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NATO, World Security and Terrorism Portobello High School 16 March, 2010

NATO, World Security and Terrorism Portobello High School 16 March, 2010. Many issues to consider but my focus is on …. A little background What is NATO doing now? Justification for new role What is its relevance to us? Is it working ok? Thoughts about the future….

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NATO, World Security and Terrorism Portobello High School 16 March, 2010

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  1. NATO, World Security and Terrorism Portobello High School 16 March, 2010

  2. Many issues to consider but my focus is on … A little background What is NATO doing now? Justification for new role What is its relevance to us? Is it working ok? Thoughts about the future… Where we are and where we are going?

  3. Operated in Europe only 16 members Enemy-USSR & allies Political, diplomatic and military alliance with clear purpose and consensus SUCCESSFUL- prevented war in Europe Up to 1989

  4. NATO “Deterrence” Goal of NATO has been deterrence NATO’s was there to avert a Soviet/ Warsaw Pact attack- “nothing to gain” NATO relied on nuclear superiority to offset inferiority in “conventional” arms 1980’s- General Rogers, SACEUR- “Currently, we can only sustain ourselves for a short time. I will then be forced to follow ministers’ guidance and ask for authorisation… to use nuclear weapons”

  5. NATO in the 1990’s London Declaration, 1990 – “new beginning” Reduction in conventional forces ( tanks, artillery) Partnership for Peace – working with former enemies Enlargement of NATO- New members “Yugoslavia” - NATO was asked by UN to “enforce” peace initiatives in Bosnia and Kosovo

  6. 1995- NATO gets involved in Bosnia UN Mandate NATO Air Campaign Dayton/ Treaty of Paris NATO land forces committed- over 50,000 IFOR/SFOR

  7. 1999- Kosovo Majority of people in Kosovo sought independence from Yugoslavia Armed conflict /ethnic cleansing NATO Air Campaign - NATO Land based forces - KFOR NATO conducts 11 months of bombing raids on Yugoslavia. It is the first time NATO acts against a state without UN approval.

  8. 9.11.01 • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPh7ECq9sc0&feature=PlayList&p=6441493C4B646F18&playnext=1&index=31 • Allies invoked Art.5:-Attack on US is “attack against all • 8 measures (4 October 2001)

  9. Unique combination of factors: - global reach, capability, resilience, sophistication, ambition, and lack of restraint More difficult to keep track of individuals Greater availability of arms World wide/easier communications Rise of Fundamentalism 9.11.01 and afterTerrorism-What’s different?

  10. “Security threats” from outside Europe NATO needed to reshape and reorganise “Level playing- field”? Could European allies provide sufficient military support, alongside USA? 9/11- “A huge challenge” for NATO

  11. Mediterranean and maritime Afghanistan Rapid Reaction Response Force Nuclear, biological and chemical threats Dealing with “after-effects” & “consequences” Building partnerships NATO dealing with terrorist threats

  12. Dealing with terrorist threats- At sea • “Active Endeavour”- Mediterranean • Purpose –to deter terrorism • Why: • Stop terrorist attacks on people in Europe • Shipping routes are vulnerable • Previous terrorist attacks- USS Cole 2000; French oil tanker in 2002 - 65% of oil/gas consumed in West Europe pass through Med.

  13. Shipping routes and “choke points”: - 20% of daily oil supply via Straits of Hormuz 12% of global trade passes Gulf of Aden - 80% of supplies for Afghanistan sent by sea In 2008, 4 major oil co’s asked NATO for tanker protection NATO role in policing/ protecting shipping: - Naval force off Somalia/ dealing with pirates - “Maritime situational awareness” - Importance of partnerships Dealing with terrorist and other threats- At sea

  14. Dealing with terrorist threats- Afghanistan – What happened in ‘01? • Post 9/11-“Bush Doctrine” • US-led “Operation Enduring Freedom” • Bonn Conference - Dec 01 • UN set up Int’l Security Assistance Force (ISAF) • Afghan opposition proposes new Gov’t • ISAF mandated to secure Kabul

  15. Dealing with terrorist threats- Afghanistan – 2003 to 2005 • UN offers leadership of ISAF to NATO • NATO- control of command, co-ordination and planning • UN extended ISAF mandate to all Afghanistan in 4 stages • By end ’05, 30,000 personnel from 26 Allies and 11 non-NATO nations

