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Update on groundfish stock trends for the Gulf of Alaska

Update on groundfish stock trends for the Gulf of Alaska. Additional GOA Plan Team Members Diana Stram NPFMC Bill Bechtol ADFG Tory O’Connell ADFG Mike Ruccio ADFG Lew Halderson UAF Kathy Kuletz USFWS Bill Clark IPHC Farron Wallace WDF Jeff Fujioka AFSC Sarah Gaichas AFSC

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Update on groundfish stock trends for the Gulf of Alaska

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  1. Update on groundfish stock trends for the Gulf of Alaska Additional GOA Plan Team Members Diana Stram NPFMC Bill Bechtol ADFG Tory O’Connell ADFG Mike Ruccio ADFG Lew Halderson UAF Kathy Kuletz USFWS Bill Clark IPHC Farron Wallace WDF Jeff Fujioka AFSC Sarah Gaichas AFSC Jon Heifetz AFSC Tom Pearson AKR Beth Sinclair NMML Sandra Lowe and James N. Ianelli Gulf of Alaska Groundfish Plan Team

  2. Summary by biomass

  3. Projected biomass by species~4 million tons total

  4. Summary by ABC’s

  5. Projected ABC’s by species 414,820 tons total

  6. ABC Summary Species Change 2002 2003 Pollock 58,250 54,350 (7%) down 3,900 Pacific cod 57,600 52,800 (8%) down 4,800 Flatfish 63,900 63,690 down 210 (<1%) Flathead sole 22,690 41,390 up 18,700 (82%) Arrowtooth 146,260 155,140 up 8,880 (6%) 12,820 Sablefish 13,110 up 290 (2%) 13,190 Pacific ocean perch 13,660 up 470 (4%) 4,980 Northern rockfish 5,530 up 550 (11%) 1,620 Shortraker/Rougheye 1,620 same - 5,040 Other slope rockfish 5,050 up 10 - 5,490 Pelagic shelf rockfish 5,490 same - 350 Demersal shelf rockfish 390 up 40 (11%) Thornyheads 1,990 2,000 up 10 (1%) Atka mackerel 600 600 same - 414,820 up 20,040 (5%) 394,780 Total

  7. Pollock Biomass or Recruitment Catch

  8. Pollock Biomass

  9. Fit to winter EIT surveys

  10. Fit to trawl surveys…

  11. Pollockmodelresults Spawning biomass Recruitment

  12. Added pollock conservation measures • Model selected • Survey catchability assumption fixed at 1.0 • Updated maturity-at-age used • Assuming average 1999 yearclass • Constant-buffer scheme used • No adjustments to the 2002 Shelikof Strait survey estimate

  13. Shelf break

  14. Pollock 2003 ABC 1999 year class as estimated Average 1999 year class Author's adjustment 49,600 86,000 Maximum permissible 59,200 102,000

  15. 2002 Prob(SSB<B20) = 0.21 2003, Prob(SSB<B20) = 0.02 2004, Prob(SSB<B20) = 0.00 20% 30% 40% 50% Percent of unfished

  16. Pollock Spawning biomass • Spawning biomass (1,000’s tons) • 2003 = 177 • B40% = 240 • B20% = 120

  17. ABC Summary Species Change 2002 2003 Pollock 58,250 54,350 (7%) down 3,900 Pacific cod 57,600 52,800 (8%) down 4,800 Flatfish 63,900 63,690 down 210 (<1%) Flathead sole 22,690 41,390 up 18,700 (82%) Arrowtooth 146,260 155,140 up 8,880 (6%) 12,820 Sablefish 13,110 up 290 (2%) 13,190 POP 13,660 up 470 (4%) 4,980 Northern rockfish 5,530 up 550 (11%) 1,620 Shortraker/Rougheye 1,620 same - 5,040 Other slope rockfish 5,050 up 10 - 5,490 Pelagic shelf rockfish 5,490 same - 350 Demersal shelf rockfish 390 up 40 (11%) Thornyheads 1,990 2,000 up 10 (1%) Atka mackerel 600 600 same - 414,820 up 20,040 (5%) 394,780 Total

  18. Pacific cod • Notes: • Selectivity estimated over three stanzas:1978-86, 1987-99, & 2000 to the present • Risk-averse ratio applied to F40% • Steller sea lion prey species • Last survey in 2001 (next in 2003)

