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Agriculture Information System Building Provincial Capacity for Crop Forecasting and Estimation

Agriculture Information System Building Provincial Capacity for Crop Forecasting and Estimation. Introduction of the Project Outputs and Achievements John Latham (FAO). 29 Sep 2016. Background.

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Agriculture Information System Building Provincial Capacity for Crop Forecasting and Estimation

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  1. Agriculture Information SystemBuilding Provincial Capacity for Crop Forecasting and Estimation Introduction of the Project Outputs and Achievements John Latham (FAO) 29 Sep 2016

  2. Background • Reliable food security policy and proper agriculture land use planning depends on frequent and accurate information on crops productivity and agriculture land use statistics. • The traditional methods of crops statistics face the difficulties on timely deliverance of statistics and lack use of latest technologies like geospatial applications. • There was a need for an objective, standardized and possibly cheaper and faster technology to monitor agriculture and generate quality statistics. • In 2005, the Federal Government mandated SUPARCO to implement a satellite based crop monitoring program to ensure a prompt and temporal supply of agriculture information, with high level of accuracy. The result led to establish an international collaboration to improve CRSs capacity of integrating Remote Sensing data and advanced geospatial technologies in their crop monitoring tasks.

  3. The Project Improvement the capacity of provincial governments to collect, analyze and timely report on agricultural information Focus on • Enhancing the integral use of remotely sensed satellite data into existing data collection and analysis • Developing complementary systems to improve crop area estimates and yield forecasts, as well as crop status monitoring and assessment

  4. Specific Objectives • Improve CRSs capacity to forecast and estimate crop production through the use of remote sensing, field data, and other relevant information • Enhance CRSs capacity to produce timely market-oriented reports containing actionable information for farmers and other interested in the crop market

  5. Beneficiaries • The Crop Reporting Agency, SUPARCO and the other government departments through more cost effective, timely, and reliable methods and technologies for producing agricultural statistics • The Government of Pakistan which will be better able to attract development investment with improvements in monitoring the country’s most important asset (i.e. agriculture) • Universities • The farmers of Pakistan who will be better able to plan their investments • The people of Pakistan who will have increased food security due to better agricultural statistics

  6. Major Deliverables Main products by group of activities • Methods and tools to improve quality of agricultural statistics: Land Cover database of Punjab, Sindh and KP Crop Mask RABI and KHARIF crops of 2013-14 and 2014-15 Revised and improved Area Frame Sampling System Geospatial tools to improve Crop Reports and disseminate information • Crop Information Portal • Global Agricultural Monitoring of Pakistan (GLAM- Pakistan) • Mobile Agricultural Geo-tagging Information System (MAGIS) • Area Frame Sampling System (AFSS) Automation using smart phones • Operational Nucleus Lab at CRSs and Universities • Human and technical capacity development of Provincial CRSs & Universities • Baseline reports and consultations to create knowledge base for scaling methods, tools, and capacities to other Pakistan entities and universities Publications, brochures, flyers, website, e-bulletins

  7. Major Deliverables Main products by group of activities • Methods and tools to improve quality of agricultural statistics: Land Cover database of Punjab, Sindh and KP Crop Mask RABI and KHARIF crops of 2013-14 and 2014-15 Revised and improved Area Frame Sampling System Geospatial tools to improve Crop Reports and disseminate information • Crop Information Portal • Global Agricultural Monitoring of Pakistan (GLAM- Pakistan) • Mobile Agricultural Geo-tagging Information System (MAGIS) • Area Frame Sampling System (AFSS) Automation using smart phones • Operational Nucleus Lab at CRSs and Universities • Human and technical capacity development of Provincial CRSs & Universities • Baseline reports and consultations to create knowledge base for scaling methods, tools, and capacities to other Pakistan entities and universities Publications, brochures, flyers, website, e-bulletins

  8. Output 1.1: Improved approaches and survey methodology, peer reviewed, and validated for the generation of timely crop area estimates for major crops (provincial) Tree Closed Tree Crop Water Body Land cover database: The national land cover mapping program was initiated by SUPARCO with the development of a high resolution land cover datasets by province. The first three completed provinces are Punjab, Sindh and KP-FATA. Baluchistan and GB are in progress. FAO’s land cover approach/tools and standard classification system LCCS were used to create a harmonized and extensive representation of land cover features. Land Cover atlases of Punjab, Sindh, and KPK-FATA have been produced illustrating land cover information at district level in aggregated and cartographic form as well as tabular statistics per district.

