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Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways

Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways. Initial idea (FORECOM proposal). Refine existing models for Swiss Alps by - including long -term forest cover change perspective - knowledge of lands use / climate contribution to past changes

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Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways

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  1. Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways

  2. Initial idea (FORECOM proposal) • Refineexistingmodelsfor Swiss Alps by • -includinglong-term forestcoverchangeperspective • -knowledgeoflandsuse/climatecontributiontopastchanges • ApplymodelstoPolishCarpathians • -requirescomparabilityofmodelfoundations (data) • in termsofscenariosthisimplies: • -makinguseoffindingsfrom TASK 3-6 • -emphasisingcomparativeaspects

  3. Scenarios in existing Swiss land use models 3 Scenarios (old approach) BAU: business as usual, continuation of observed trends Liberalization: no more support for ag production and conservation-oriented ag Extensification: increased support for conservation-oriented ag 2 axis (new approach) Low vs. High intervention Regional vs. Global

  4. Potential modesofintervention • Forestpolicy: restrictionsfordeforestation, reforestationefforts • AgPolicy: supportforagproduction/conservation-orientedschemes • SpatialPlanning regional to global • Scopeofpolicy • Scaleofdrivingforces

  5. Comparative approach Apply CAP scenarios in Switzerland Apply aspects of Swiss ag and forest policy scenarios to Poland

  6. How to make use of information on long-term forest cover dynamics and drivers of past changes? • Forestcover • -forestage (e.g., strongerprotectionofoldforests, lessstrictdeforestationregulationsorevensupporttoclearrecent in-growth) • Drivers • -Adjustmentof land-usesuitabilitymapsandtransitionprobabilitiesbased on findings in TASK 6

  7. Include new aspects in scenarios? • Energy • -Lorenas suitabilitymaps (energyproductioncouldprevent in-growth) • -changes in wooddemand • -newinfrastucturebeingbuilt • Tourism • -higherurbanizationpressure in touristichotspots • -touristicinfrastructure (transportation,skislopes) • Leakageeffects

  8. Brainstorming Scenarios (PL/CH) • Relevant aspects/driverstobeconsidered in thecontextofforestcoverchanges • Other landusecategoriesinvolved (urbanization/agcatgories) • Istwoaxesframworksuitable • Adjustments/complementaryaxes?

  9. Climate • Guidingprinciple: keepitas simple aspossible • 2 extreme (low/high) and 1 moderate scenario (usenew RCPs) • Run different wellestablished RCMs • Run logicalcombinations (argumentation) of land-useandclimatescenarios

  10. Climate scenarios • Usenew CORDEX RCMs based on theIPCC‘s 5th AR GCMs • http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/ • CORDEX: Coordinated Regional ClimateDownscaling Experiment • The wholeglobeissplitintoregions, resolutionisalways 50 km • Tworegionsareinterestingforus: 4. Europe/ 12. Mediterranean • All simulationsbased on new RCP scenarios.

  11. Climate scenarios • Proposedprocedure • Select few (3-5) RCMs (representing high/mid/lowTave/Prcp) • Select 3 (2.6, 6.0, 8.5) out of 4 RCP scenarios (thelow end scenariosaremoresimilarthanthe high end, seefigurebelow). • Scalethe RCM outputforthesescenariostothe FORECOM studyareas Global Mean T predicted in both the 4th and the 5th IPCC Assessment Report.

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