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STEPS Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects

Buck Consultants Int., the Netherlands AUEB, Greece ITS, United Kingdom JRC IPTS, Spain / EU KUL - SADL, Belgium LT, Finland SenterNovem, the Netherlands S&W, Germany Stratec, Belgium TIS.PT, Portugal TRL, United Kingdom TRT, Italy TTR, United Kingdom UPM, Spain. STEPS

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STEPS Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects

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  1. Buck Consultants Int., the Netherlands AUEB, Greece ITS, United Kingdom JRC IPTS, Spain / EU KUL - SADL, Belgium LT, Finland SenterNovem, the Netherlands S&W, Germany Stratec, Belgium TIS.PT, Portugal TRL, United Kingdom TRT, Italy TTR, United Kingdom UPM, Spain STEPS Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10 Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research Sound Board Forum meeting Utrecht, February 17th 2005

  2. Draft Programme 10.30-10.45 Opening and welcome Mr. Sander Kooijman, Buck Consultants International 10.45-11.30 Introduction of the STEPs project Mr. Sander Kooijman, Buck Consultants International 11.30-13.00 Introduction on scenarios Mr. Albert Jansen, SenterNovem 13.00-14.15 Lunch 14.15-16.30 Discussion Led by Mr. Albert Jansen, SenterNovem 16.30 Evaluation and Closing Mr. Alan Lewis

  3. Scenarios for the Transport system and Energy supply and their Potential effectS First results of WP3 Utrecht February 17th 2005 SenterNovem Albert Jansen + Gé Huismans

  4. Aim of the Meeting • Discuss first results WP3 with SBF

  5. Proceedings • Scenario building • Dimensions • Description • Exogenous variables • Clustering  dimensions • Dependent variables

  6. Proceedings • Dependent variables • description of the systems (essay): • transport system • energy supply system • input for the calculation models (‘hard’ figures)

  7. Exogenous variables 1 Globalisation 2. European integration 3. Economic growth, growth in affluence (GDP) 4. Demographics, including population decline 5. Technological progress 6. Availabilty of Energy Resources 7. Spatial development 8. Transport costs Policies 9. “Liberation” of the energy market 10. Environmental policy 11. Spatial planning 12. Technological and innovation policy 13. Transport policy 14. Fiscal Policy 15. Energy Policy From variables to dimensions

  8. Exogenous variables Availabilty of Energy Resources: - (A) Business as usual (commonly accepted forecasts) - (B) Worst case scenario (scarcity of fossil fuels) Policies (1) Regulation of demand: - taxation - regulation (2) Technological shift: - investment From variables to dimensions - clustering to a matrix

  9. Scenarios

  10. Description of the models • Input for calculation models WP4 • vehicle technology • infrastructure • planning • pricing

  11. Description of scenariossystems and input for calculation models

  12. Conceptual model

  13. Description of scenarioscontext and assumptions same for all calculation models

  14. . Discussion

  15. Thank you for your attention! STEPS consortium

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