  9. Land Cover of Punjab Province: Details at district level

  10. Output 1.1: Improved approaches and survey methodology, peer reviewed, and validated for the generation of timely crop area estimates for major crops (provincial) Crop Masks: Spatial information about crops (crop mask) can be effectively used in many cases: appropriate risk management strategies with respect to food insecurity, biodiversity and environmental sustainability, flooding impact studies, change analyses, and more. SUPARCO, under the technical supervision of FAO, has developed the methodology to create standardized and updated crop mask both for Rabi and Kharif crops using high resolution remote sensing imagery. Reports have been produced on crop masking methodology and results for the season 2013-14 (wheat and potato) and 2014-15 (rice, cotton and sugarcane)

  11. Output 1.1: Improved approaches and survey methodology, peer reviewed, and validated for the generation of timely crop area estimates for major crops (provincial) http://www.fao.org/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home?uuid=3d61e7ba-dd38-470d-a250-c3a587343207 http://www.fao.org/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home?uuid=626d6256-8f6a-4f57-a3fd-036eccb30c5f Crop Masks: Crop masks are produced annually for main RABI (wheat and potato) and KHARIF (rice, cotton and sugarcane) crops. Reports are being published on crop masking methodology and results for the season 2013-14 and 2014-15. ESRI spatial database for 2013-14 and 2014-15 have been documented and published through the FAO metadata catalogue Geonetwork. Datasets are delivered by crop type and administrative zone.

  12. Wheat crop Mask: Punjab South Zone

  13. Output 1.3: Set-up of fully functional operational units in offices of the two selected provincial Crop Reporting Service (Punjab and Sindh) whereby a small team is fully able to provide valuable agricultural crop statistics derived from the integration of ground truth data and earth observation satellite systems. Agriculture zones/ Strata/PSU Punjab South Zone broken down into PSU (red) Sampling Unit • Improved Area Frame sampling strategy and optimization through land cover data: Area frame methodology is a cornerstone of probability sampling. By optimizing the sample design, satellite based Area Frame improves reliability and timeliness of agriculture statistics with minimum resources. For the last 8 years, SUPARCO and FAO have developed and tested the methodology to estimate area under different major crops. The area frame sampling design has been reviewed in Punjab and Sindh and new polygon were introduced in Central Punjab, breaking into three zones and similarly two new zones were introduced in Sindh on the left bank of Indus. The ground truthing teams were assigned to carry out survey of these new polygons to test the validity of improvement.

  14. Output 1.3: Set-up of fully functional operational units in offices of the two selected provincial Crop Reporting Service (Punjab and Sindh) whereby a small team is fully able to provide valuable agricultural crop statistics derived from the integration of ground truth data and earth observation satellite systems. Agriculture zones/ Strata/PSU KP-FATA Land Cover • Improved Area Frame sampling strategy and optimization through land cover data: The Land Cover database has helped improve the existing Area Frame Sampling system by: • Providing baseline Agriculture and Non Agriculture Spatial information; • Refining the stratum classification by allocating the improved stratum class; • Comparative analysis.

