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The State of Retailing Online 2013

The State of Retailing Online 2013. Sucharita Mulpuru, VP & Principal Analyst Forrester Research. Online retail is the pawn that is now queen. Online retail: double-digit growth. Online November-December sales as a % of total web sales. 15% year-over-year growth in 2012 over 2011.

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The State of Retailing Online 2013

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  1. The State of Retailing Online 2013 Sucharita Mulpuru, VP & Principal Analyst Forrester Research

  2. Online retail is the pawn that is now queen

  3. Online retail: double-digit growth

  4. Online November-December sales as a % of total web sales 15% year-over-year growth in 2012 over 2011 Source: Forrester Research

  5. Base: 60 retailers Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research

  6. State of Retailing Online Study • 10 years+ of data gathered with the goal of benchmarking • A survey of retailers primarily drawn from the Shop.org and NRF community • Extensive details, typically long surveys, 50-100 respondents on average

  7. Agenda • Recap of 2012 • Implications for 2013 and beyond

  8. 1. “Mobile first”

  9. Total phone and tablet sessions: Holiday 2012 Source: Monetate(aggregated session data)

  10. US Mobile Commerce (excludes tablets) $B Top M-Commerce Categories Media Consumer electronics Apparel Source: Forrester Research Mobile Commerce Forecast, 2012 to 2017 (US) Note: Excludes tablet commerce and game/app downloads, auctions

  11. Retailers seem to be a little gun-shy about hype Facebook Groupon

  12. Which is why companies are actually thinking “site first” Top Digital Initiatives for 2013 (# of Retailers Responding) Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester

  13. 2. “Holding out for a (social) hero” “…And e-commerce will become increasingly important to Facebook, as it builds its recently launched Gifts business. The e-commerce platform—which lets users send goods, like…gift cards and cookies, to friends—poses a threat to Amazon, especially as Facebook adds more retail partners.” Wall Street Journal, December 25, 2012

  14. How did you learn about these special deals [from today’s purchase]? Thanksgiving Weekend Pre-Thanksgiving Cyber Monday) 2011 2012 Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012

  15. This is the low-hanging fruit that still gets ignored

  16. Social is a tool more than a weapon

  17. 3. The last-mile obsession

  18. But the smart retailers are “castling”

  19. That’s why “multichannel” still makes the list Top Digital Initiatives for 2013 (# of Retailers Responding) Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research

  20. 26% Sweden 16% 26% Netherlands UK United States Germany 15% France 27% 10% Base: 2,000 UK online adults, 2,000 Swedish online adults, 2,000 Dutch online adults, 2,000 German online adults, 2,065 Spanish online adults, 2,122 Italian online adults, 2,000 French online adults, n/a; Source: European Technographics Retail, Customer Experience, And Travel Online Survey, Q3 2010; North American Technographics Retail Online Survey, Q3 2009 (US) Italy Spain 12% 14% % = % of respondents who have purchased from online retailers outside the US = % of respondents who have purchased from online retailers outside of Europe %

  21. Agenda • Recap of 2012 • Implications for 2013 and beyond

  22. What to expect moving forward • With mobile, it will get a lot worse before it gets better • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night • Relentless innovation will continue • Be prepared for the party to end

  23. Intent among men 18-34 Future “showrooming” intention Less 4% Less 4% About the same 49% More 47% More 37% Base: 187 male smartphone owners About the same 59% Intent among women 18-34 Less 2% More 31% Base: 942 smartphone owners Q: Do you think you will use your smartphone to research prices more or less in the future? About the same 67% Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012 Base: 209 female smartphone owners

  24. Q: Which of the following might have persuaded you to have purchased the product/brand you were researching on a smartphone while shopping in a physical store from the store or from its website. Please select all that apply. . Base: 153 smartphone owners who purchased products at other stores or did not purchase Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012

  25. Q: In which categories were the products you were researching or checking prices on your smartphone while shopping in a physical store? Please select all that apply. Base: 415 smartphone owners who recently researched prices in stores Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012

  26. What to expect moving forward • With mobile, it will get a lot worse before it gets better • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night • Relentless innovation will continue • Be prepared for the party to end

  27. Amazon’s global marketplace revenue dwarfs its profit US$MM Source: Forrester estimates; GMV=gross merchandise value, the total value paid by shoppers in a transaction

  28. “How does your membership in a shipping club or program affect your shopping frequency?” “Are you a member of a shipping club or program (i.e. Amazon Prime, Shoprunner or Williams-Sonoma Reserve)?” N: 776 shipping club members Source: Bizrate/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2010, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012

  29. vs. a competitor “2-day shipping” 6 days away $13 $20 for next day!

  30. What to expect moving forward • With mobile, it will get a lot worse before it gets better • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night • Relentless innovation will continue • Be prepared for the party to end

  31. 2008 2010 2012 Flash sales Daily deals Subscriptions

  32. Curated commerce? Distributed commerce? Crowdsourced commerce?

  33. What to expect moving forward • With mobile, it gets a lot worse before it gets better • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night • Relentless innovation will continue • Be prepared for the party to end

  34. November 2012 December 2012 Source: Chase Paymentech Solutions

  35. Shopper saturation?? Deal fatigue?? % agreeing with statement: “I shopped in stores less because I shopped online instead.” +10% -5% -8% Base: online shoppers during Thanksgiving weekend Base: pre-Thanksgiving online buyers Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2010, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012

  36. “…no one was hurt, but many were disappointed.”

  37. Wrap up • Responsive design for now, the next chapter may take a little while to be written • Learn from the innovators, they are often just product features anyway • Be prepared for tougher times • But for physical stores, that’s actually good news…

  38. …so long as we see less of this

  39. Sucharita Mulpuru smulpuru@forrester.com Twitter: @smulpuru

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