The Demands of Causal Analysis: Perplexities and Prospects

1. Martyn Hammersley The Open University The Demands of Causal Analysis: Perplexities and Prospects

2. Personal background The changing fortunes of causal analysis amongst qualitative researchers: From positions claiming to provide forms of causal analysis that are more effective than statistical method (notably, analytic induction, see Znaniecki 1934 and Lindesmith 1947) , to widespread rejection by qualitative researchers of the possibility or desirability of causal analysis.

3. Two caricatures? • In qualitative work, researchers often deny that they are engaging in causal analysis, but do so anyway; and in a fashion which assumes that identifying causes is relatively straightforward. • In dealing with quantitative data, researchers usually insist that correlation is not causation, but frequently proceed as if it were – often (in effect) using significance tests as an indicator of causal relations.

4. Issues to be addressed • Is causal analysis possible? • Empiricist misconceptions • Inference and theoretical models • Proof and evidence • The pragmatic character of explanation • The role of value-relevance frameworks

5. Arguments that causal analysis is impossible • Causation does not operate in the social world, or perhaps even elsewhere. • Causes are metaphysical entities, therefore beyond the scope of empirical inquiry. • In the social world, it is meanings or reasons, not causes, that shape action. • Human beings have agency, their behaviour is not determined. • Causal accounts are constructions: the same scene can be narrated in conflicting ways.

6. An example of dismissal ‘The conventional approach of the social scientist is to pursue a causal line of inquiry; to ask what is the cause of the shift or change which stimulates the investigation […] Foucault rejects the preoccupation with causes [because this tends] to presume that social life is subject to linear and evolutionary change. [And because] the quest for causes tends to introduce assumptions about the role of human intentions, that outcomes are the result of human desires and plans.’ (Hunt and Wickham, 1994, p6)

7. Dismissal from another direction ‘The law of causality, I believe, like much that passes muster among philosophers, is a relic of a bygone age, surviving, like the monarchy, only because it is erroneously supposed to do no harm.’ (Russell, 1913, p. 1). Later view (1948:part vi, ch v): the standard philosophical concept of causation involves the law of universal determinism – every event is both a cause and an effect – whereas scientific laws propose functional relations that are not necessarily deterministic.

8. The opposite extreme: causal analysis as unproblematic • The attribution of causes is not a difficult task: we routinely attribute causes in everyday life, much of the time quite successfully. Moreover, even the discovery of error itself tells us that we can succeed in causal attribution. • The case of historiography: historians successfully document the causes of past and current events. • So, no problem!

9. Empiricist illusions • The idea that experimental method, for example RCTs, can demonstrate causal relationships (On this, see Worrall 2002 and 2007, Cartwright 2007) • The assumption that causes can be found by calculating probabilities within a representative data set. (See Turner 1948) • The view that causation is equivalent to the reasons that people give for their actions. • The belief that causal relations can be identified via direct observation.

10. Do people know what causes their own behaviour? The answer is yes, and no. • They have access to information about some causal processes affecting them to which others will not have access. Some of this, as regards their own intentions and decisions, may be virtually immediate and error-free. • However, they do not have privileged access to information about many causal processes that shape their behaviour, including what they think and feel.

11. An example of the direct observation view ‘In field work […] general relations are often discovered in vivo; that is, the field worker literally sees them occur. This aspect of the “real life” character of field work deserves emphasis […]’. (Glaser and Strauss 1967:40)

12. Inference from signs An ancient concept (Allen 2001). A sophisticated version: Peirce’s account of the process of scientific inference: abduction (the development of explanatory models) deduction (the derivation of implications, including those that can be tested), induction (inference back from evidence to conclusions about the likely validity of the explanatory model).

13. Explanatory models The centrality of theoretical (not statistical) models of causal mechanisms or processes. These specify causal relations amongst factors, held to operate in the world. These relations may be synchronic and/or diachronic. A simple example of functional variation: predisposing and trigger factors.

14. More complex relations among the components of explanatory models • Causal configurations. • Non-linear relations between two or more variables. • Causal relations in which factors affect the character of one another (so the effect of the two combined is not additive). • Feedback mechanisms: evolutionary causation (van Parijs 1981). • Emergence of new systemic causal factors from lower level interactions (see Elder-Vass 2010).

15. Signs: the truth in empiricism • Contiguity of putative cause and effect, and the identification of mediating factors: process tracing (see Hage and Meeker 1988; Roberts 1996; George and Bennett 2005) • Regularities: discovering recurrent sequences • Counterfactual evidence and the comparative method All are relevant kinds of evidence, but none can be absolutely conclusive: judgment is required.