  15. Output 2.2: Assessments showing provincial (Punjab and Sindh) crop reporting services capable to utilize remotely-sensed satellite imagery, field and other data for producing and making available to the public timely market-oriented reports on crop estimation and forecasts. Geo GLAM AFSS Crop Information Portal MAGIS • Geospatial Technologies for Agriculture Information Management, Analysis and Dissemination: The high quality agricultural statistics are important to formulate policy and planning for food security. The advancement in Earth observation, Navigation and Communication satellites along with availability of high bandwidth mobile communication make it feasible to report information, about a vast area in near real time. Implemented systems are: • Global Agricultural Monitoring (GLAM) for Pakistan • Crop Information Portal (CIP) • Mobile Agricultural Geo-Tagging Information System (MAGIS) • Area Frame Sampling System (AFSS), Automation through Mobile Technology

  16. Output 2.2: Assessments showing provincial (Punjab and Sindh) crop reporting services capable to utilize remotely-sensed satellite imagery, field and other data for producing and making available to the public timely market-oriented reports on crop estimation and forecasts. Geo GLAM The system includes • Image visualization/ downloading • Image masking • Vegetation condition monitoring • Graphical interpretation • Automated generation of NDVI/NDWI graphs • Histogram analysis http://pekko.geog.umd.edu/glam/pakistan/ • Geospatial Technologies for Agriculture Information Management, Analysis and Dissemination: • Global Agricultural Monitoring (GLAM) for Pakistan Set of tools for customized queries to compare current season conditions with previous seasons or time steps within the current season

  17. Output 2.2: Assessments showing provincial (Punjab and Sindh) crop reporting services capable to utilize remotely-sensed satellite imagery, field and other data for producing and making available to the public timely market-oriented reports on crop estimation and forecasts. Architecture The system includes • Static Web section for system's resources sharing • Modules of crop and related variables filtering and analysis • WEB mapping area for local or remote datasets display and analysis • Metadata catalogue (Geonetwork) to describe and disseminate geospatial information. Crop map of average wheat production period 2008-2012 http://cip.sgs-suparco.gov.pk • Geospatial Technologies for Agriculture Information Management, Analysis and Dissemination: • Crop Information Portal (CIP) Web based, open source platform developed to support the analysis and dissemination of Pakistan's crop data and related climatic, agronomic, hydrologic and economic variables.

  18. Output 2.2: Assessments showing provincial (Punjab and Sindh) crop reporting services capable to utilize remotely-sensed satellite imagery, field and other data for producing and making available to the public timely market-oriented reports on crop estimation and forecasts. Three operational implementations: National instance at SUPARCO Provincial instance at CRS Punjab Provincial instance at CRS Sindh http://cip.sgs-suparco.gov.pk • Geospatial Technologies for Agriculture Information Management, Analysis and Dissemination: • Crop Information Portal (CIP) Web based, open source platform developed to support the analysis and dissemination of Pakistan's crop data and related climatic, agronomic, hydrologic and economic variables.

  19. Output 1.3: Set-up of fully functional operational units in offices of the two selected provincial Crop Reporting Service (Punjab and Sindh) whereby a small team is fully able to provide valuable agricultural crop statistics derived from the integration of ground truth data and earth observation satellite systems. The University of Maryland has been piloting the use of the MAGIS/GeoODK Android application for electronic field data collection in collaboration with the Crop Reporting Services of Punjab and Sindh Provinces SUPARCO developed Android based Area Frame Sampling System (AFSS) application tool that has been made available to CRSs for real-time transmission of geo-tagged ground data along with photograph. • Improved data collection methodology and tools: The procurement and distributions of smartphones/GPSs kits and the development of ad-hoc web applications have dramatically improved quality, accuracy and timing of field survey by CRSs. Tests and trainings have been conducted for the purpose. • Mobile Agricultural Geo-Tagging Information System (MAGIS) • Area Frame Sampling System (AFSS) Automation through Mobile Technology

