1 / 45

18.01

Shipping Forum, 23 January 2013 Shipping Market Update

elias
Télécharger la présentation

18.01

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Shipping Forum, 23 January 2013 Shipping Market Update & Ecoship Considerations Shipping Adviser Jarle Hammer 22.01

  2. 18.01 2

  3. 18.01 18.01 Countercyclical Investments 3

  4. ‘000 USD/d Source: Fearnleys Volatility 485% 293% 220% 260% 173% Volatility: Highest in % above Lowest 16.01

  5. TIME FOR M&A and Supply Measures

  6. Source: Clarkson Substantial Slow-Steaming Fleet Reserve Capacity Substantial Slow-Steaming Fleet Reserve Capacity

  7. VERY STRONG & WELL EQUIPPED – ABOUT SAME PRICE AS VLCC 7

  8. Source: Clarkson 18.01

  9. 9

  10. JACK-UP G o M JACK-UP NWE SEMI’s 5,000 ft + SEMI’s 2 - 5,000 ft IHS Petrodata: Rig Utilization & Rates Index 1994 = 100 10

  11. Source: Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor

  12. Economic Performance & Growth. Economist 17.01.13 % change IP-12m Infl-12m GDP-10 -11 -12 -13 USA 2.2 1.7 2.9 1.7 2.2 2.0 Euro area - 3.7 2.2 1.7 1.7 - 0.4 - 0.1 Japan - 5.8 - 0.2 4.2 - 0.7 1.8 0.7 S. Korea 2.9 1.4 6.1 3.6 2.2 3.3 China 10.1 2.5 1.9 9.2 7.7 8.5 India - 0.1 10.6 9.1 7.1 5.4 6.5 Russia 1.9 6.5 6.4 4.3 3.7 3.6 Brazil - 1.0 5.8 7.7 2.91.03.5Thailand 83.3 3.6 7.0 1.2 5.84.2Malaysia 7.5 1.3 6.9 4.8 5.2 4.5 Indonesia 20.1 4.3 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.4 Philippines 9.6 2.9 6.9 3.6 5.5 6.1 Vietnam 5.9 6.8 6.8 5.9 4.9 5.4 13

  13. Source: Fearnleys Excessive Ordering Small Demand Growth Potential Revival? Ballast reduction 14

  14. Million tonnes oil equivalent Source: BP 15

  15. N.AMERICA R-O-W W.EUROPE M.EAST JAPAN FSU 16

  16. PEAK OIL IRRELEVANT Supply is a function of Price & Technology M.EAST OPEC N.AMERICA FSU N.SEA DEPLETION

  17. Million dwt Sources: Fearnleys & HMS Slippage 2011: 30% 2012: 40%

  18. Million tonnes Source: Clarkson

  19. Billion cbm Source: BP

  20. LNG very hot after closure of nuclear power plants However, shale gas a veritable negative game changer US could well become a net gas exporter Stokhman gas field shelved ? Source: BP

  21. Sources: Clarkson, Fearnleys, HMS MINOR BULK Roughly 1,550 mt in 2012 24

  22. Source: Clarkson

  23. Source: WSA 2012 11 months annualized

  24. Million tonnes. 3m av. China imp 2012 + 8.6% 27

  25. Forecast October 2012 2011 2012 2013 China 6.2 2.5 3.1 R-O-W 6.3 1.7 3.3 World 6.2 2.1 3.2

  26. Compiled by HMS

  27. Million dwt. 3m av. BDI

  28. Million dwt Source: Fearnleys

  29. Million GT All Types Cheap Finance from Yards and Governments Eco ships ? 2012 8m annualized 32

  30. Million dwt Sources: Fearnleys, Clarkson, HMS HMS est 33

  31. HMS est 34

  32. Container Fleet Decisions & Deliveries HMS est 35

  33. 36

  34. Soucrces: Fearnleys & Clarkson Sources: Fearnleys & Clarkson Million dwt 37

  35. ‘000 USD/d USD/t Increased Focus on Fuel Economy Source: Fearnleys

  36. Containership Fuel Consumption by Size & Speed 370 Size in teu 11 K 105 ULTRA LARGE from 25k to 17k (370 - 105 = 265 t) x USD 625 per t = about USD 165,000 reduction per day Slow-steaming open for substantial cost savings

  37. Source: Maersk Post 50% reduction over period. Considerably smaller reduction per teu transported due to slowsteaming -5% -13% -11% -12% -3% -10% Target Target

  38. ECO SHIPS – CENTRAL ISSUES Environmental benefits Less and cleaner fuel What about Company Economics ? - Eco Ship Newbuilding orders will delay market upturn - Additional costs for fuel saving measures ? - Retrofitting / New ship ? - Future bunker price ? - Vast majority of conventional vessels will decide rate levels - Lack of ability to skim future market peaks by speading up - Higher total fleet income per capital invested when using larger number of medium age vessels in fairly healthy markets

  39. Panamax R/V Costs 4,500 n.m. ‘000 USD Source: HMS

  40. PANAMAX BREAK-EVEN RATES New Eco Ship 10-yr Old Price usd 27.0 m usd 13.5 m Res. Value (300 USD/ldt) usd 3.6 m usd 3.6 m Rest life/Calc.interest 25 yrs/8% 15 yrs/8% Capital element ~ 7,000 usd/d ~ 4,100 usd/d Operating cost * 6,500 usd/d 6,500 usd/d Calculated B/E 13,500 usd/d 10,600 usd/d Bunker advantage (270 days at sea) 200 usd/t ~ 900 usd/d 600 usd/t ~ 2,700 usd/d 1,000 usd/t ~ 4,400 usd/d Source: HMS

  41. ‘000 USD/d Source: HMS Investment 27 m USD Bunker price & voyage rate in USD/t

More Related