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Surviving the collapse: Assessing the Impacts of Austerity

Surviving the collapse: Assessing the Impacts of Austerity. Trends and Impacts on the Most Deprived Estates: What Orientations for Public Policy . Many positives from past experience… conditions, timing, policies, people … Mixed economic base – city, suburbs, region

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Surviving the collapse: Assessing the Impacts of Austerity

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  1. Surviving the collapse: Assessing the Impacts of Austerity Trends and Impacts on the Most Deprived Estates: What Orientations for Public Policy ISKS Conversation Series

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  6. Many positives from past experience… conditions, timing, policies, people … Mixed economic base – city, suburbs, region Successful in attracting industries … Opportunities for labour market integration at different levels Profile of Limerick v. Mid-West Region and State averages Current situation of major job losses.. Global restructuring .... Very difficult conditions … Jobs in services (1990’s) and knowledge economy? Status, inefficiencies, costs … Where are the new sources of jobs in 2011 and what matters? Economic structure & restructuring ISKS Conversation Series

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  9. Population Trends • Population loss city v. county • Population loss in local authority estates: • Unintended consequences of policy (Surrender Grant) • People “voted with their feet” • How did they fare when they left? • Residualisation … local authority estates • Even more population dispersal since 2006 ... ISKS Conversation Series

  10. Social trends and impact • Social trends and social policy .... • Education ….. % with higher and low qualification • Health …. …. Life expectancy; mental health; child health; health in old age • Social gradients & gaps …. ISKS Conversation Series

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  17. Social Change / Social Policy Impacts • Changing opportunity structure and other ‘advances’.... • Benefits to the population in general • Gap ... highest v. lowest social classes • Dependency & poverty traps ... Lone parents • Generations lost? • ‘Cultural’ / attitudinal differences • Social segregation • Expectations and socially-restricted networks • Strong pattern of spatial inequality in the city • Neighbourhood effects ... Additional disadvantages for poor people living in ‘poor places’ ISKS Conversation Series

  18. Outcomes, services and costs? • Outcomes for poor households, poor on most deprived estates in Limerick City • Local service provision • Ineffective? • The way we do things? • Costs of services….? • Difficulty of estimating the financial inputs .. • Impossible to estimate the outcomes… • Seven Estates Study (published in 2011, using 2006 data) • €968.8m p/a public expenditure on local area-based schemes, of which: • €280m tax expenditure commercial development • €688m schemes to benefit poor households • €295m strict procedures for spatial targeting; • Moyross €4.041m (1,014 h/h); €3,985 per h/h • 22 different community-based schemes; 15 sources of funds ISKS Conversation Series

  19. Definition of the problem & potential solutions • Material deprivation (income) • Structural problems … long-term, need interventions • Attitudes … culture of poverty, underclass, low trust • Social inequality (spatial segregation) .. • Impact … social class • Society • Who’s to blame? • More income? • Economic activity / growth? • New sources of jobs • Variations by skills level • Status of jobs • More public funds for social interventions? • Better structure (preventive) • Better coordination • Better management • Better understanding … and communication of the problems ISKS Conversation Series

  20. “Wicked” problems (Rittel & Webber, 1973) & systems approach • Many inter-dependencies • Multi-causal • Addressing them unforeseen consequences • Often unstable; • No clear solutions • Socially complex • Beyond the capacity of one organisation to respond to them • Involve changing behaviour • Often result of chronic policy failure • What do you do? • Understanding of needs • Strategy & desired outcomes • Rewards & sanctions (conditionality) • Empowerment & responsibility • Systems’ approach • Work across issues ... • Expertise & skills set needed • Changing attitudes towards people affected ISKS Conversation Series

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