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Climate Change: What Do the Data Suggest?

Climate Change: What Do the Data Suggest?. Deborah Hughes Hallett Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona Harvard Kennedy School. Minneapolis Metrodome on December 12, 2010, after a 17 inch snowfall (luckily at 5 am). In 2009.

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Climate Change: What Do the Data Suggest?

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  1. Climate Change: What Do the Data Suggest? Deborah Hughes Hallett Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona Harvard Kennedy School

  2. Minneapolis Metrodome on December 12, 2010, after a 17 inch snowfall (luckily at 5 am) In 2009 http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Amazing-before-and-after-pictures-of-the-Metrodo?urn=nfl-295249 and http://www.eurweb.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/metrodome_roof_collapse2010-med-wide.jpg

  3. At least 350,000 people stranded in Europe London Dec 21, 2010 http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-12-21/heathrow-airport-shutdown-whats-the-real-cause/ http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-62886-12.html

  4. Europe’s airports, December 2010 Helsinki, Finland “The last time [the airport] was forced to close because of the weather was in 2003. That closure lasted for half an hour.” Dec 20, BBC London, UK, Dec 17 Frankfurt, Germany, Dec 21 http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-62886-12.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12042213

  5. http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/gallery/2010_2011_snowstormshttp://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/gallery/2010_2011_snowstorms http://boston.cbslocal.com/2011/02/01/bostons-top-ten-snow-storms-of-all-time/ Boston, Winter 2011 Jan 21, 2011 Jan 27, 2011 Snow Measurements at Logan Airport: 1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5”2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1”3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3”4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4”5. January 22-23, 2005 22.5”6. January 20-21, 1978 21.4”7. March 3-5, 1960 19.8”8. February 16-17, 1958 19.4”9. February 8-10, 1994 18.7”10. January 7-8, 1996 18.2”10. December 20-22, 1975 18.2”10. December 26-27, 2010 18.2”

  6. “Bundle Up, It’s Global Warming”Judah Cohen, December 25, 2010, NY Timeshttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1 “All of this cold was met with perfect comic timing by the release of a World Meteorological Organization report showing that 2010 will probably be among the three warmest years on record, and 2001 through 2010 the warmest decade on record.” On Dec 29, 2010: Climate Change Dispatch writes: “George Ifft, the American consul at Bergen, Norway, reported in 1922 the disappearance of icebergs….” http://climatechangedispatch.com/home/8388-snow-blind

  7. What Has Happened to Date: • Temperatures rose 1-2 F during 1906-2005 • Sea level rise: • In UK, increases of 2-4 inches since 1920 • In India, about 0.12 inches a year until 2000, since then, about 0.2 inches annually • Carbon dioxide, CO2, in atmosphere increased from 316 ppm in 1959 to 386 ppm in 2008. (CO2 is believed by many to warm the planet.) From Tom Pfaff and http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/stateofknowledge.html and http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html#mlo and http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/03/24/world/main6329339.shtml and http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climate_change/data/data.aspx

  8. Average Global Temperature http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt

  9. Hockey Stick Graphintroduced in 1998 by Michael Mann Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A nearly yearlong effort by Attorney General Kenneth T. Cuccinelli II of Virginia to force the University of Virginia to turn over the documents of a prominent climatologist is headed to the state’s Supreme Court. John Collins Rudolf, New York Times March 12, 2011 http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/12/hearing-is-set-in-climate-fraud-case/

  10. Sea Level Rise in UK Aberdeen in northeast and Newlyn in southwest 100 mm is about 4 inches http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climate_change/data/data.aspx

  11. Alaska “Future sea-level rise is an important issue related to the continuing buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.” Alley, Richard B., Peter U. Clark, Philippe Huybrechts, and Ian Joughin (2005). "Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes". Science 310 Pictures from www.globalwarmingart.com

  12. Pictures from www.globalwarmingart.com

  13. The Arctic Sept 12, 2009 “two merchant ships completed an historic shortcut over the once ice-bound top of the world.” http://drake.marin.k12.ca.us/academics/rock/bears_files/polar-ice-caps-melting.jpg http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1213025/Melting-ice-cap-opens-Northeast-Passage-British-ships.html#ixzz1BS647LMq http://euobserver.com/9/26723

