Update on Regional Modeling System: NW Weather Workshop 2007

1. Update on the Regional Modeling SystemCliff Mass, David Ovens, Richard Steed, Mark Albright, Phil Regulski, Jeff Baars, David Carey Northwest Weather Workshop March 3, 2007

2. Supported by the Northwest Modeling Consortium…the regional modeling effort centered at the UW is • Running the MM5 at 36, 12, and 4 km resolution • Running the new WRF model at 36, 12 km resolution • Running TWO high resolution regional ensemble systems to provide probabilistic forecasts and data assimilation • Gathering all local weather observations from dozens of networks. Plus quality control. • Running a wide range of weather applications dealing with air quality, hydrology, transportation weather and fire weather.

4. 36 km

5. 12 km

6. 4 km

7. A Few of the Major Efforts and Improvements this Year

8. Evaluation of WRF • WRF: the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, is the replacement for the MM5 and should be the national mesoscale model used by both the operational and research community. • On paper a far better model…but it will take time for all the bugs to removed and to regain all of the same capabilities. • We are now running it at 36 and 12 km grid spacing, and will be replacing the current test version with the newest version with major physics improvements and nudging on the outer domain.

9. Evaluation • We will evaluate the new real-time WRF this spring and for major historical cases. • If equal or superior, the modeling consortium will probably ok the shift from MM5 to WRF. • Evaluations of old version show differences but not superiority.

10. Example of MM5 vs WRF Verifications

11. March 1 Convergence Zone Event

12. The Model Suggested Lowland Snow

14. The UW Quality Control System • A major task continues to be the gathering of all real-time observations of the region into one place • Right now we acquire over 60 networks in real time for displaying on our web site, verification, and many other uses • But how does one remove bad data in the massive amount of information we gather?

15. The Answer: The UW Quality Control and Warning System • We have developed an advanced QC system suitable for an area of complex terrain (Jeff Baars) • We have developed an automated QC display system that one can check on the web and which can automatically tell the manager of a network when their data is suspect (David Carey)

16. Direction QC

20. Map Selection Interface • We have a new map interface for getting soundings, time height cross sections and meteograms at ANY location. • Done by Phil Regulski

23. Local Data Assimilation • A major new effort has begun to assimilate all local observations to create a physically consistent three dimensional picture of the regional atmosphere. • Needed for many reasons…including better short-term forecasts and air quality studies. • The approach makes use of a 90-member ensemble system--Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)--probably the best approach possible for using the forecast model to use local observations

24. Local Data Assimilation • It will actually produce 90 different analyses that be combined to produce the best guess at what is there and tell us the uncertainty in the analyses. • These analyses can be integrated forward in time to give us probabilistic predictions of the future • We now have it running at 36 and 12 km resolution…more this year!

28. Weather Radar on the Washington Coast: Our Time May Have Come!

29. Now With Two New Radars

30. The Year • More interest among WA Congressmen and Senators • More power in NW delegation due to changes in Congress • Local communities along the coast are interested and lobbying • Local meteorologists should write and email and use their influence.

33. The END