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What are the Stakes?

What are the Stakes?. Office winning motivations Anthony Downs: ‘Parties formulate policies to elections, rather than win elections in order to formulate policies’ William Riker: Theory of coalitions – with office as a fixed prize No attempts (for a long time) to connect the two theories.

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What are the Stakes?

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  1. What are the Stakes? • Office winning motivations • Anthony Downs: ‘Parties formulate policies to elections, rather than win elections in order to formulate policies’ • William Riker: Theory of coalitions – with office as a fixed prize • No attempts (for a long time) to connect the two theories

  2. What are the Stakes? • Voters • Concerned with policy • Forward looking • Expectations about coalitions • Politicians • Do things while they are in office • At the least, pretend to have preferences over policy

  3. What are the Stakes? • De Swann: Candidates care foremost about policy. • Not an unproblematic view either • If politicians only care about policy, why do parties compete for office • Policy is ultimately made in the legislature.

  4. Office Motivation • Two views: • An end in itself • Means to influence policy • If an end in itself there is only one way to win: Get into office • If ‘being in’ is the only thing that matters why not grand coalitions? • The office as a fixed prize

  5. Office Motivation • If a fixed prize, coalition formation is a competitive process of dividing up the pie. • Exclusivity? • A bigger share? • Degrees of incumbency • Prime Ministership • Foreign Affairs, Finance (“Status Ministries”)

  6. Office Motivation • Spoils of office • Portfolios • Difference between systems • Non-ministerial appointments • Votes in cabinet • Admits policy concern • Patronage

  7. Policy Motivation • Parties motivated by the strength of their policy preference • For example, Communist parties inflexible, Christian Democrats not • Italy • PCI – Italian Communist Party • The historic compromise of the post-war period • Abandon ideas of socialist transformation of state in favor of more moderate policies

  8. Policy Motivation • Italy (cont.) • PRI trying to avoid isolation. • Office seeking elements? Or instrumental behavior? • Christian Democrats (DC) as office seekers • DC strategy involves painting the PRI as ‘fanatics’ – rules them out as coalition partners

  9. Policy Motivation • Lesson • Motivation? • Strategies • Extremes as fanatics • Center as opportunists • Policy motivation and the production of public goods • What about ‘the right’?

  10. Policy Dimensions • Policy Dimensions & Policy Space Christian Democrats CSP Conservatives X SDP Liberals Communists

  11. Policy Dimensions • Problems with measuring • Euclidean space • Policies may be discrete • How do we position parties in the policy space: • Country studies • Expert surveys • Multidimensional scaling of roll-calling votes • Policy programmes/Manifestos • Mass Surveys

  12. Achieving Policy Objectives • If parties are policy motivates we must consider importance of holding office • If in opposition a party can influence policy: • In parliament: Votes, amendments, delays, concessions • Ability to make or break government (if pivotal) • Committees and other institutions

  13. Achieving Policy Objectives • Index of oppositional influence • Number of standing committees • Whether committees shadow ministries • Committee positions • Committee chairs • Is government membership necessary? • Government departments implement policy & make many minor policy choices • Formulation of policy

  14. Office as a means to an end • Executive influence • Cabinet makes many key decisions • How do cabinets make decisions? • Majority Rule • Unanimity • The role of cabinet portfolios

  15. Office as a means to an end • Party Hierarchy & Motivation • Party members may have different motivations • Party leaders/elite tend to emphasize compromise and cabinet participation • Regular members may adhere more strictly to policy • E.g., U.K. Labour

  16. Office as a means to an end • Ireland’s Labour Party • Coalition with Fine Gael • Cuts in public spending • Labour: “What would have happened if..?” • Break-up of 1992-1997 coalition • Allows Labour to make the argument that their presence actually had a moderating influence

  17. Policy as a means to an end • Models of electoral competition have assumed office-seeking politicians • Coalition theories – policy considered important • Policy a vehicle to win elections • Politicians only concerned about policy to the extent that it helps them win elections

  18. Policy as a means to an end • A complete theory has to address both elections and coalition formation • Furthermore, we would also like to be able to say how past events influence future coalitions • When policy is instrumental, it is only important in terms of the opportunities a particular policy provides

  19. So….. • …what does winning mean? • Possibilities: • Office seekers using policy • Policy seekers needing to win office • Policy seekers not caring about office • The shadow of the future • ‘Winning’ is not simple idea • Usually the need to win office (for whatever reason) is emphasized

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