What do we know?

1. Population dynamics in Middle Age Italy before the Black Death of 1348. New insights from archaeological findingsIrene Barbiera – Gianpiero Dalla ZuannaUniversity of Padua

2. What do we know? • POPULATION STOCK • After the sudden diminution of the population caused by the great Plague of Justinian in 542 (and the reoccurrences until 750), the number of inhabitants in Italy remained fairly constant for several hundred years. The population did not begin to increase until the 10th century, reaching a peak around 1300. During the decades that followed, population growth slowed up until the plague of 1348, which wiped out a third of the population. • Such estimates, calculated for an extremely long period of time, should be accepted only with great caution. In light, however, of the vast amount of documentation that has been gathered on settlements in Italy during the Early and High Middle Ages, in our opinion these macro-trends between the 6th and the 14th century may be used as a starting point for demographic analyses.

3. Italian population stock and grow Lo Cascio E., Malanima P., 2005, Cycles and stability. Italian population before the demographic transition (225 B.C. - A.D. 1900), «Rivista di Storia Economica», 21, 3, pp. 5-40.

4. What do we know? 2. EPIDEMICS • Absence of great plague epidemics in Italy during the long interval from 750 to 1348. It is possible, however, that other deadly forms of epidemics existed during these 500 years; information on the epidemiological reality of medieval times (especially that of the Early Middle Ages) remains quite limited, such that nothing should be ruled out a priori. • Nevertheless, the intermittent increases in mortality during these centuries should not be comparable to the plague epidemics which, in close cycles, struck Italy from the 14th to the 17th century

5. What do we know? 3. MIGRATION • Immigration into Italy played only a marginal role in defining the structure of the population. Historians concur that none of the “barbaric invasions” in Italy significantly affected the demographics of the population already established. The Lombards, the largest foreign population, counted no more than 150-200 thousand inhabitants, or 2-2.5% of the total Latin population resident in Italy. According to Wickham (1983), even in the areas most densely populated by the Lombards, the latter made up no more than 5-8% of the total population. These estimates are quite similar to those proposed by Rouche (1997) on the ratio between Germanic and Latin populations, described in a review of the French case.

6. The stereotype of a ‘decline-revival’ • The resplendent classical times – when Italy (civil, organized, wealthy, densely populated, with a solid urban lattice) dominated the Mediterranean and Western Europe – would have been followed by a decline into the dark ages, where the population would have significantly decreased due to high mortality, barely compensated for by high fertility. • This period would have then been followed by centuries of revival into Late Medieval times, characterized by agrarian expansion, burgeoning city life, increased commerce and – almost automatically – population, thanks to longer life expectancy. In addition, according to this perspective, the process of ruralization, the advancement of forests and marshlands in the place of cultivated fields, and the revanche of rural areas (even within ancient city walls) during the Early Middle Ages would have been explained by a progressive return to “untamed” human behavior.

7. What do we know? 5. NUTRITION • Montanari (1979, 1988 and 1994) shows that during the dark ages, the peasants of Northern Italy ate more and better compared not only to the Roman era, but also compared to following centuries. Peasants enjoyed a rich and diverse diet of vegetables, meats, and fish; not dulled – as during the previous centuries – by the monotony of grains. • A number of factors contributed to this situation: the sparse number of inhabitants the weakening of commerce the consolidation of an economy based on auto-consumption the avoidance of intensively farming soil dedicated to grains the conservation of large spreads of woodlands the cultivation of noteworthy garden plots for family consumption the breeding of wild animals the diffusion of relatively favorable agrarian contracts for farmers • The increase in population during the High Middle-Ages would thus not have coincided with an improvement in life conditions. Rather, the necessity of satisfying the needs of cities and the related demand for agricultural goods meant that landowners increased the pressure placed on farmers, following a Malthusian model

8. The stereotype of a ‘golden age’ • Giovannini (2001, 2002) furthers Montanari’s explanation, suggesting the existence of a low pressure demographic regime during the Early Middles Ages, characterized by contained infant mortality and fertility: the result of a nutritious diet, prolonged breastfeeding, and a relatively late age at first marriage for women. • The argument set forth by Giovannini is appealing in that it defines a sort of self-regulating homeostatic sequence. • However, the acceptance of the pattern proposed by Giovannini runs the risk of substituting a paradigm of the dark ages with that of Early Medieval times as a golden age for the Italian population.

