Steps to Develop and Analyze VISTAS Control Strategies

1. Steps to Develop and Analyze VISTAS Control Strategies Brock Nicholson Air Directors Meeting Charleston, SC November 15, 2005

2. Presentation • Process for remainder of 2005 • Prescribed fire sensitivity proposed by USFS • Sensitivity to represent BART • Sensitivities for non-CAIR states

3. Process for Remainder of 2005 • Identify BART-eligible sources for control • Sources within entire VISTAS domain, not just Class I geographic areas • Determine possible controls for evaluating reasonable progress • Use geographic area analyses • 200km boundaries • Trajectory, residence plots • Other?

4. Process for Remainder of 2005 • Finalize control technology spreadsheets originally distributed in early 2005 • Determine available control options for source types • Apply constraints as submitted by stakeholders during review • Generate “first cut” incremental benefit emissions inventory

5. Process for Remainder of 2005 • When appropriate, generate new SMOKE/CMAQ runs based on controlled inventory

6. Prescribed Fire Sensitivity • USFS provided future year planned burns by acres and National Forest • Based on forest and smoke management plans • In contrast to existing modeling setup of constant fires in base year and future years

7. National Forest Lands

8. Prescribed Fire Sensitivity • Need to generate spatial data necessary to model new fires • Shape files provided with National Forest land coverage • Assume fire to occur within boundaries of NF forested land

9. Prescribed Fire Sensitivity • Need to generate temporal data necessary to model new fires • Working with CART analysis and other meteorological data to define “best days” for Rx burn • USFS generally burns when conditions are optimal for elevated plumes

10. Prescribed Fire Sensitivity • Originally no additional requested participation from non-USFS agencies

11. BART Sensitivity • Using emissions inventory, identify sources eligible for BART reduction • Apply control technologies as identified in earlier process – lowest level reduction of SO2 and NOx for conservative benefit analysis • Quantify emission reduction by pollutant and grid cell within domain • Modify BaseF CMAQ file to account for these reductions • States review proposed controls before run is completed

12. BART Sensitivity • For EGU’s, propose that CAIR = BART, so no additional controls • Do not apply controls for non-EGU’s with Q/d <10, where Q = SO2 + NOx • Run BART controls through SMOKE/CMAQ for episodes or 2002 annual to determine if CAIR + BART sufficient for uniform reasonable progress

13. Sensitivities for non-CAIR States • CAIR levels as % reduction in NOx/SO2 • All non-CAIR States at once • State-by-State

14. Additional Sensitivities • VISTAS States • Sources not controlled under CAIR/BART/etc. • Non-NOx/SO2 strategies • Offshore marine • Other sources • > 200km • outside areas of initial interest

15. Additional Sensitivities • Non-VISTAS CAIR States • 200km analysis • Trajectory / residence time • Other?