  20. Major Deliverables Main products by group of activities • Methods and tools to improve quality of agricultural statistics: Land Cover database of Punjab, Sindh and KP Crop Mask RABI and KHARIF crops of 2013-14 and 2014-15 Revised and improved Area Frame Sampling System Geospatial tools to improve Crop Reports and disseminate information • Crop Information Portal • Global Agricultural Monitoring of Pakistan (GLAM- Pakistan) • Mobile Agricultural Geo-tagging Information System (MAGIS) • Area Frame Sampling System (AFSS) Automation using smart phones • Operational Nucleus Lab at CRSs and Universities • Human and technical capacity development of Provincial CRSs & Universities • Baseline reports and consultations to create knowledge base for scaling methods, tools, and capacities to other Pakistan entities and universities Publications, brochures, flyers, website, e-bulletins

  21. Output 1.2: Revised field data collection methodology tested in the field in 2 provinces of Punjab and Sindh during the Rabi or Kharif season 2012-13 and 2013-2014 Secretary Agriculture Sindh handing over smart phones at inauguration of CRS Nucleus lab • Equipment for field survey, data analysis and dissemination: • All necessary automation and analysis equipment and software under the programme have been procured, installed and made operational at all the five locations: CRSs of Punjab and Sindh, UAF, SAUT and SUPARCO

  22. Output 1.2: Revised field data collection methodology tested in the field in 2 provinces of Punjab and Sindh during the Rabi or Kharif season 2012-13 and 2013-2014 MAGIS and GLAM system installed at Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam (SAUT) Nucleus Lab at CRS Sindh MAGIS and GLAM system installed at University of Agriculture, Faisalabad (UAF) Nucleus Lab at CRS Punjab • Strengthening of Nucleus Lab: • Need for strengthening labs already established at provincial CRS HQs to make them familiar with Remote Sensing • Additional equipment was supplied trainings provided for efficient running of the laboratories

  23. Output 1.2: Revised field data collection methodology tested in the field in 2 provinces of Punjab and Sindh during the Rabi or Kharif season 2012-13 and 2013-2014 Mobile Agricultural Geo-Tagging Information System (MAGIS) • Field survey automation tools: • Applications for smartphone were developed and implemented for field data collection, transmission and storage tasks. The Mobile Agricultural Geo-Tagging Information System (MAGIS) is a mobile based application which has been developed to support CRSs and their crop reporters in improving data collection efficiency. The Area Frame Sampling System (AFSS) is mobile based web app for real time collection of ground data along with ground photograph in support of automation of area frame survey in Punjab and Sindh provinces.

  24. Major Deliverables Main products by group of activities • Methods and tools to improve quality of agricultural statistics: Land Cover database of Punjab, Sindh and KP Crop Mask RABI and KHARIF crops of 2013-14 and 2014-15 Revised and improved Area Frame Sampling System Geospatial tools to improve Crop Reports and disseminate information • Crop Information Portal • Global Agricultural Monitoring of Pakistan (GLAM- Pakistan) • Mobile Agricultural Geo-tagging Information System (MAGIS) • Area Frame Sampling System (AFSS) Automation using smart phones • Operational Nucleus Lab at CRSs and Universities • Human and technical capacity development of Provincial CRSs & Universities • Baseline reports and consultations to create knowledge base for scaling methods, tools, and capacities to other Pakistan entities and universities Publications, brochures, flyers, website, e-bulletins

  25. Output 1.1: Improved approaches and survey methodology, peer reviewed, and validated for the generation of timely crop area estimates for major crops (provincial) • Training workshops in the use and integration of satellite imagery data and approaches: • Targeted Local Trainings (remote sensing, GIS, area frame, modelling, Crop Portal use, GLAM use, analysis and statistics of crop data) • Local Workshops (Agriculture Information System at Islamabad, Pakistan) • Targeted Foreign Trainings (Remote Sensing at University of Maryland-Washington DC) • Market Outlook (Commodity Balance Sheet compilation and Shock Impact Simulation Model implementation)

  26. Trainings and study tours 27 trainings / technical workshops 260 participants from CRSs, SUPARCO, Universities and more

