ETC/CCA Planning Meeting 11 September 2014 Climate change indicators &

1. ETC/CCA Planning Meeting 11 September 2014 Climate change indicators & 2016 climate impacts report Hans-Martin Füssel

2. → 2016 2012 ?

3. EEA (climate impact) indicators • “a measure, generally quantitative, that can be used to illustrate and communicate complex environmental phenomena simply, including trends and progress over time” • EEA indicator comprises a specification and assessment(s) • Usually quantitative data on observed changes and projections • Includes information on uncertainties (where relevant) • Severalpossiblepolicypurposes • Well-defined quality criteria • Published on the EEA website, in EEA (indicator-based) reports and in Climate-ADAPT • Support development of adaptation policies

4. Policy purposes of EEA climate indicators • Tracing global climate change(informing climate change mitigation): e.g. global mean temperature, ocean heat content • Tracing regional climate hazards (informing climate risk management): e.g. regional sea level, extreme precipitation • Assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems and society: e.g. species distribution, agricultural phenology • Assessing the effectiveness of risk management: e.g. floods and health, losses from extreme events • Policy purpose has implications among others for required spatial coverage and resolution of indicator

5. Quality criteria for EEA indicators Thematic and policy relevance: Sensitive to climate change, relevant for policy development (but note different policy purposes) and easily understandable Full geographic coverage: Ideally Europe (EEA-33 or EEA-39) or other relevant area(s) Appropriate geographical aggregation (where relevant): Countries, regional seas, etc. Long time series: Depending on the topic (for climate change at least 30 years); possibly including projections (in particular for climate change) Reliable data supply: Priority data flows or other institutional arrangement/guarantee Clear methodology: Methodology is clearly described and repeatable 5

6. Indicator selection for the 2012 CCIV report • Most indicators were „inherited“ from the 2008 EEA CCIV report • Discussion with authors (first) and Advisory Group (later) on addition and deletion of indicators • Formal assessment of all existing and proposed indicators by authors and (independently) by ETC-CCA according to established criteria • Final decision by authors and Advisory Group

7. Changes from 2008 to 2012 CCIV report

8. Publication on the EEA website http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators#c5=climate&c7=all&c0=10&b_start=0

9. Publication in Climate-ADAPT

10. 2012 EEA climate impacts report • Coordination by the European Environment Agency (EEA) • Authors and contributors (total 90): • EEA and 3 European Topic Centres (CCA, ICM, BD) • Joint Research Centre (European Commission) • World Health Organisation Europe • European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control • Guidanceby Advisory Group: European Commission, EEA scientific committee, WHO, ECMWF, IPCC, SWIPA, other organisations • External review:Advisory Group, countries, and selected experts • Data sources: International databases, European and other research projects, academic publications • Extent: 300 pages, 44 indicators, >120 maps and figures

11. Structure of 2012 climateimpacts report • 4. Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health • Agriculture (4) • Forests and forestry (2) • Fisheries and aquaculture • Human health (4) • Energy (1) • Transport • Tourism • 5. Vulnerability to climate change • River flooding, water scarcity and droughts • Integrated assessment of vulnerability • Cities and urban areas • Damage costs (1) • 6. Indicator and data needs Executive Summary Technical Summary • Introduction 2. Changes in the climate system • Key climate variables (5) • Cryosphere (6) 3. Climate impacts on environmental systems • Oceans and marine environment (5) • Coastal zones (2) • Freshwater quantity and quality (5) • Terrestrial ecosystems (5) • Soil (3) (x): Number of “indicators“

12. Example: Cryosphere indicators (past trends) 12

13. Data availability in 2012 report • Best data availability for climatic variables and ecosystems • For many other topics, the historical data series are short and the projections indicative at best • Greatest “white spots” are related toclimate impacts on socio-economic systems andhealth, bothrelatedtoattribution of pastandtrendsandtofutureprojections • Some climate-sensitive issues are not covered due to • Insufficientdataand/or regional specificity: industry and manufacturing, insurance, infrastructure, livestock production, specialistcrops, cultural heritage; • Hard-to-quantify: aesthetic impacts, personal well-being; • Speculative attribution: migration

14. CLIM indicatorupdatessince 2012 • Motivation • Including important new information (e.g. IPCC AR5) • Extension of Core Set of Indicators (by 4 CLIM indicators) • Moving from static to dynamic graphs (online) • Preparing for 2016 EEA climate impacts report • Planning • It was not fully clear at the end of 2013 which indicators would require an update (depending on IPCC AR5) • Process • Lead by EEA • Support from ETC/CCA (for some indicators) • Further support from WHO, ECDC and other experts

15. New CLIM indicators in the EEA Core Set of Indicators • CLIM013 - Sea surface temperature (published) • CLIM012 - Sea level rise (completed) • CLIM007/008/009/010 – Cryosphere: to be decided how to deal with individual vs. combined cryosphere indicators • CLIM039 – Damage from extreme weather events: status update by Wouter

