Roger S. Pulwarty NOAA Boulder CO 80305 CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS,GCDAMP

1. The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA): Designing effective assessments for decision support Roger S. Pulwarty NOAA Boulder CO 80305 CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS,GCDAMP

2. What/where are the critical issues and who is/are defining them? • What are the processes? • What are the applications? • What are the outcomes?

3. Planning for climate risks? There is strong evidence that existing climate risks are not being adequately incorporated into decision-making, even with regard to weather extremes (Source: MunichRe, Topics Geo Annual Review, Natural Catastrophes, 2005)

4. Conclusions, so far • Degradation is often a long-term process with cumulative phases of acceleration and deceleration • Rates of changes are important • Processes involve multiple timescales (conjunction of several factors at unique points) • Degradation must be placed within wider social and environmental dynamics (other phases of landscape transformation) eg size of settlements and adequacy of social mechanisms to deal with changing circumstances

5. Three reasons for assessing climate change in the context of adaptation to extremes and variability: • A strictly long-term focus can overshadow the role of surprise in shaping responses (2) Adaptations in many cases are driven by crises, learning and redesign (3) Opportunities exist to learn from organizations that cope with change and focus on responses and social networking such as disaster relief and research ……..BUT—long-term scenarios can also bring focus on changes in extremes… (Orlove, 2004: Pulwarty, Broad, Finan, 2003)

6. The Asipu A group of priests in the Tigris-Euphrates valley 2500-3000 BC • Hazard identification • Data collection and analysis • Generation of alternatives • Report creation

7. Integrated assessment Forecast generation Projections Dissemination Utilization

8. Problem-solving approaches conditioned by system uncertainty and decision stakes (Adapted with permission from Functowicz and Ravetz, 1990) >2 nd Order Contexts (Integrated Assessments Decision-support) Decision Stakes: Consultancy (Specific applications &output) Can/should probabilities be specified for this area? Applied Sciences (Impacts) Problem solving approach System Uncertainty Physical systems:and linkages Economics &Human Dimensions

9. Capabilities and vulnerabilities matrix

10. Drought

11. Mantua 2005

12. Focusing event(s) and cumulative Impacts Response Preparedness Mitigation Recovery Prevention Development

14. Multiple competing valuesMultiple, competing objectives Hydropower Ecosystems health Recreation Consumptiveuse Flood control Agriculture

15. Benefits of controlling seasonality/hydrology • Conveyance of flood waters • Storage for irrigation (and power) • Predictable navigation opportunity • Enhanced recreational uses Adaptation requirements • Sufficient water resources for experimentation • Resilience identified/understood in key ecosystem components • Flexibility among stakeholders • Room for political negotiations

16. Where do science and policy speak to each other?and, what do they talk about?

17. Interacting with other Disciplines

18. Interacting with other institutions Environment Industry State Communities International Pressures

19. Interacting........ Are we exceeding design specs on this stand? No, you’re biased You’re biased Everyone is biased except me Oh, you’re biased

20. Lessons from the disaster research community Technical range of choice • (state of knowledge, technology, resources at a given point in time) Practical range of choice • (culture, community, practice, communication) No choice • (power, access/procedure, capacity)

21. Where do science, policy and practice, speak to each other?and, what do they talk about?Climate variability and change:

22. Q 3. Find x x 3 cm 4 cm

23. Q 3. Find x Here it is ! x 3 cm 4 cm

24. Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments:Objectives and Approaches Characterize the state of knowledge of climate variations and changes, and their social, economic, and ecological interaction, impacts and projections at appropriate scales of interest within a region • Identify knowledge gaps in selected critical climate-environment-society problems in a region and carry out research to bridge these gaps as needed Assess regional and local resources, capacity , and decision-support dialogs needed in responding to environmental variability and change • Carry out research focused on realizing the benefits of integrated knowledge and forecasts in different contexts and provide an informed basis for place-based decision support and services

25. Approach to Integrated Research • First vertical assessment, then horizontal • 1. Understand the physical system, including predictability and uncertainty • Understand the managed system, i.e. the nature and consequences of human choices and activities • Understand the institutional context of these systems, e.g. processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars, and customs under which human choices are made • Work with regional stakeholders at all stages.

26. Assessment ….viewed from Information chain Information and Decision Support Systems Knowledge-based Products Observations and Monitoring Climate Simulations Interdisciplinary Research Observations and Monitoring Interdisciplinary Research The Decision The Decision • Framing the question • Synthesis tools • Data assimilation & visualization • Complexity models • Scenario development and testing • Understanding methodologies • Place-based • Network design • Platforms • Appropriate mix of observations • Quality assurance and control • Types of models • Scale • Temporal • Spatial • Performancemetrics • Climate simulations & scenarios • Social trends • Demographics • Energy use • Land use • Institutions • Policies • Laws • Values • Politics • Dialog, not two monologues • Place-based and sector-based • User oriented • Scenarios and probabilistic outcomes • Synthesis • Distributed dissemination • New technologies • Interactive • User friendly • Flexible Information and Decision Support Systems The Decision Knowledge-based Products Climate Simulations Knowledge-based Products Observations and Monitoring Climate Simulations Interdisciplinary Research Interdisciplinary Research Improved Decision Process Observations and Monitoring The Decision The Decision Interdisciplinary Research The Decision Climate Simulations Observations and Monitoring Interdisciplinary Research The Decision