  14. Carbon Dioxide Levels http://cdiac.ornl.gov/new/keel_page.html

  15. Modeling Carbon Dioxide Levels http://cdiac.ornl.gov/new/keel_page.html

  16. http://www.theozonehole.com/cfc.htm Montreal Treaty and CFCs: Signed September 16, 1987; went into force January 1, 1989

  17. http://www.theozonehole.com/cfc.htm Montreal Treaty and CFCs: Signed September 16, 1987; went into force January 1, 1989

  18. What are the Projected Growth Patterns? • The carbon dioxide level increased by 1.3 ppm per year: Linear (if continued) • The carbon dioxide level increased at a continuous rate of 0.4% per year (an annual increase of 0.4%): Exponential (if continued) • The CFC usage decreased at a continuous rate of 18.7% per year (an annual decrease of 18.3%): Exponential (if continued)

  19. Teaching Opportunities: Rates of Change and Projections • Slope • Linear and exponential growth • Change and percent change • Rate of change and percent rate of change • The number e • Continuous and annual rate of change • Extrapolation and interpolation Question: Are the changes significant?

  20. Richard Lindzen, Meteorologist, MITdoesn’t believe warming will be substantialhttp://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Richard_S._Lindzenhttp://www.heartland.org/events/NewYork09/ • "I think it's [concern about global warming] mainly just like little kids locking themselves in dark closets to see how much they can scare each other and themselves." http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Richard_S._Lindzen • NOVEMBER 30, 2009 • “The Climate Science Isn't Settled: Confident predictions of catastrophe are unwarranted.” • http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703939404574567423917025400.html

  21. What is Predicted for the Future? • Temperatures will rise about 3˚C (so 5-6˚F) over the next century, perhaps accelerating • Polar ice caps and Greenland’s ice sheet will melt further • Sea levels will rise about 1 meter over the next century, leading to flooding • Carbon dioxide in atmosphere will increase, perhaps accelerating From Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ and http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt

  22. Why Are Ice Caps and Glaciers Melting? • Average global temperature is rising • Past decade was warmest on record • Why is the temperature rising? • Due to increase in greenhouse gasses in atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide (CO2) • What causes the increase in CO2? • This is where the controversy lies: • Man-made or natural? • Systematic trend or random fluctuations? • How much change will there be in the future?

  23. What is the Evidence that CO2 Causes Temperature to Increase? • Two types of evidence: • Data shows an association • A scientific mechanism • Historical data shows temperature and CO2 tend to fluctuate together—but the relationship might not be causal • There is a scientific mechanism explaining how an increase in CO2 causes temperature increases • But some still doubt that the changes are large enough to be a problem

  24. What is the Effect of Increasing Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere? Data http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt and http://cdiac.ornl.gov/new/keel_page.html

  25. Other Ways of Looking at the Same Data Data http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt and http://cdiac.ornl.gov/new/keel_page.html

  26. Evidence of Association Graph of carbon dioxide (CO2) (green), temperature (blue), and dust concentration (red) measured from the Vostok, Antarctica, ice core …(Petit et al. 1999). The close correspondence between carbon dioxide changes and temperature changes is a characteristic feature of the recent ice ages …… the greenhouse gas feedbacks indicated here are believed to be responsible for most of the ice age climate change …… (Weaver et al. 1998). Higher dust levels are characteristic of cold, dry periods.