16. CLIM indicatorupdates after 2012 • Climate change indicators • ETC/CCA support lead by Mikael H. • Published 14 indicator updates (1 pending) • Merged 2 indicators (sea-level rise and storm surges) • Incorporated important new information (e.g. from IPCC AR5, CMIP5, EURO-CORDEX) • EEA highlight published a few weeks ago • Climate change impacts indicators • ETC/CCA support lead by Andreas M. • Published 5 indicators (ecosystems, agriculture, health) • 2indicators are still under review (by WHO and ECDC) • At least 3 further indicator updates are planned (lead by other EEA colleagues)

17. Selected changesto CLIM indicators(since 2012)

18. Published and expected information on European CCIVA from other organisations • February 2013: Background Report to the Impact Assessment of the EU Adaptation Strategy (lead by Environment Agency Austria). • October 2013: NMI/EASAC Report “Extreme Weather Events in Europe: preparing for climate change adaptation” • March 2014: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, in particular the chapter on Europe in the contribution of Working Group II • April 2014: JRC Report “Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II project” • 2016/17: Possibly new Impact Assessment (in connection with the planned 2017 revision of the EU Adaptation Strategy) • From 2016 on?: Possibly regular reports by the Copernicus Climate Change Service Delegated Entity (ECMWF) • Other research projects: PESETA III, CLIPC, …

19. 2016 EEA CCIV report • Key open questions - content • Length (i.e. inclusion of full indicator assessments?) • Consideration of “non-indicator-based” information (e.g. from key projects funded by RTD / CLIMA / JRC) • Coordination with 2017 revision of EU Adaptation Strategy (including background report to the Impact Assessment) • Key open questions - process • Degree of involvement of JRC • Resources available for “new” indicators (e.g. SEBI010) • Changes in process for figure and indicator production • How to ensure commitment by key EEA and ETC authors • Improved planning to avoid stress in the final phase

20. Survey on 2016 EEA CCIV report • Goal and topics • Receive “informal” feedback from target users and experts • Use and usefulness of the 2012 report • Potential changes in the 2016 report • Recipients (ca. 200) • Commission experts (various DGs) • NRC-CCIVA & NFPs • “Country contacts” in ministries • International organisations (WHO, UNISDR, OECD, etc.) • Other European networks (ENCA IG on Adaptation, Climate Change in Health, JPI Climate MB, former CIRCLE2 MB, …) • Timing • Published on Eionet Forum (NRC-CCIV site, public part) • 3 – 24 September

21. Production of 2016 EEA CCIV report • Overall process similar as for the 2012 report • Some changes foreseen in the Advisory Committee (e.g. inclusion of some “advanced” countries) • Work plan to be finalized late-2014;sincere work starts early 2015 • Content work stretched across time (in order to prevent peak loads and bottlenecks) • Relevant for ETC-CCA: • Clear agreements on responsibility, deliveryand timing • Strengthened role of ETC task manager: coordination of contributors, mandatory QA/QC • Who will be ETC-CCA task manager?

22. Prioritycontentimprovement • Improved presentation of information related to droughts and floods • Possibly small expert workshop in early 2015 • Includeinformationon Antarcticicesheets • Additional information on terrestrialecosystems(e.g. migratorybirds, invasive species) • Additional information on marine ecosystems(oceanoxygencontent, deadzones, algalblooms) • Harmonizeinformation on damages due to extreme weatherevents • Considerfurtherfeedbackfromusersurvey

23. Thankyou

24. Contributionby JRC to 2012 EEA CCIV report

25. Survey on the 2016 EEA CCIV Report • Have you made use of the recent EEA reports to help define the scope and content of national impact, vulnerability and risk assessments? • Are you developing and implementing indicators in your country that are based on or similar to the indicators in the EEA reports? • How should EEA balance its effort on a printed report versus efforts to maintain and update indicators on the EEA website? • Which parts of the 2012 EEA Report did you find particularly useful? • Which changes do you propose in the development process and the content of the planned 2016 EEA Report, compared to the 2012 report? • Are you interested in taking an active role in the development of the 2016 EEA Report by becoming a member of the foreseen Advisory Board? • How can EEA best identify and involve experts within your country that can review the report (beyond the NRC CC IVA)? • Sent to ca. 200 recipients : Commission experts, NRC-CCIVA, NFPs, “country contacts” in ministries, international organisations(WHO, UNISDR, OECD, etc.), ENCA IG on Adaptation, JPI Climate MB, former CIRCLE2 MB, …

26. Requests to CCCS • Contribute to the EEA climate change impact indicators and (if feasible) 2016 indicator-based assessment report • Explore potential impactindicatorsforsectors/topicsthatareunderrepresentedin thecurrent EEA indicatorset • Considerqualitycriteriaand different policypurposesof EEA indicators • Help define best linkages between the CCCSand Climate-ADAPT (involving also DG CLIMA) • Consider EU “policy sectors” in sectoral delineation