9. Our aim • We want to put aside stereotypical descriptions of the past, and analyze new information based on archaeological findings pertaining to Italian population dynamics between Late Antiquity and the Middle-Ages. • We thus systematically examine data ranging over an extended period of time (from 1st century B.C. to 13th century A.D.) from necropolises discovered in Italian regions. • More specifically, we present new results with regard mainly to mortality and nutrition. As anthropological data has never before been employed so extensively in order to study such matters in Italy, the primary aim of this paper is to evaluate the potential of this source for understanding the period under observation.

10. MORTALITY

11. MORTALITY Method

12. Is it possible to estimate mortality regime using data on skeltons? • Problems: • age at death can be difficult to correctly determine • migratory movements can distort the results • discovered skeletons may not be representative • The greatest problem lies, however, in the frequent and systematic underestimation of the deaths of children, which in ancient demographic regimes, made up a large portion of total mortality (30-50% under 5 years of age). [1]Bocquet-Appel, Naji 2006.

13. Is it possible to estimate mortality regime using data on skeltons? • We utilize only the data concerning the death of youth and adults. As previously proposed by Bocquet-Appel e Naji (2006) and other authors we use the index d=D5-19/D5+ where D5-19 is the number of burials of youth (age 5-19), and D5+ is the number of youth and adults (age 5+)..

14. d and mortality • Stationary close population Statistical association between the ratio d=D5-19/D5+ and life expectancy e0 in Coale and Demeny’s (South Family) life tables, with stationary population

15. d and mortality (2) Population affected by recursive hard epidemics • A severe epidemics was often followed by a significant increase in marriages, immediately followed by a rise in the number of births, and a consequent “swelling” of the younger age classes (as well as the number of deaths aged 5-19). • Yet crises in mortality can modifying the age structure, increasing the value of d. • In this case, a high value of d does not show a “normal” high mortality but – rather – a “mortality crisis” regime

16. d and population growth Standard Coale & Demeny life table, Sud model, level 3, e0=25 Proportion of deaths by age D=22 D=13 D=16 D=11 D=20 Growth rate x 100 But also during the dynamic medieval growth, (100 x r) <0.2

17. Consequently… If the population growth rate is relatively low (as in Italy during 0-1350) the higher isd=D5-19/D5+ … the higher should be mortality

18. Data • From the 154 archaeological sites cited in the bibliography, we ultimately chose 35 cemeteries located in Italy (mostly in the regions of the Center-North) and in Iskra (Slovenia) which date between I B.C. and XIII A.D. We excluded cemeteries with • less than 40 skeletons (106 cemeteries) • more than 20% of skeletons whose age could not be determined (14 c.) • the ratio d was either less than 10% or higher than 30% (5 c.) Data from the 35 necropolises were combined, differentiating between the • Classical Period and Late Antiquity (11 necropolises: I B.C.-V A.D.), • Early Middle Ages (14 necropolises: VI-IX century), • High Middle Ages (10 Necropolises: X-XIII century).

20. Results

21. d=D5-19/D5+ during 0-1300 A.D. in 35 Italian necropolises Early Middle Age High Middle Age Antiquity

22. Deaths by age and d ratio in 35 Italian necropolises (a) d is calculated pooling data of all the necropolises (b) d of the median necropolis (c) Stationary population, C&D South model-life-table (extrapolation for Early Middle Age)

23. NUTRITION: CRIBRA One clues of nutritional status concerns the existence of cribra, present in the form of furrows and small lesions visible on the skull, particularly on the roof of the eye socket (cribra orbitalia) and in the occipital area (cribra cranii). The latter, more reliable in terms of revealing information relative to health status, is an expression of porotic hyperostosis associated with iron deficiency; in other words, anemia caused by nutritional stress.

24. Percentage of individuals affected by cribra in a number of necropolises

25. NUTRITION: average statures

26. How can we combine: • good nutrition and high mortality during the Early Middle Ages … • … less satisfactory nutrition and lower mortality during the Roman period and during the High Middle Age? • “Epidemiological” hypothesis seems to be more convincing

27. No connection

28. Some directions for further research • Plague? Paul the Deacon: 565 Liguria; 590 Rome; 593 Ravenna, Grado and Istria; 680 Rome and Pavia. According to Stathakopoulos, during the 210 years 541-750, there were about 18 outbreaks of the plagues, i.e. one outbreak every 11.6 year) • Malaria? • More detailed analysis by age • DNA analysis (sex of young skeletons, migrations, causes of death) • More general demographic balance (nuptiality, breastfeading) • Comparison with other countries • Interpreting the strange sex-ratio of adult skeletons But mainly… ADD NEW DATA!!!

29. Sex ratio M/F in a sample of Italian cemeteries during A.D. 0-1600 Skeletons aged 15 years or more

30. Estimated Sex ratio M/F by age groups in a sample of medieval Italian cemeteries