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-- Transition to New Load Profiles -- What to Post?

-- Transition to New Load Profiles -- What to Post?. COPS December 11, 2006. Introduction. New Load Profile models anticipated to be implemented on May 15, 2007. Profile transition plan Option 3M allows for a mixture of old and new profiles to be used in settlement.

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-- Transition to New Load Profiles -- What to Post?

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  1. -- Transition to New Load Profiles --What to Post? COPS December 11, 2006

  2. Introduction • New Load Profile models anticipated to be implemented on May 15, 2007. • Profile transition plan Option 3M allows for a mixture of old and new profiles to be used in settlement. • On 12/07/06, DEWG conference call discussed numerous options for posting profiles to ERCOT.com and TML (see Appendix)

  3. Forecasted Load Profiles DEWG consensus was to: Post forecasted load profiles generated only from new models from May 15th onward. So what would be in the files posted on ERCOT.com and the TML?

  4. Backcasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles Forecasted Load Profiles A look at ERCOT.com on May 17, 2007 (New models anticipated to be implemented for May 15, 2007) Files on the TML would also be as shown. Forecasts for May 17, 18, 19, 20 from NEW models Forecasts for May 16, 17, 18, 19 from NEW models Forecasts for May 15, 16, 17, 18 from NEW models Forecasts for May 14 from OLD models, 15, 16, 17 from NEW Forecasts for May 13, 14 from OLD models, 15, 16 from NEW Forecasts for May 12, 13, 14 from OLD models, 15 from NEW 20070517.043834.FcstPrfl05172007.csv20070516.043850.FcstPrfl05162007.csv20070515.043753.FcstPrfl05152007.csv20070514.043729.FcstPrfl05142007.csv20070513.043846.FcstPrfl05132007.csv20070512.043833.FcstPrfl05122007.csv

  5. Backcasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles Backcasted Load Profiles DEWG consensus was: For trade date 05/15/07 onward, to post profiles generated from new models in ‘primary’ folder and profiles from old models in ‘auxiliary’ folder. Profiles from old models would be posted in auxiliary folder for 90 days and archived on ERCOT.com afterward. Auxiliary profiles posted here. Similar folder on TML. File names would be followed by “_aux”. So what would be in the files posted on ERCOT.com and the TML?

  6. Backcasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles 20070517.154703.BcstPrfl05162007.csv20070516.154651.BcstPrfl05152007.csv20070515.154706.BcstPrfl05142007.csv20070514.154727.BcstPrfl05132007.csv20070513.154810.BcstPrfl05122007.csv20070512.154759.BcstPrfl05112007.csv Backcasted Load Profiles A look at ERCOT.com on May 17, 2007 (New models anticipated to be implemented for May 15, 2007) Primary Files on the TML would also be as shown. Backcast for trade date 05/16/07, from NEW models Backcast for trade date 05/15/07, from NEW models Backcast for trade date 05/14/07, from OLD models Backcast for trade date 05/13/07, from OLD models Backcast for trade date 05/12/07, from OLD models Backcast for trade date 05/11/07, from OLD models

  7. Backcasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles Backcasted Load Profiles A look at ERCOT.com on May 17, 2007 (New models anticipated to be implemented for May 15, 2007) Auxiliary Files on the TML would also be as shown. (Auxiliary) 20070517.154708.BcstPrfl05162007_aux.csv20070516.154657.BcstPrfl05152007_aux.csv20070515.154713.BcstPrfl05142007_aux.csv20070514.154731.BcstPrfl05132007_aux.csv20070513.154816.BcstPrfl05122007_aux.csv20070512.154807.BcstPrfl05112007_aux.csv Backcast for trade date 05/16/07, from OLD models Backcast for trade date 05/15/07, from OLD models Backcast for trade date 05/14/07, from NEW models Backcast for trade date 05/13/07, from NEW models Backcast for trade date 05/12/07, from NEW models Backcast for trade date 05/11/07, from NEW models

  8. Questions or Comments

  9. Appendix Options Considered by DEWG

  10. -- Transition to New Load Profiles --What to Post? DEWG December 7, 2006

  11. Introduction • New Load Profile models anticipated to be implemented on May 15, 2007. • Profile transition plan Option 3M allows for a mixture of old and new profiles to be used in settlement. • How should both old and new load profiles be posted to ERCOT.com and the TML? In this presentation: “Primary” profiles refer to those generated using the old models for trade dates thru May 14th, and for profiles generated using the new models for trade dates on or after May 15th. “Auxiliary” profiles refer to converse of the “primary” profiles. A2

  12. Forecasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles 20061206.043850.FcstPrfl12062006_1.csv 20061206.043849.FcstPrfl12062006_2.csv Forecasted Load Profiles Option F1: Post old and new profiles in separate folders Profiles from old models would be posted in separate (auxiliary) folder for 60 days. Auxiliary profiles posted here. Similar folder on TML. File names would be same as primary load profiles. Option F2: Post old and new profiles w/ different file names (in same folder) Channel number Option F3: Post old and new profiles with channel numbers Profiles would be posted in a single file. Channel placement options on next slide. Option F4: Post only new profiles starting May 15th May 12th posting would contain new profiles for May 15th, and so on... A3

  13. Forecasted Load Profiles Option F3: Post old and new profiles with channel numbers Channel ‘1’ would refer to the primary profiles and channel ‘2’ would refer to the auxiliary profiles. channel number as part of Profile Type and Weather Zone combo Option F3a channel number in new field Option F3b channel number at end of row Option F3c A4

  14. 20061205.154658.BcstPrfl12042006_1.csv 20061205.154657.BcstPrfl12042006_2.csv Backcasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles Backcasted Load Profiles Option B1: Post old and new profiles in separate folders Profiles from old models would be posted in separate (auxiliary) folder for 60 days and archived on ERCOT.com afterward. Auxiliary profiles posted here. Similar folder on TML. File names would be same as primary load profiles. Option B2: Post old and new profiles w/ different file names (in same folder) Channel number Option B3: Post old and new profiles with channel numbers Channel ‘1’ would refer to the primary profiles and channel ‘2’ would refer to the auxiliary profiles. Channel placement options on next slide. A5

  15. Backcasted Load Profiles Option B3: Post old and new profiles with channel numbers Channel ‘1’ would refer to the primary profiles and channel ‘2’ would refer to the auxiliary profiles. channel number as part of Profile Type and Weather Zone combo Option B3a channel number in new field Option B3b channel number at end of row Option B3c A6

  16. Making a Choice ForecastsOption F1 Option F2 Option F3a Option F3b Option F3c Option F4 BackcastsOption B1 Option B2 Option B3a Option B3b Option B3c A7

  17. Questions or Comments A8

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