16. An exemplary case of process tracing In investigating the effects of streaming, and of differentiation of students by teachers in terms of academic criteria more generally, Lacey (1970) used both qualitative and quantitative data to trace processes of differentiation over a two-year period, showing how a polarisation of attitude towards school developed between students at the top and bottom of the academic rankings.

17. Strategies for finding regularities and/or making counterfactual checks • Experimental methods, including RCTs. • Correlational approaches: estimating the predictability of an outcome given the presence of some feature, or the level of a property, in individual cases, while controlling for (some) other variables • Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) (Ragin 2008; Rihoux and Ragin 2008; Cooper et al forthcoming): discovering which combinations of factors produce some type of outcome.

18. Witness accounts Can we draw evidence from witness accounts? Of course, but: • Witnesses may not have reliable knowledge • They may have reason to deceive or lie • Their explanations may not be framed in the same way as those of the social scientist.

19. The problem of cogency threshold • Not a matter of proof or demonstration. • The responsibility of researchers is to produce conclusions whose likely validity is significantly greater, on average, than those from other sources. • In this sense, the threshold of cogency that must be met is audience-relative. • But it is not a matter of whether people are convinced but whether they should be: ideal research community (Hammersley 2011a)

20. The pragmatic character of explanation When Willie Sutton was in prison, a priest who was trying to reform him asked him why he robbed banks. ‘Well’, Sutton replies, ‘that’s where the money is’. (Garfinkel 1981:21)

21. An explication The explanatory frame behind the priest’s question was: Why does Sutton rob banks [rather than earning money legitimately]? The bank robber’s answer operates within a different frame: Why does he rob banks [rather than robbing other sorts of establishment]? The importance of knowing what question is being addressed

22. A further complication: an infinite number of causes The selection of causes from an infinite number of candidates: C3 C7 C1 C4 C8 And O C9 so C2 C5 C10 on C6 C11 C12

23. How are causes to be selected? • Partly, no doubt, in terms of relative causal power, but this is not the whole story. • Some debates about what caused what are really about which causes are relevant or most significant, in the sense of who is to be blamed or what policy is required. ‘Importance’ here is not judged solely in terms of causal power.

24. An example from Gewirtz and Cribb (2006) Black boys are more likely than other categories of student to be excluded from school or to leave school with low or no formal academic qualifications. Is this a product of: • Institutional racism in schools (Gillborn)? or • The prevalence of an anti-school peer-group culture amongst these students (Sewell)?

25. Mackie (1974) on INUS conditions INUS condition = an Insufficient but Non-redundant part of a set of causes, this set being itself Unnecessary but nevertheless Sufficient for the occurrence of the effect. For example, a short circuit can be an INUS condition for a house burning down: it, plus the proximity of flammable material, taken together, are unnecessary but sufficient for this result. (Unnecessary, since other sets of factors could also have done this. Note, sufficiency is always relative to some assumed causal background.)

26. Value-relevance • If all explanation is pragmatic, how should explanations in educational research be framed: how should what is to be explained be determined, and how should causal factors be selected? • The answer, I think, is by means of value-relevance frameworks. • But these are not frameworks of value-commitments, they are frameworks adopted for working purposes.

27. An example of a frequently used value-relevance framework Explanations of social class inequalities in educational or occupational achievement typically assume that (Hammersley 2011b): • Pursuit of high level educational qualifications, or of service class jobs, constitutes a (in fact, the most) worthwhile goal in life. • Failure to achieve perfect educational equality between social classes mainly results from discrimination and/or of other barriers generated by the social system.

28. Nothing wrong with using value-relevance frameworks, so long as: • No framework is presented as if it were the only legitimate one for studying the phenomena concerned. • It is not claimed, or implied, that research can justify, on its own, the adoption of one framework rather than another. • Evaluations and/or recommendations are not presented as if they were facts, rather than value-judgments (involving factual elements).

29. Are there general theories in social science? • The distinction between explaining and theorising. • The problems facing theorising about the social world. • The idiographic approach of Max Weber (see Turner and Factor 1984; Ringer 1997, Agevall 1999). • Russell (1948) on causal lines. Types of structures or systems: but not universally operating, deterministic, or eternal.

30. Conclusion • Causal analysis is an essential task in social and educational research. • It is important to recognise that it involves identifying causal processes/mechanisms in the world, and we need to use explicit models of these processes. • So, naïve empiricism must be resisted, but it points to the means by which we can gain evidence for constructing and checking the validity of our models. • All explanations are pragmatic, and rely on value-relevance frameworks. • There is (for me) an open question about what the intended product of causal analysis in social science can/should be: explanations or theories?

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