  27. More on capacity development: tools and data Land cover mapping training at Islamabad Workshop on Crop Information Portal at Lahore GLAM training at University of Agriculture, Faisalabad Training at the University of Maryland

  28. More on capacity development: equipment Secretary Agriculture Sindh handing over smart phones for field data transmission Briefing to Secretary Agriculture Punjab on field data transmission through smart phones MAGIS and GLAM system being installed at SUPARCO Islamabad Training on RS/GIS Application at NCRG, Karachi

  29. More on capacity development: field data collection Jins-war Proforma used for Gardawari. Transmission of geo-tagged field data (jins-war data) through smart phones Training of CRS officials

  30. Output 1.4: Trainings for staff of SUPARCO, CRS, and MINFAL in statistics, remote sensing, GIS and mobile computing to improve crop acreage and yield estimation, and improve the capability of the provincial CRSs to utilize satellite imagery and other data for producing crop estimation and forecasts. Provincial Shock Impact Simulation Model • Capacity development: • The needs for training initiatives have been identified continuously, adjusting the training programme of following events according to such evolving needs. • The FAO model for outlook and exogenous shocks (SISMOD) was developed for Sindh and Punjab. • Econometric shock simulation model to forecast possible food gaps and assistance needs. • Training on provincial/district level commodity balance sheet and SISMod for market monitoring and food security analysis was provided.

  31. Major Deliverables Main products by group of activities • Methods and tools to improve quality of agricultural statistics: Land Cover database of Punjab, Sindh and KP Crop Mask RABI and KHARIF crops of 2013-14 and 2014-15 Revised and improved Area Frame Sampling System Geospatial tools to improve Crop Reports and disseminate information • Crop Information Portal • Global Agricultural Monitoring of Pakistan (GLAM- Pakistan) • Mobile Agricultural Geo-tagging Information System (MAGIS) • Area Frame Sampling System (AFSS) Automation using smart phones • Operational Nucleus Lab at CRSs and Universities • Human and technical capacity development of Provincial CRSs & Universities • Baseline reports and consultations to create knowledge base for scaling methods, tools, and capacities to other Pakistan entities and universities Crop reports, publications, brochures, flyers, website, e-bulletins

  32. Output 2.1: Development of an “after action plan” that addresses how Pakistan can move forward in provincial level crop reporting after this project has ended particular emphasis will be developed on what happens after the project’s conclusion, and explicitly built on what was covered in the project. • Crop reporting and timely information dissemination: • Timely information dissemination plays a significant role in policy formulations and management regarding food security and environmental sustainability • Crop reporting and timely information dissemination system include; • Monthly Crop Bulletin (Pak-SCMS) • Provincial CRSs bulletins • Technical reports • E-bulletins • Project website

  33. Output 2.1: Development of an “after action plan” that addresses how Pakistan can move forward in provincial level crop reporting after this project has ended particular emphasis will be developed on what happens after the project’s conclusion, and explicitly built on what was covered in the project. • ~ 30 pages (Sep 2016) • Jan 2011 – Sep 2016 • Example of content: • CROP SITUATION • (NDVI): CROP GROWTH PROFILES AT DIVISIONAL & PROVINCIAL LEVEL • VEGETATION DIFFERENCE • TEMPORAL VEGETATION CHANGES • AGRO-MET CONDITIONS • DAILY HYDROLOGICAL STATUS AT INDUS BASIN • IRRIGATION WATER SUPPLY SITUATION • FERTILIZER SITUATION • FIELD VIEW • AGRICULTURE RECOMMENDATIONS http://www.suparco.gov.pk/pages/pak-scms.asp • Crop reporting and timely information dissemination: • Monthly Crop Bulletin (Pak-SCMS)

