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Marta G. VINOCUR, Andrea V. RIVAROLA and Roberto A. SEILER U NIVERSITY OF RÍO CUARTO- Argentina

CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE USES OF THE CLIMATE INFORMATION IN THE AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OF CENTRAL ARGENTINA. Marta G. VINOCUR, Andrea V. RIVAROLA and Roberto A. SEILER U NIVERSITY OF RÍO CUARTO- Argentina Paper prepared for Open Meeting of Global Environmental Change Research Community

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Marta G. VINOCUR, Andrea V. RIVAROLA and Roberto A. SEILER U NIVERSITY OF RÍO CUARTO- Argentina

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  1. CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE USES OF THE CLIMATE INFORMATION IN THE AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OF CENTRAL ARGENTINA Marta G. VINOCUR, Andrea V. RIVAROLA and Roberto A. SEILER UNIVERSITY OF RÍO CUARTO-Argentina Paper prepared for Open Meeting of Global Environmental Change Research Community 6-8 October 2001

  2. Córdoba Province Argentina Study area

  3. OBJECTIVES • To understand how climate information is actually used and may be used in the future by policymakers and end users, to improve decisiones in the agricultural sector and to mitigate the negative impact of climate hazards • To know stakeholders perception of climate risks and how they incorporate climate information in their decision-making process, according to the political context and to the underlying level of farmers’ vulnerability

  4. Materials and Methods • In each municipio (county), we conducted a rapid appraisal to determine the range of variation in farm type and size, access to resources, infrastructure, etc through interviewing key informant and focus-group. • A random sample of farmers (approximately 10% of the total number) was chosen for individual interviews (survey) reflecting the differences in farm/households types. • Qualified groups, according to decision making levels (grain dealers, cooperative managers, local utilities providers, regional farmers consortium managers, municipio authorities, etc.), were also interviewed.

  5. Materials and MethodsSurvey • Socio-economic characteristics of each household/farm (farm size, farm type, tenure, technology applied, access to capital, off-farm income, education, etc.) • Importance and sources of weather information; users’ knowledge of regional climate; users’ attitudes to climate and weather forecast; users’ perception of the value of climate forecast (credibility, ability to respond, etc.); users’ preferences about timing, format and content of a climate forecast. • Surveys’ compilation and data analysis were done using an statistical package (SPSS).

  6. Socio-economic characteristics • Farmers’ age 30-45 years 29% 45-60 years 45% > 60 years 21% • Education level Primary 51% High 26% Univer. 21% • Farm size > 2000 ha 4 % 500-2000 ha 42% 250-500 ha 33% < 250 ha 21%

  7. Socio-economic characteristics • Farm type Mixed type > agric. 35% > livestock 25% equal 30% soybean 88%;maize 96%; peanut 26% • Land tenure owner 93% tenant 3% • Rent more land 55% • Request of credit 50% • Applied technology crop rotation 100% no till 46% hybrid seeds+pesticide+herbicide 95% irrigation 3%; fertilizers 59%

  8. Type of climate information received by the farmer Climate Forecast None 3.8% 16.2% Climate+Weather For. 18.1% Weather Forecast 61.9%

  9. Weather and Climate Information Related to FarmersAge

  10. Weather and Climate Information Related to Farmers’ education level

  11. Farmer's perception of ENSO impacts on regional climate 80 70 67 60 50 Percent 40 30 20 17 10 11 0 Niño>rain-Niña<rain Not understand impact Niño<rain-Niña>rain Never heard about them Farmer's perception

  12. Farmer’s perception of ENSO impacts related to age

  13. Perception of ENSO related to farmers’ education level

  14. Influence of climate information on farmers’ managemet decisiones related to farmers’age

  15. Influence of climate information on farmers’ management decisiones related to farmers’education level

  16. Weather and climate forecast: farmers' credibility 40 33 30 27 Percent 20 14 10 9 9 8 0 Improve cred. Climate-less cred. Climate-high cred. Weather-High cred. None are credible Weather-Climate Cred Climate:No credible

  17. Weather and climate forecast: obstacles to their use Lack of interest 5.8% Not credibles 15.4% Bad distr.channels 3.8% Very general None 8.7% 58.7% Tables/charts unclear 1.9% Difficult to understand 5.8%

  18. Farmers' management decisions are also influenced by: 30 30 25 23 23 20 Percent 10 0 Exp.National Prices Exp. prices and prod Exp.Nat.-Int. prices none

  19. Other information used in management decisions related to farmers’age

  20. Other information used in management decisions related to farmers’ education level

  21. Which decisions would you probably change in response to a climate forecast: • crop mix (area planted) 54% • plant density 76% • pesticide and fertlizer amount 55% • planting date 69% • other type 2% Characteristics of an useful climate forecast • Timing • Content: spring rainfall; spring rainfall+summer temperat. • Format: means; means+actual data;comparison with past years; above normal, near normal or below normal with the associated probabilities. Graphs only - 37%; tables only - 8%; tables and graphs - 43%; explanations - 11%

  22. Weather and climate information, obstacles to their use related to farmers’ age

  23. Weather and climate information, obstacles to their use related to farmers’ education level

  24. Other inst. and prevention agencies

  25. CONCLUSIONS Users of climate and weather information required: • Forecast tailored to their needs • Improve accuracy, timing and format • Downscale temporally and spatially to users’ specific locations To promote climate forecast use, it is necessary: • to improve users’ knowledge about regional weather and climate • to educate users about the differences between weather and climate forecasts. • to analyze institutional ways of dissemination of climate information • to improve communication between researchers and end users

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