Stefanie Dannenmann & Reid Basher UN/ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

1. UN/ISDR Platform for the Promotion Early Warning & the tsunami early warning systems in Indian Ocean Stefanie Dannenmann & Reid Basher UN/ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW), Bonn Taking a systems approach to disaster risk New views on early warning Role of science and technology EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

2. What is a disaster? Natural hazard Storm, flood, hurricane drought, volcanic eruption, earthquake, tsunami, landslide, etc) Vulnerability of society to the hazard (due to location, environment, lack of preparedness or capacity) + DISASTER Disaster: “A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources” EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

3. Disaster risks – growing and changing Increases; 1990s versus 1960s Events of the last 12 months Sumatra tsunami Hurricanes in Gulf and Asia; Floods in India and Europe; Fires in North America, Europe Earthquake in Pakistan But death tolls in drought and flood have reduced - through early warning, food aid and preparedness Disasters are mostly weather-related EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

4. Reasons for rising disaster risks ? ….Increasing vulnerability More people and poor people in risky and unsustainable situations Unsafe development: floodplain settlement, coastal exploitation, mega-city growth, unsafe houses, wetland destruction, river channeling, deforestation Soil erosion and fertility decline, desertification Exacerbated by poverty and disease, conflict and population displacement Growing disasters are a sign of unsustainable development EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

5. A systems approach to reducing risks Since disasters are a human phenomenon, we can change our ways to reduce our risks Shift the focus from hazards to risk management Understand the nature of the risks - both the hazards and the vulnerabilities Put in place the tools and methods to assess, predict, ameliorate, and respond to risk, Ensure strong political support, administrative capacity and community engagement EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

6. Monitoring (initial state) System model (time evolving) Prediction (probabilistic) Behaviour (complex) Seismicity, sea level Ocean wave propagation, coastal run-up Z(x, y, t) +  Knowledge, belief, emotion, preparedness A linear systems model – tsunami early warning system Issues for tsunami EWS: - No seismic prediction, high speed of process; • Poor data on initial state (sea level and coastal zone); - High uncertainty and false alarm rate. EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

7. The linear paradigm –scientifically appealing but deficient Operated by scientists and technologists; often with weak linkages to those in need of warnings Difficult to communicate uncertainty, false alarms, etc Focus is on the hazard, with little emphasis on the vulnerabilities Few mechanisms for feedback from users and those at risk Little empowerment or engagement of those at risk Mistrust of experts and authorities Recall the Hurricane Katrina disaster …… Experience of past failures shows that effective early warning systems must be both systematic and people-centred EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

8. An integrated systems model – early warning system Knowledge of hazard Institutional commitment and mechanisms Mitigation, education, preparedness Research Communities Monitoring (initial state) System model (time evolving) Response behaviours Prediction (probabilistic) EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

9. Risk assessment Warning service + + + Communication + Preparedness The four components of people-centred EW systems EW systems typically fail in the communication and preparedness elements In Hurricane Katrina, the risk knowledge also failed to effectively penetrate public and policymaker consciousness With the Indian Ocean tsunami, failures occurred in all four elements EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

10. Priority projects of ISDR Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW) $11M project on strengthening of early warning in tsunami-affected countries (with other UN and regional organisations) Global survey of early warning system gaps and needs, for UN Secretary General (he called for global system for “all-hazards and all countries”) Database of proposals for new projects on EW systems Third International Early Warning Conference, Bonn, 27-29 March 2006 Coordinate implementation of early warning parts of the Hyogo Framework for Action Advocate systematic, people-centred early warning systems EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

11. Early Warning Strengthening Project UN Flash Appeal Project: Evaluation and Strengthening of Early Warning Systems in Countries Affected by the 26 December 2004 Tsunami Initiated by ISDR and UNESCO-IOC, as part of the UN Flash Appeal UNESCO-IOC leads technical elements ISDR undertakes the programmatic and coordination parts of the project Involves all of ISDR including Africa and Asia outreach offices; effort led by Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW) EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

12. Early Warning Strengthening Project UN Flash Appeal Project: Evaluation and Strengthening of Early Warning Systems in Countries Affected by the 26 December 2004 Tsunami Pledges were made for more than US$ 11.4 million towards this initiative. Strong support: Japan (US$ 4 M), Sweden (US$ 1.4 M), Norway (US$ 1.4 M), European Commission (US$ 2.6 M), Finland (USD 1.3 M), Germany (US$ 0.39 M), and Netherlands (US$ 0.35 M) In 2005, the total amount received is US$ 10,507,208 To date, US$ 7,970,410 is committed and/or spent. EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

13. Implementing Partners ABU ADRC ADPC CRED AIDMI University of Geneva UNDP UNESCO-IOC UNEP UNESCAP UNU-EHS WMO EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

14. Project strategic framework Core system implementation Integrated risk management Public awareness and education Community-level approaches Project coordination EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

15. Role of science and technology (S&T) in disaster risk reduction History of S&T leadership in disaster risk reduction Science-based agencies active in the ISDR But social sciences needs and inputs not well represented Hyogo framework identifies S&T needs Need for a comprehensive disaster research agenda GEO/GEOSS adopts disaster reduction as a key focus British proposal for International Science Panel on Natural Hazards; followed up by G8 statement Moves to get S&T systematically addressed in new ISDR System EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

16. Conclusions New thinking on disaster risk; recognition of its role in development; focus on developing “resilience” to risk The tsunami early warning issue is part of much larger disaster agenda – must plug in to this Effective early warning = systematic and people-centred Broader view of early warning and its potential Need for more systematic approaches; in research, planning, cost-benefit analysis, and implementation Critical role for science and technology www.unisdr-earlywarning.orgwww.unisdr.org EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006