  34. Output 2.1: Development of an “after action plan” that addresses how Pakistan can move forward in provincial level crop reporting after this project has ended particular emphasis will be developed on what happens after the project’s conclusion, and explicitly build on what was covered in the project. Normalized Difference Vegetation index Profile at Division Level • ~ 24 pages (Aug 2016) • Mar 2014 – Aug 2016 • Example of content: • Crop Situation Summary • Average Market Price • Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI Graph) Growth Profile at Division Level, Average maximum & minimum • Monthly Temperature & Rainfall • Whether summary and expected in current month • Irrigation water supply and canal water withdrawal • Tarbela and Mangla dam water inflow and outflow • Pest Scouting Report • Kharif Crop Situation 2016-17 • Sugarcane crop area estimate • Crop reporting and timely information dissemination: • Provincial CRSs monthly bulletins

  35. Output 2.1: Development of an “after action plan” that addresses how Pakistan can move forward in provincial level crop reporting after this project has ended particular emphasis will be developed on what happens after the project’s conclusion, and explicitly build on what was covered in the project. • Crop reporting and timely information dissemination: • Technical Reports • Pakistan: How SUPARCO Makes Crop Forecasts and Estimates based on integral use of RS data • Pakistan: Advanced Training on Monitoring of Crops through Satellite Technology • Punjab CRS: Base Line Survey • Sindh CRS: Base Line Survey • Reports on provincial (Sindh and Punjab) crop masks for Rabi (wheat and potato) and Kharif (sugarcane, cotton and rice) crops.

  36. Output 2.1: Development of an “after action plan” that addresses how Pakistan can move forward in provincial level crop reporting after this project has ended particular emphasis will be developed on what happens after the project’s conclusion, and explicitly build on what was covered in the project. • Aug 2013 – Jun 2016 • Email dissemination • Based on project website • Example of content: • Focus on: main article • Hot topics: 2 additional topics • What’s new of current period • Events of current and future • Seminars/Conferences • Relevant Publications • Advertised Jobs http://dwms.fao.org/~test/doc_ebull_en.asp • Crop reporting and timely information dissemination: • E-bulletins (tri-monthly)

  37. Output 2.1: Development of an “after action plan” that addresses how Pakistan can move forward in provincial level crop reporting after this project has ended particular emphasis will be developed on what happens after the project’s conclusion, and explicitly build on what was covered in the project. • Jan 2012 – Sep 2016 • Temporarily FAO hosted • Main Menu: • Project • Methodologies and Tools • Geospatial Systems • Data and Information • Bulletins and Reports • Case Studies • Capacity Development • Documents • News / Events http://dwms.fao.org/~test/ • Crop reporting and timely information dissemination: • Project website

  38. Elements of success Improved approach and survey methodology for the generation of timely crop area estimates for major crops at provincial level in Pakistan. Improved capacity of officials of provincial CRSs, Faculty members of Universities to use geospatial technology for rapid and cost effective data collection and reliable crops statistics generation. Strengthened geospatial nucleus laboratories at Punjab and Sindh CRS headquarters. Improved reporting capacity of different stakeholders of the project by taking advantage of tailor made systems such as GLAM, MAGIS, AFSS and Crop Information Portal which meet their requirements in crop monitoring, data collection and analysis, data access and information dissemination. Developed new and highly accurate, standard based, land cover baseline for the Provinces of Sindh, Punjab and KP to support the improvement of the area frame sampling and crop estimation programs. This baseline is fundamental also for future applications such as agro-ecological zoning, digital soil fertility mapping, land suitability, land use land cover planning, climate change studies and precision agriculture etc.

  39. Follow-up Actions The project has paved the way for future geospatial technology based studies such as agro-ecological zoning, digital soil fertility mapping, land suitability, land use land cover planning, climate change studies and precision agriculture etc. The spin offs of the current project and extension of technology to other fields through national and international support shall help improve the situation and address various issues impeding timely flow of quality data and its sharing with public. FAO will be able to scale the lessons learned in this project to other countries worldwide as part of FAO’s Global Strategy for Agriculture.

  40. Agriculture Information SystemBuilding Provincial Capacity for Crop Forecasting and Estimation Project activities and outputs Final Review Meeting 29 Sep 2016

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