  27. Teaching Opportunities: Carbon Dioxide and Average Temperature • Graphs • Axes and scales • Correlation • Range of values • Interpretation • Relation to causation • Establishing causation • Scientific mechanism

  28. Is the Temperature Rise Significant? Practical versus Statistical Significance

  29. http://www.brophygen.com/ Sea levels will rise about 1 meter over the next century http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/slrmaps_ne_mass.html

  30. At Risk of Flooding from Sea Level Rise Maps all from Sea Level Explorer, www.globalwarmingart.com

  31. Nepal Cabinet Meeting: Everest Base Camp Dec 4, 2009 Maldives Cabinet Meeting: President Nasheed Oct 17, 2009 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=121079253 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/04/content_12588821.htm http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/6356036/Maldives-government-holds-underwater-cabinet-meeting.html

  32. Island sinks below waves • Wed 24 March 2010 “For nearly 30 years, India and Bangladesh have argued over control of a tiny rock island in the Bay of Bengal. Now rising sea levels have resolved the dispute for them: the island's gone.” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/cif-green/2010/mar/24/india-bangladesh-sea-levels http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/rising-seas-claim-island-at-centre-of-30year-dispute-1927002.html http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/03/24/world/main6329339.shtml

  33. Is the Temperature Rise Significant? Practical versus Statistical Significance

  34. http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/ Nenana Ice Classic, Alaska Putting up tripod; March 6, 2011 April 23, 2010

  35. Is the Ice Breaking Significantly Earlier?

  36. Teaching Opportunities: Temperature and Nenana Ice Classic • Linear Regression • Interpolation and extrapolation • Interpretation of Slope • Confidence Intervals • P-value • Practical versus Statistical significance

  37. “Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa” M. Burke at al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Dec 8, 2009 Panel regression of civil war incidence suggests that increases in temperature are more strongly related to an increase in civil wars than are changes in precipitation. (Previous studies suggested precipitation was important because if its role in agriculture.) The next slide shows the predicted change in civil wars till 2030.

  38. Analysis in “Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa” predicts a roughly 54% increase in civil war conflicts by 2030

  39. Civil War: Somali Piracy 17 January 2011 “Maritime piracy costs the global economy between $7 billion and $12 billion a year” http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE70G09720110117 From NATO March 17. 2011 At 0612 UTC / 17 MAR / a merchant vessel was reported under attack by 1 skiff from nearby suspected pirate mothership SINAR KUDUS. http://www.shipping.nato.int/CounterPir/copy_of_copy_of_SOMALIAPIR http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/18/report-2010-was-worst-year-yet-for-piracy-on-high-seas/ Why Somalia? For 20 years, there’s been no government http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8010061.stm

  40. Teaching Opportunities: Climate Data and Civil Wars • Descriptive statistics • Percentage vs. percentage point • Median, interquartile range • Box plots, error bars • Regression tables • Linear functions of several variables • Significance levels • Parameter estimates • Standard errors • Bootstrap simulations

  41. How Good Is the Data We Are Using? • How can we check? • What biases might it have? • Who collected it? • Why was it collected? • Compare with other data sets

  42. Temperature Global mean land-ocean temperature index, 1880 to present. The dotted black line is the annual mean and the solid red line is the five-year mean. Green bars show uncertainty estimates. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif

  43. US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Compared Internationally http://cait.wri.org/figures.php?page=/USToIntlGHGMap-Regions

  44. Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/) Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Carbon dioxide data from Mauna Loa started by David Keeling in March of 1958. The red line is the monthly mean values. The black line represents the same, after correction for the average seasonal cycle.

  45. Charles David Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, data on carbon dioxide has been collected since the 1950s with Dave Keeling’s “legendary exactitude” http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/22/science/earth/22carbon.html http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/21/does-the-keeling-curve-still-need-a-keeling/ http:// e-education.psu.edu

  46. Keeling Oxygen Curve Ralph Keeling has produced a record of atmospheric levels of oxygen. … that is helping scientists understand what to expect from climate in the future. http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/home/index.php In his colleagues’ view, he has established a record of painstaking measurement that nearly matches his father’s legendary exactitude. http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/21/does-the-keeling-curve-still-need-a-keeling/#more-85421

  47. Teaching Opportunities: Carbon Dioxide Levels • Curve fitting and prediction: • Linear, exponential, periodic • Long-term behavior of functions • Averages and smoothing • Calculus: • Optimization • Least squares

  48. Issues for Discussion • How should we balance context and quantitative methods? • How do we teach students to transfer a quantitative technique from one context to another? • What is the best way to get students up to speed if they know little about the context? • How can weinclude students with different political perspectives?

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