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U.S. Job Futures

U.S. Job Futures. Brian K Toren. Html Version of report. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.htm. 2008 data. The following is based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008. Employment Demand 2008 -2018. Job Supply Increase - 15.3 million by 2018.

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U.S. Job Futures

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  1. U.S. Job Futures Brian K Toren Html Version of report http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.htm

  2. 2008 data The following is based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008

  3. Employment Demand 2008 -2018 Job Supply Increase - 15.3 million by 2018 Workers more racially and ethnically diverse Most Growth in service areas

  4. Worker Spread Where do the workers come from ? White 61.8% Hispanic 17.6% Black 12.1% Asian 5.6% All others 2.9% 55 and older 23.8% 25 – 54 63.5% 16- 24 12.7%

  5. Employment change by detailed occupation • Size makes a difference; • consider 10% growth vs growth in numbers • Company Employees - 150 an absolute growth of 15 employees • Company Employees - 150,000 an absolute growth of 15,000 employees • Of the 20 fastest growing companies in the next 10 years health care accounts for 50 %. However, since cost are rising lower salaried people will be highly desired. • Assistants are doing the work formally done by doctors, nurses and dentist and Home Health Care, also lower paid

  6. Industry Employment Requirements Service Industry will add 14.6 million jobs - 96% Professional and Business 4.2 million Health Care and Services 4.0 million Goods producing 1.9 million Care for Elderly 2.0 million Mgt, Science/Tech consulting, computers sys des 2.1 million All Others 0.4 million Labor Force Table 1 Table 2 – Employment by Major Indiustry Sector Table 3 – 10 Largetst Growth Industries

  7. Service occupations with the largest numerical growth Medical – 4 million jobs Services and Admin support including Gov .- 2.9 million jobs All the rest – 1.9 million jobs Total service jobs - 8.9 million jobs the largest growing Segment Carpenters teachers truck drivers – 1.09 million Total gain – 10 million

  8. Numeric Change service industries 2008-2018

  9. Occupational Employment Table 5 - Employment by major occupational group Table 6 - 30 occupations with the largest employment growth Table 7 - 30 fastest-growing occupations Two major occupational groups – professional and related occupations; and service occupations will account for more than 50% of employment growth. Registered nurses 582 thousand jobs Home health aides 461 thousand jobs Customers Service Reps 400 thousand jobs

  10. Job Losses 2008 – 2011 GREAT Recession job loss 8.5 million Table 4 - 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines Of 10 Industries: Department stores and Semiconducting have the largest employment declines Table 8 - 30 occupations with the largest employment declines Of the 30 occupations projected to have the largest employment declines, 12 are production occupations and 11 are office and administrative support occupations.

  11. The Winners Are! Top Five declining Industries Department Stores Electronic Components Motor Vehicle Parts Postal Service Printing and Related Top Eight declining occupations Farmers and Ranchers Misc Ag Workers Machinists Laborers Clerks Mgrs and Supervisors Product Sampling/Testing Packers and Packagers

  12. Education and Training Table 9 - Employment and total job openings by postsecondary education or training category Occupations that usually require a postsecondary degree (two or four years) are expected to account for almost ½ of new jobs and 1/3 of total job openings. The occupations having the most decline are the ones that use short-term on-the-job training for it’s employees Of 51 million total new job openings that require training, 19.6 million of these will be in the short-term on-the-job training

  13. Employment change by education and training table

  14. Short term on-the-job training Table 10. The 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and replacements, 2008-18 Of the total 50.9 million job openings during the 2008-18 period, 19.6 million of the jobs are expected to be in the short-term on-the-job training category. Sixteen of the 30 detailed occupations with the most job openings will have short-term on-the-job training as the most significant source of education and training.

  15. Where are the jobs going* In the two years following the Wall Street Meltdown, U.S. corporations laid off 500,000 people in the U.S. and hired 729,000 people overseas. When did this trend start? It started in the Late 1970’s when Jack Welch (where is he now?) argued American Corporations owed their primary allegiance to the stockholders, not the employees. *“The Week,” 25 March 2011

  16. Limited to Manufacturing? • Other areas affected: • Software Programmers • Software Design • Computer Design Engineers • Web Designers • Graphic Specialists • Seismologists • Lawyers • Financial Analysts • Local Newspaper Reporters • And more Nope

  17. $ Why? • Salaries for a U.S. software engineer start at $75,000/year, in India they start at $15,000

  18. Is It Working? • Between 1995 and 2008 U.S. domestic product grew at an average of 2.9% while China grew at 9.6 % and India grew at 6.9% • In 2009 47% of the Fortune 500 profits came from outside the U.S. • 2010 3rd Quarter U.S. corporate profits hit an all time high while U.S. unemployment was at 9% Ah-Yup

  19. Where are we now (2011)? Available new workers: 12.6 million plus 8.5 million people laid off since 2008: Supply - Available Workers 21.1 Million Jobs/month – 218,750/month Demand - Available Jobs 15.3 Million Jobs/month – 159,375/month Short by 59,375/month

  20. Fini

  21. Another Disclaimer Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected in- crease in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. Employment and labor force measures differ in concept. Employ- ment is a count of jobs, and persons who hold more than one job would be counted for each job. Labor force is a count of individuals, and a person is counted only once regardless of how many jobs he or she holds. In addition, the BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, that is, one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology, see "Employment projections, 2008-18," Kristina Bartsch, November 2009 Monthly Labor Review.

  22. Total job openings 50,930,000 by 2018 59,430,000 jobs 51,000 per month

  23. Job Availability

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