SEPA –who, what, how etc?

1. “Questions looking for answers and vice versa: Environmental Regulation and Environmental Data". Dr Campbell Gemmell, SEPA.

2. SEPA –who, what, how etc? • Our mission is to protect and improve the environment of Scotland • To achieve 6 outcomes re: air, water, land, waste, engaged protected public, contributing to economic and social wellbeing • Annual targets and priorities set by Government. • See website www.sepa.org.uk • Scotland’s EPA • Implementing EU, UK, Scots environmental law • Excellent regulator and recognised authority on the environment • Wide activity range – policy to permitting and monitoring & reporting • 1240 staff, 22 offices, 4 labs, £61m t/o • Modern public body/ NDPB/Governance

3. Environmental Data Use in SEPA • Effectiveness of ‘measures’ monitoring (ie are actions that we and others take having the expected effect) • Statutory reporting (EC Directives, eg Water Framework Directive) • To inform wider State of Environment Reporting (forthcoming report and conference) • Regulatory compliance assessment

4. Some Common Statistical Questions • Is environmental quality getting better or worse ? • Has our regulatory activity had an effect on the environment ? • Is our monitoring representative ? • What confidence do we have in the class assigned to this waterbody ? • Is this data point an outlier ?

5. The Monitoring Challenge Faced • Can we measure the environment effectively and efficiently? • Are the data we collect able to tell us what we want to know ?

6. Some Current Data Quality Issues • Values at limit of detection – How should we handle censored (<‘s) data appropriately? Work underway within SEPA examining use of more robust techniques. • Unusually high (or low) values (outliers) • How should we detect these? • Work is underway to assess multivariate outlier detection methods.

7. Examples of Data Analysis • To inform stakeholders – eg. Nitrates Directive (NVZ) consultation • To predict current conditions – eg. Bathing waters signage project • To inform effective regulation – eg. Tay Estuary improvements • To report on the State of Scotland’s Environment – eg. Diffuse Pollution, Data on Waste, climate change • To assess ‘uncertainty’ – eg. Confidence of Class

8. 1. Informing Stakeholders – Nitrates Directive • EC Nitrates Directive required designation of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones if needed. • Analysis of risk to both surface and groundwater quality informed designation. • Historical data analysis undertaken by Environmental Assessment unit played key role. • Analysis made available via dedicated website. • Presentation of data enabled more effective communication of risk to stakeholders at public meetings involving farmers affected.

9. 2. Predicting Current Conditions - Bathing Waters Signage Project • Aims to predict good/poor microbial quality • Inform users via electronic signs each day • Predictions based on near real time rainfall and river flow data monitored by SEPA • Predictions use Decision Tree models • Models proving successful in forecasting correctly against current standards • Looking promising for use with future (more stringent) EU directive standards

10. 3. To inform effective regulation - Tay estuary - Waste Water discharge pressures = Waste Water Discharge = SEPA Monitoring point

11. To inform effective regulation - Tay estuary - Ammonia Inputs • Ammonia inputs decreased substantially when Dundee sewage discharge was removed in 2002.

12. 4. To report on State of Scotland’s Environment – Diffuse pollution • Diffuse pollution is a major pressure for all water body types • Quantifying diffuse pollution pressures and impacts is difficult because: • Diffuse pollution fluxes are very dependent on other factors (eg. weather, land management practices) • There is a need for development of improved process and statistical models for quantifying and understanding diffuse pollution pressures

13. Sector pressures on rivers at risk (24%) from diffuse sources of pollution

14. To Report on Scotland’s Environment: Biodegradable Municipal Waste (BMW)

15. To report on Scotland’s Environment: Recycling and Composting Rate

16. To report on Scotland’s Environment: Climate Change

17. Wetter winters

18. Consequences of altered river hydrology on stream chemistry Dissolved Organic Carbon trends

19. 5. To Assess ‘Uncertainty’ – Confidence of Class Statistics • EC Water Framework Directive requires SEPA to quantify and report confidence in our quality classification scheme. • Confidence of Class statistics encapsulate the uncertainties • Confidence of Class statistics are used to prioritise programmes of measures.

20. Conclusions • SEPA collects a lot of environmental data • We need to make best use of it to answer a range of questions – we have lots of questions! • Appropriate statistical analysis and modelling of data are increasingly important to us • We want and need to embrace new assessment/ monitoring/ statistical methods and techniques where possible • We need to employ individuals who are able to undertake appropriate environmental data analysis – closely connected to policy and practice specialists