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GLOBAL RESPONSE OF U.S. MILITARY CAPTAIN WIL GRANADOS CAPTAIN CLIFF WAKEMAN

GLOBAL RESPONSE OF U.S. MILITARY CAPTAIN WIL GRANADOS CAPTAIN CLIFF WAKEMAN. BACKSTORY. REAL-WORLD PROBLEM. Conflict between North Korea and South Korea China is in alliance with North Korea US to send 500 companies to Eastern Asia Conflict between Iran and Iraq

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GLOBAL RESPONSE OF U.S. MILITARY CAPTAIN WIL GRANADOS CAPTAIN CLIFF WAKEMAN

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  1. GLOBAL RESPONSE OF U.S. MILITARY CAPTAIN WIL GRANADOS CAPTAIN CLIFF WAKEMAN

  2. BACKSTORY

  3. REAL-WORLD PROBLEM • Conflict between North Korea and South Korea • China is in alliance with North Korea • US to send 500 companies to Eastern Asia • Conflict between Iran and Iraq • North African countries in alliance with Iran • US to send 1000 companies to Middle East • Tsunami devastated Pacific coastline of South America • US to send 250 companies to Southern South America

  4. ANALYSIS QUESTIONS • What is the optimal minimum cost flow for our given • scenario with no attacks? • What are the optimalattack plans on our network? • What are the optimal responses given the various attacks? • Is it possible to completely stop the US from supplying • troops to the regions of interest?

  5. THE WORLD

  6. GLOBAL NODE LAYOUT ARCTIC REGION GREENLAND RUSSIA CANADA RAMSTEIN AB EASTERN ASIA EUROPE WESTERN ASIA MCB PENDLETON MCB LEJEUNE INCIRLIK AB MIDDLE EAST CHINA CARIBBEAN MCB OKINAWA MEXICO AL UDEID AB MCB HAWAII NORTH AFRICA MALAYSIA CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA PAYA LEBAR AB SOUTH AFRICA AUSTRALIA SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ANTARCTICA

  7. GLOBAL NETWORK

  8. ABSTRACT NETWORK

  9. NODES DATA • Supply for bases • MCB_Pendleton 600 MCB_Lejeune 600 • MCB_Okinawa 450 Ramstein_AB450 • MCB_Hawaii300 Incirlik_AB 300 • Udeid_AB 150 Leber_AB150 • Demand for regions • Middle_East 1000 • Eastern_Asia 500 • Southern_SouthAmerica 250 • 1 unit supply/demand = 1 company of Marines (~200 Marines)

  10. ARCS DATA • Distance • scaled, relative, abstract map units (AMU) • Capacity • 400 if Distance ≤ 20 AMU • 300 if 20 AMU < Distance ≤ 40 AMU • 200 if Distance > 40 AMU • CostFactor • 1 if arc source node is a base • 1.3 if arc source node is a region • Cost[MOE] • Distance × CostFactor × $100,000 / 27

  11. MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION • X and W interdictions derived in dual MIP • Total cost = Primal objective value - nCmax∑(unsatisfied supply)

  12. ATTACKS ON NETWORK • Alliance Attack • Country in alliance with aggressor, • cutting off flow into region containing country • Resource Attack • Country attacking one of our bases, • cutting off flow into or out of that base • Political Attack • Country forming pact with other country, • forcing use of more expensive alternate routes

  13. MODELING ATTACKS • Attacks on nodes • Manual setting of unusable region (alliance) • Optimal interdiction of bases (resources) • numberResourceAttacks ≤ 8 • Attacks on arcs • Optimal interdiction of arcs (political) • numberPoliticalAttacks ≤ 8

  14. SCENARIO 0 NO ATTACKS

  15. MINIMUM COST FLOW WITH NO ATTACKS GLOBAL RESPONSE OF US MILITARY ****************************************** nCmax = 7670000 ****************************************** Solution to MinCostFlow with no network interdictions: MCB_Lejeune --> Northern_Sou --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Lejeune --> Southern_Sou --> 200.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Incirlik_AB --> 100.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Europe --> 50.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Middle_East --> 300.0 unit(s) Incirlik_AB --> Middle_East --> 400.0 unit(s) Udeid_AB --> Middle_East --> 150.0 unit(s) Lebar_AB --> Middle_East --> 100.0 unit(s) Lebar_AB --> Eastern_Asia --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Okinawa --> China --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Okinawa --> Eastern_Asia --> 400.0 unit(s) Northern_Sou --> Southern_Sou --> 50.0 unit(s) Europe --> Middle_East --> 50.0 unit(s) China --> Eastern_Asia --> 50.0 unit(s) Supply and demand not satisfied: MCB_Hawaii --> -300.0 unit(s) MCB_Pendleton--> -600.0 unit(s) MCB_Lejeune --> -350.0 unit(s) Total cost = $160,722,221 ****************************************** Political attack plan with 0 attack(s): ****************************************** Resource attack plan with 0 attack(s): ******************************************

