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Middlebury, VT

Middlebury, VT. Future of Retail Study May 28, 2014. Today’s Presentation. “What We Heard” input summary Market Data Online Survey Results Market Definition Zip Code Survey/Trade Area Definition Demographics Retail Leakage/Opportunities Emerging Recommendations/Next Steps.

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Middlebury, VT

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  1. Middlebury, VT Future of Retail Study May 28, 2014

  2. Today’s Presentation • “What We Heard” input summary • Market Data • Online Survey Results • Market Definition • Zip Code Survey/Trade Area Definition • Demographics • Retail Leakage/Opportunities • Emerging Recommendations/Next Steps

  3. “What We Heard”: Strengths • Quality customer service • Shopping locations are convenient to home and work • Good restaurants • Downtown is walkable • Appearance is generally pleasing • Traffic flow downtown has improved • Unique retail offerings • Distinct identities associated with Downtown/Marble Works, Exchange Street, and Route 7 South • Middlebury values shopping local

  4. “What We Heard”: Weaknesses • Parking • Consistent store hours/staying open late • Variety of retail offerings • Accessibility to stores in winter • Communicating what retail offerings are available in Middlebury

  5. “What We Heard”: Opportunities • Partnership with Middlebury College • Property behind library • Growth at Marble Works and along Exchange Street • Town Hall redevelopment • Rail tunnel

  6. “What We Heard”: Challenges • Traffic flow/safety on Exchange Street and Route 7 South • Wayfinding in Marble Works (only one way out) • Perception that Downtown is just for tourists • Reconciling opinions on what types of stores are appropriate for the community and where • Competing with door-to-door sales and online services

  7. Market Data: Online Survey • Top customer survey response ever conducted by Arnett Muldrow • 1,065 respondents • 76% of respondents live in 05753 zip code (Middlebury, East Middlebury, Cornwall, and Weybridge) • 72% Female, 28% Male • Few Middlebury College student participants.

  8. Market Data: Online Survey • 76% strongly AGREE that shopping local is important • Only 5% strongly agree that they can find everything they need in Middlebury; 67% DISAGREE • Most respondents (56%) strongly DISAGREE that retail development outside of Downtown will erode the quality of Middlebury; 9% strongly AGREE • 68% strongly AGREE that additional retail will keep more customers in Middlebury; 3% DISAGREE • In the aggregate, respondents ranked price, quality, then local as the key factors in retail, respectively

  9. Market Data: Online Survey

  10. Market Data: Online Survey

  11. Market Data: Online Survey

  12. Market Data: Online Survey

  13. Qualitative Input • Top words mentioned as desired: clothing, restaurant, department store • “Big box” mentioned twenty four times: 18 in favor, 6 not in favor • Ames mentioned 34 times with only 2 negative comments

  14. Market Data: Zip Code Survey Week of April 29 – May 6 • 19 merchants participated • 2,511 customer visits recorded • 230 unique zip codes • 32 States • 3 Provinces • 4 foreign countries (Canada, Germany, Japan, Egypt) • 4 continents

  15. Market Data: Market Definition

  16. Market Data: Market Definition Local Market (Not Including Students)

  17. Market Data: Market Definition Student Market

  18. Market Data: Trade Areas • Trade areas indicate who Middlebury’s most loyal customers are in terms of number of trips to participating retailers • The primary and secondary trade areas (PTA and STA) are the areas from which most of Middlebury’s shoppers are originating per the zip code survey • Population distorts the relative number of visits to Middlebury from the zip codes recorded, so displaying visits in terms of 1,000 people better represents customer loyalty in Middlebury

  19. Market Data: Trade Areas

  20. Market Data: Trade Areas • 05753 Middlebury and 05766 clearly stand out as the primary trade area • Roughly two-thirds of all patrons originated in the PTA or STA, indicating a strong local customer base • The high visits per 1,000 population signify a very loyal customer base across the board

  21. Market Data: Market Definition

  22. Market Data: Customer Base

  23. Market Data: PTA Demographics • Despite a relatively young population, the PTA has relatively high household income, which are attractive for retail • Age: Median 34, Average 39 • HH Income: Median $47,553, Average $62,918 • Expected stagnation/decline in population will likely be a challenge for retail moving forward • 2000-2010 grew 3.3% • 2013 population: 10,934 • 2013-2018 expected growth: -0.72%

  24. Market Data: Retail Market Potential • Leakage is the amount of local dollars being spent outside the community (Middlebury consumer purchases exceed Middlebury retail sales) • Inflow is the amount of outside dollars being spent inside the community (Middlebury retail sales exceed Middlebury consumer purchases)

  25. Market Data: RMP

  26. Market Data: RMP

  27. Market Data: RMP

  28. Market Data: Interpretation How big is the market? • Consumer expenditures are… • $242.9M in the PTA • $91.5M in the STA • meaning there’s a combined $334.4M market • The PTA is bringing in a net of $73M, while the STA is leaking a net of $42.1M.

  29. Market Data: Retail Gaps • Primary Trade Area • Annual Consumer Expenditures: $242.9M • Annual Retail Sales: $315.8M • Annual Inflow: $72.9M • Secondary Trade Area • Annual Consumer Expenditures: $91.5M • Annual Retail Sales: $49.4M • Annual Leakage: $42.1M • Combined Trade Areas • Annual Consumer Expenditures: $334.4M • Annual Retail Sales: $365.3 • Annual Inflow: $30.9

  30. Market Data: Retail Opportunities • Continue to build strong automotive cluster in the PTA • $6M gap in combined trade area in clothing • Room to expand offerings in sports, hobbies, music in existing stores • Room to grow restaurant cluster, especially limited service • Largest gap exists in general merchandise offerings ($34.3 in CTA)

  31. Market Data: Retail Opportunities Peebles (Annual Report 2013) • “The company offers moderately priced, nationally recognized brand name and private label apparel, accessories, cosmetics and footwear for the entire family.” • 190 stores nationwide (up 6 from 2013) • Average store size roughly 16,000 SF in towns under 50,000 people • 31 stores in Northeastern Region, 4 in VT • Departments: • Men’s/Young Men’s; Misses Sportswear; Footwear; Children’s; Junior Sportswear; Cosmetics; Accessories; Special Sizes; Dresses; Home & Gifts; Intimates; Outerwear, Swimwear and Other

  32. Market Data: Retail Opportunities Dollar General • DG is a small neighborhood store with selected merchandise. They don’t carry every brand and size, just the most popular ones. DG focuses on life’s necessities: laundry detergent, toilet paper, soap, shampoo, socks and underwear, handheld appliances, electronics. The average DG customer completes their shopping trip in less than 10 minutes. • Nation’s largest small box discount retailer (11,000 units) • Currently 20 stores in VT • Opening 700 in 2014 nationwide • Operate in stores as small as 1700 SF but generally 7300 SF

  33. Emerging Themes • Telling the Middlebury Story: Marketing Strategy • Keeping Local Customers • Dispelling Misperceptions • Strengthening Middlebury as a Regional Retail Center • Preparing for Growth • Key gaps in retail offerings: how do you recruit • What are the “home grown” opportunities • Design as a Tool to Preserve Character • Connecting the Districts • Wayfinding enhancements • Cross-promotion

  34. Link:http://www.arnettmuldrow.com/filechute/FutureofRetail.pptxLink:http://www.arnettmuldrow.com/filechute/FutureofRetail.pptx

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