  19. Pacific cod

  20. Pacific cod • Female spawning biomass (tons) • 2003 = 88,300 • B40% = 90,300 • B20% = 45,150

  21. ABC Summary Species Change 2002 2003 Pollock 58,250 54,350 (7%) down 3,900 Pacific cod 57,600 52,800 (8%) down 4,800 Flatfish 63,900 63,690 down 210 (<1%) Flathead sole 22,690 41,390 up 18,700 (82%) Arrowtooth 146,260 155,140 up 8,880 (6%) 12,820 Sablefish 13,110 up 290 (2%) 13,190 Pacific ocean perch 13,660 up 470 (4%) 4,980 Northern rockfish 5,530 up 550 (11%) 1,620 Shortraker/Rougheye 1,620 same - 5,040 Other slope rockfish 5,050 up 10 - 5,490 Pelagic shelf rockfish 5,490 same - 350 Demersal shelf rockfish 390 up 40 (11%) Thornyheads 1,990 2,000 up 10 (1%) Atka mackerel 600 600 same - 414,820 up 20,040 (5%) 394,780 Total

  22. Flathead sole (new assessment)

  23. Flathead sole • Female spawning biomass (tons) • 2003 = 93,500 • B40% = 38,100

  24. Arrowtooth flounder

  25. Flatfish 2003 ABC’s260,220 tons total

  26. ABC Summary Species Change 2002 2003 Pollock 58,250 54,350 (7%) down 3,900 Pacific cod 57,600 52,800 (8%) down 4,800 Flatfish 63,900 63,690 down 210 (<1%) Flathead sole 22,690 41,390 up 18,700 (82%) Arrowtooth 146,260 155,140 up 8,880 (6%) 12,820 Sablefish 13,110 up 290 (2%) 13,190 Pacific ocean perch 13,660 up 470 (4%) 4,980 Northern rockfish 5,530 up 550 (11%) 1,620 Shortraker/Rougheye 1,620 same - 5,040 Other slope rockfish 5,050 up 10 - 5,490 Pelagic shelf rockfish 5,490 same - 350 Demersal shelf rockfish 390 up 40 (11%) Thornyheads 1,990 2,000 up 10 (1%) Atka mackerel 600 600 same - 414,820 up 20,040 (5%) 394,780 Total

  27. Sablefish • Notes • Survey abundance increased ~6% from 2001 estimate • Status “moderate” and increased from recent low levels (nearly at B40% level) • Authors proposed ABC recommendation based on estimates of probability of future stock sizes • Plan Team agreed with ABC (in general) but not the method

  28. Sablefish

  29. Sablefish spawning biomass • Spawning biomass (1,000’s tons) • 2003 = 210 • B40% = 216

  30. ABC Summary Species Change 2002 2003 Pollock 58,250 54,350 (7%) down 3,900 Pacific cod 57,600 52,800 (8%) down 4,800 Flatfish 63,900 63,690 down 210 (<1%) Flathead sole 22,690 41,390 up 18,700 (82%) Arrowtooth 146,260 155,140 up 8,880 (6%) 12,820 Sablefish 13,110 up 290 (2%) 13,190 Pacific ocean perch 13,660 up 470 (4%) 4,980 Northern rockfish 5,530 up 550 (11%) 1,620 Shortraker/Rougheye 1,620 same - 5,040 Other slope rockfish 5,050 up 10 - 5,490 Pelagic shelf rockfish 5,490 same - 350 Demersal shelf rockfish 390 up 40 (11%) Thornyheads 1,990 2,000 up 10 (1%) Atka mackerel 600 600 same - 414,820 up 20,040 (5%) 394,780 Total

  31. Pacific ocean perch

  32. Northern rockfish

  33. POP & northern rockfish biomass

  34. Slope Rockfish 2003 ABC’s25,860 tons total

  35. Rockfish spawning biomass • Spawning biomass (1,000’s tons) • POP: • 2003 = 112 • B40% = 105 • Northern: • 2003 = 43 • B40% = 25

  36. Pelagic shelf rockfish: biomass Dusky, widow, & yellowtail

  37. Pelagic shelf rockfish: catch Dusky, widow, & yellowtail

  38. Demersal shelf rockfish

  39. Thornyheads

  40. Thornyhead spawning biomass • Spawning biomass (1,000’s tons) • 2003 = 22.8 • B40% = 15.8

  41. Rockfish Stock Status

  42. Rockfish Stock StatusSpawning biomass / BMSY

  43. ABC summary relative to maximum permissible

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