27. Usual stakeholder interaction • Concentrates on the incorporation of new knowledge or experience into existing models, decision processes and practices Needed • The most important learning involves values, norms, goals, and the basic “framing” of issues in terms of the drivers and importance • Innovative partnerships incl.research

28. Elements of adaptive management: Learning by doing • Recognition of scientific and management complexity and uncertainty /with practitioners • Directive and/or need for action • Implement management actions to address resource problems as experiments • Monitor and evaluate effects of action/experiments (what works, what does not) • Develop integrated models for watershed interactions, legal and cultural requirements etc. • Develop experiments in a participatory process involving a key parties (transactions costs)

31. NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers International Research Institute RISA – Pacific Northwest High Plains RCC University of Nebraska Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey RISA – Western Water RISA – NewHampshire Northeast RCC Cornell University Western RCC Desert Research Institute Climate Prediction Center, Climate Services Division Climate Diagnostic Center National Climatic Data Center RISA – California National Center Regional Center Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural Resources Pacific ENSO Applications Center States Participating In Two Regions Southern RCC Louisiana State University RISA’s RISA – Florida NWS RHQ RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS

32. Seattle PUD WDOE/Water Supp. Portland Water Bur. NPPC BPA Seattle City Light Tacoma P&L NOAA River FC US Army Corps Seattle City Council PNNL OSU/USFS US Forest Service National Park Service WDNR U of I Water Markets/ Energy Hydrology/ Water Resources Forests/ Forest hydrology ID Governor’s Office State Legislature USDOI - Western Regional Office Climate Dynamics WSU Agriculture Human Health Aquatic Ecosystems BLM NRCS Farmers Irrigation districts WA Department of Health Coastal Activities WDOE Shorelands Prog. WDFW NMFS NPFMC PFMC NWIFC CRITFC IPHC OSU Battelle - Seattle OR Dept. of Lands & Development, Coastal Management Prog.

33. Integrated Decision Support Modeling Tool • Stresses: • Climate Variability and • Change (e.g., drought) • Regional growth • Increased population • Changes in land use Responses: New storage Conjunctive Use Increased Reuse Agricultural Efficiency Conservation • Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands? • Municipal and Industrial • Agriculture • Environment Goal: Improve regional capabilities to adapt to climate-related impacts.

34. 45 Million 64 Million Projected Population Growth NV AZ UT NM CO CA USA

35. Issue: So Many Stakeholders! Continental Scale: Focus of modelers Different Scales (time & space) Different Issues Different Stakeholders Watershed/Local Scale: Where impacts happen Where stakeholders exist

36. http://hydis6.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/ • Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts • Six elements in our webtool: • Exploring Forecast Progression • Forecast Interpretation - Tutorials • Forecast Performance • Historical Context • Use in Decision Making • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research

37. 2003 2002 2004 Historical Context for Forecasts/projections Requested by Fire managers… Applicable to any climate variable La Nina Recent History | Possible Futures Neutral Non-ENSO sequences

39. 45 Million 64 Million 2025 2000 Population

40. Wildfire Threat forecast • The end product is a monthly, county-by-county forecast of the KBDI. • Graphic shows the probability of at least 7 days in the month being above or below critical thresholds. • Thresholds were determined with input from forestry and wildfire experts. • Forecast was based on the Neutral ENSO phase.

41. How Good are Available Forecasts Projections? • Natural • science • Social science • Stakeholder interaction

42. CDC-CIRES Western Water Assessment Mission: To improve water-related decision-making and management in the Interior West by increasing the scope, quality, availability and relevance of climate products and knowledge

43. Colorado River Flow Departures from Average WET DRY Compact GCD Salton Sea Climatic InfluencesENSOPDO/VSouthwest MonsoonLand Surface Feedbacks Extreme Events

44. Colorado River at Lees Ferry reconstructed flow 1530-1990s

45. Timescales Indeterminate Long-term Decade Annual Seasonal Daily-monthly Hourly Flows necessary to protect endangered species Inter-basin allocations and those allocations among states Upper Basin delivery obligations Lake Powell-Lake Mead equalization storage Peak heating and cooling months Flood control operations, Kanab amber snail impacts Western Area Power Administration’s power generation decisions Household-municipal- county Tribal/State Regional National Global

46. Planning Planning Planning Planning Planning Hydropower Decision Calendars Municipal & Industrial Decision Calendars Aquatic Ecosystems Decision Calendars data data data data data Outdoor Recreation Decision Calendars decisions decisions decisions decisions decisions Agriculture Production Decision Calendars tion planning tion planning tion planning tion planning tion planning gmentation gmentation gmentation gmentation gmentation releases releases releases releases releases Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Water Resources: Decision calendars

47. Reservoir Management Decision Calendar Water Year Planning Next Water Year Planning Provide for late Summer/early Fall irrigation while maintaining target flows Next water year runoff unknown, reserve water until February snowpack observations Winter season precipitation forecast for Fall release decisions Winter releases based on January/February snowpack observations Winter/Spring forecast for Winter release decisions Peak Flow Augmentation - fill curve Legend: Summer season forecast for Peak Augmentation planning Planning Process Week 2 forecasts for Peak Augmentation Operational issues Peak Flow Augmentation releases Potential use of forecasts Plan releases for Summer irrigation & hydropower Week 2 forecasts for Summer irrigation & hydropower release decisions Provide for Summer irrigation & hydropower needs while maintaining target flows

48. Regional Water Issues Activities

49. Regional Water Issues Activities

50. Key partnerships