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Modeling Issues of the Delta Introduction

Modeling Support Branch Bay Delta Office. Modeling Issues of the Delta Introduction. Jamie Anderson Ph.D., P.E. CWEMF Workshop February 6, 2007. Core Questions. What are the intended applications of Delta models in the next 10 years?

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Modeling Issues of the Delta Introduction

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  1. Modeling Support Branch Bay Delta Office Modeling Issues of the DeltaIntroduction Jamie Anderson Ph.D., P.E. CWEMF Workshop February 6, 2007

  2. Core Questions • What are the intended applications of Delta models in the next 10 years? • What is the current performance of Delta models in historical simulations and in foreseeable applications? • What are areas for improvement for Delta models?

  3. Applications of Delta Models • Application types • Historical • Forecasting (real-time and longer term) • Planning • Simulation types • Hydrodynamics (flow and water levels) • Conservative constituents (salinity) • Non-conservative constituents (DO, TOC, etc) • Particle tracking • Temperature • Sediment transport

  4. Future Applications of Delta Models • Real-time applications • Operations • Emergency Response • Planning applications • Sea level rise • Island flooding • Frank’s Tract / 3-Mile Slough • Shallow water habitat restoration • Storage and conveyance alternatives • South Delta and other barriers/gates • Changes in operations

  5. Empirical ANN 1-D 2-D 3-D Cost Complexity Data Requirements Communication of Results Technical Managers Public Complexity Types of Models

  6. Model Performance • DSM2 evaluation and possible recalibration • Dec 14, 2006 CWEMF Workshop • CALFED project • Issues Affecting the Predictive Ability of One-Dimensional Delta Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Models Areas for Improvement

  7. Uncertainties in Model input • Geometry – Datum, Data, Changes • Delta agricultural use – net use, salt load • Banks pumping • Duck clubs • Field data • Salinity parameters Upstream model boundary • Model formulations and assumptions • Model boundary • Friction coefficient • Mixing (dispersion) coefficient • Open water areas • DCC gates • Wind Flow into Delta Cross Channel Salinity parameters Delta agriculture Salinity transport through Franks Tract Stratification and seawater intrusion • Measures of model performance • Prior comparisons • Metrics, weighting schemes • Presentation of results Hourly variation in pumping at Banks

  8. Focuses in Workshop: • Review where we are • Identify challenges and potential improvements in future applications • Discuss future directions and identify areas of consensus

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