure Competitors 競争相手 Channel 販売ルート Customers 顧客 COMPANY Suppliers 製造者 Substitutes 代替製品 NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  42. Competitors ヤマト急便 Channel Customers Suppliers Substitutes Example:　ヤマト急便 NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  43. Example:　ヤマト急便 UPS 佐川、UPS, 郵政省 7-11, Family Mart, 0120 Homes, Offices Vehicles, Fuel, IT ヤマト急便 Fax, Car Others??? NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  44. Company • Who are we? Why are we here? • What are our goals? • What are our strengths? • What are our weaknesses? • What are our key competitive advantages? • What is our market position? • What is our strategy? • What is our business model? NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  45. Kyocera IC Chip Package Intel Processor, MS Windows, Sharp LCD PC User Suppliers • How many? • How big? • Relative Strength • Importance/Value (e.g., keitai strap vs. LCD screen) • Derived Demand NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  46. Channel • How your product service gets to customer • Direct – company’s own network • Sales Force, Mail, Telemarketing, Vending, Some Internet/Catalog, Company Store • Indirect – via one or more other companies • Sales Agents, VAR (value added resellers), Stores (department, convenience, supermarkets, Some Internet/Catalog (e.g. Askul) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  47. Collaborators • Partners, helpers, advisors, experts • Directly or indirectly help the company • Examples • Industry experts, user groups, educators, advisors • Industry or trade groups • Government, NPOs, universities • Complementary product/service providers • Software makers for hardware • Computer magazines, manuals, websites NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  48. Competitors • Who are they? • How many? • What are their goals & strategies? • What are their (relative) strengths? • What are their (relative) weaknesses? • More competitors leads to lower prices • (except maybe in Japan) NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  49. Foot Horse Train Car Plane Substitutes • How else can customer achieve goal? • What are the advantages/disadvantages? • Time, Cost • Quality, Effectiveness • What does it cost customer to switch? • Are there new technologies coming? NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

  50. Competitors Channel Customers ___ Company Suppliers Substitutes In Class Exercise NBC1 2008, (c) 2008　Jay A. Smith

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