  16. MINIMUM COST FLOW WITH NO ATTACKS Solution to MinCostFlow with interdictions in place: MCB_Lejeune --> Northern_Sou --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Lejeune --> Southern_Sou --> 200.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Incirlik_AB --> 100.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Europe --> 50.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Middle_East --> 300.0 unit(s) Incirlik_AB --> Middle_East --> 400.0 unit(s) Udeid_AB --> Middle_East --> 150.0 unit(s) Lebar_AB --> Middle_East --> 100.0 unit(s) Lebar_AB --> Eastern_Asia --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Okinawa --> China --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Okinawa --> Eastern_Asia --> 400.0 unit(s) Northern_Sou --> Southern_Sou --> 50.0 unit(s) Europe --> Middle_East --> 50.0 unit(s) China --> Eastern_Asia --> 50.0 unit(s) Supply and demand not satisfied: MCB_Hawaii --> -300.0 unit(s) MCB_Pendleton--> -600.0 unit(s) MCB_Lejeune --> -350.0 unit(s) Total cost = $160,722,221 ****************************************** Primal objective = 9748222083.0 Dual objective = 9748222083.0 ****************************************** END OF OUTPUT

  17. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  18. SCENARIO 1 ALLIANCE ATTACKS ONLY Alliance Attack Country in alliance with aggressor, cutting off flow into region containing country

  19. ALLIANCE ATTACKS • Alliance attacks • China • Northern_Africa • Remaining supply • MCB_Hawaii 300 • MCB_Pendleton 600 • MCB_Lejeune 350 • Total cost: $161,000,000

  20. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  21. SCENARIO 2 RESOURCE ATTACKS ONLY • Resource Attack • Country attacking one of our bases, cutting off flow into or out of that base

  22. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  23. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  24. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  25. MINIMUM COST FLOW WITH RESOURCE ATTACKS

  26. OPERATOR RESILIENCE CURVE 13422 12293 11148 8969 6678 3273 602 399 161

  27. SCENARIO 3 POLITICAL ATTACKS ONLY Political Attack Country forming pact with other country, forcing use of more expensive alternate routes

  28. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  29. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  30. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  31. MINIMUM COST FLOW WITH POLITICAL ATTACKS

  32. OPERATOR RESILIENCE CURVE 3963 2518 2029 681 293 261 237 209 161

  33. SCENARIO 4 ALLIANCE ATTACKS + RESOURCE ATTACKS

  34. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  35. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  36. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  37. MINIMUM COST FLOW WITH ALLIANCE ATTACKS AND RESOURCE ATTACKS

  38. OPERATOR RESILIENCE CURVE 13422 12293 11148 8972 6681 3666 719 415 161

  39. SCENARIO 5 ALLIANCE ATTACKS + POLITICAL ATTACKS

  40. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  41. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  42. COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT

  43. MINIMUM COST FLOW WITH ALLIANCE ATTACKS AND POLITICAL ATTACKS

  44. OPERATOR RESILIENCE CURVE 3963 3985 2518 1059 317 293 261 237 161

  45. SCENARIO 6 RESOURCE ATTACKS + POLITICAL ATTACKS

  46. MINIMUM COST FLOW WITH RESOURCE ATTACKS AND POLITICAL ATTACKS

  47. SCENARIO 7 ALLIANCE ATTACKS + RESOURCE ATTACKS + POLITICAL ATTACKS

  48. MINIMUM COST FLOW WITH ALLIANCE ATTACKS, RESOURCE ATTACKS, AND POLITICAL ATTACKS

  49. WITH MORE TIME… • Add more bases • One node for each country • Multiple arcs based on mode of transportation • Adjust nodal reach based on resource limitations • Refine arc capacities and cost factors • Allow more resource and political attacks

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