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SWFDDP – South Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities

PETER KREFT, CHIEF FORECASTER. SWFDDP – South Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities. Some SWFDDP Goals*. * SWFDDP Regional Subproject RA V, Progress Report 7, April 2013. However …. Most NMHSs do not have a formal warning system in place

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SWFDDP – South Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities

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  1. PETER KREFT, CHIEF FORECASTER SWFDDP – South Pacific:Challenges and Opportunities

  2. Some SWFDDP Goals* * SWFDDP Regional Subproject RA V, Progress Report 7, April 2013

  3. However … • Most NMHSs do not have a formal warning system in place • No objective verification of warnings has been provided to the Lead RSMC (perhaps unsurprising, given the above)* • Very few case studies have been provided to the Lead RSMC • Some NMHSs report no interaction with their corresponding DMCPA • * 1 November 2012 to 28 February 2013: • 1200 South Pacific Guidance charts were produced by RSMC Wellington • 87% of these charts contained one or more of heavy rain / strong wind / large waves

  4. Next steps • Implement in-country warning system • Simplified approach to advising communities about heavy rain, through using alert and warning banners in forecasts and warnings, to be presented at the August RSMT meeting • Implement in-country verification system • Simple verification method was demonstrated during 2012 in-country training but has not been used yet; to be discussed at August RSMT meeting

  5. Resourcing: RSMC Wellington • Operational time: • Current operational time committed to Project is all that is available • No capacity to accommodate “scope creep” • Training: • Cost of the substantial amount of staff time (and reasonable amount of travel) required for in-country training will not be met by in-kind contribution … so, future unclear • IT development: • Resource issues similar to those described above for training • In other words, at the RSMC level the Project depends on an on-going source of funding being secured for development activities

  6. Decision time … ? • What criteria must a Project meet before it is considered “matured” and therefore ready to be transitioned to “fully operational”? • A reasonable time series of verification? • Sufficient case work to build a picture of effectiveness? • Other? • The decision to transition (or not) a project to fully operational status • Is partly scientific, as described above • Is partly business, since it involves determining the resources required (affordability, sustainability), taking into account the long- term scope of the Project • May involve considering other options for delivering the desired outcomes

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