  16. Taliban attacks “ bolder and widespread” Improvised explosive attacks (IEDs): - 48% higher in ’08; 828 IEDs in July ’09 Total casualties of coalition forces- over 1,400 Elections – questions about voting/polling; President Karsai re-elected but discredited Dealing with terrorist threats- Afghanistan – 2009

  17. Committed further 30,000 US troops. Indicated intention to start withdrawal in 2011 Other NATO members to contribute 5000 plus USA "founded in resistance to oppression" Need for "effective partnership" with Pakistan Dealing with terrorist threats- Afghanistan –President Obama- 1/12/09

  18. Dealing with terrorist threats- Afghanistan –March, 2010 ISAF 43 Troop Contributing Nations c.86,000 troops ( UK- c.9.5K) Afghanistan- 650,000 km² ( 10 times Bosnia!) 26 Provincial Reconstruction Teams PLUS Afghan Army and Police Afghan army- c.100k ( planning for 130k in 2010) Afghan police- c.81k

  19. Helmand Province

  20. 23,058m; largest province in size In the south; 160Km border with Pakistan Extreme range of temperatures Sparsely populated ( population- 1.1 million) Capital- Lashkar Gah Main ethnic group- Pashtun Helmand Province

  21. Helmand- A few scenes

  22. Infant mortality- 152 deaths/1000 live births ( Iraq- 44/1000; UK-4,85/1000) Maternal mortality-1600 deaths/100000 births Life expectancy- 44 years (Iraq- 66.5;UK- 79) High illiteracy- 43% men; 14% women 1/3 unable to get enough food to live active, healthy lives Life is hard

  23. People

  24. Taliban soldiers

  25. “Decisive clearing operations” on threatened populations ISAF will:   - Gain initiative by protecting the population in densely populated areas  - Initial “Gain the Initiative” to take 12 to 18 months - Separate insurgency influence from the populace - Help to re-establish rule of law and deliver basic services - Implement security measures to help economic recovery , foster community development and generate employment Current ISAF Strategy- Operation Moshtarak

  26. Not everyone is pulling their weight… Shortages of soldiers, kit, weapons etc Training of Afghan National Army Presidential elections in Afghanistan Co- operation with Afghan Government Need to win “hearts and minds” NATO needs to avoid civilian casualties “ Conflict” between different values/cultures Dealing with terrorist threats- Afghanistan –Critical Issues

  27. Dealing with terrorist threats- Other issues Nuclear Biological Chemical Defence (NBCD) AWAC aircraft to protect airspace Missile defence Crisis management

  28. WMD – risks to international security NATO seeks to prevent the proliferation of WMD NATO’s practical initiatives NATO’s work improve civil capabilities NATO support for arms control and non-proliferation regimes Weapons of mass destruction (WMD)

  29. Chemical Biological Nuclear Defence

  30. Airborne Early Warning System

  31. Peacekeeping- Yugoslavia ( Bosnia, Kosovo) Dealing with terrorist threats Making NATO forces more flexible How has NATO changed since 1990?

  32. Air: about 200 sorties per day Land component: brigade size Up to NATO Task Force NATO Response Force(NRF) Strength ( 25,000) NRF Under the command of a Deployable Joint Task Force HQ

  33. Highly ready and technologically advanced Can do wide range of missions worldwide Can deploy after five days’ notice Six-month rotations Preceded by a six months of training NRF

  34. NRF- Flexibility and speed

  35. Civil Emergency Planning

  36. Pakistan Earthquake, 2005NATO Relief Operation

  37. Peacekeeping- Yugoslavia ( Bosnia, Kosovo) Dealing with terrorist threats Making NATO forces more flexible Building partnerships How has NATO changed since 1990?

  38. United Nations (UN) and European Union (EU) Euro Atlantic Partnership Council Partnership for Peace Russia and Ukraine Istanbul Co-operation Initiative Mediterranean Dialogue Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe Building Relationships with Others

  39. Since 24.01.01 co-operated on security issues. 21 EU members are members of NATO Common strategic interests Tensions and friction - Security & Defence Policy - European members “under spending on military” - France versus USA NATO and EU

  40. NATO Russia Council (NRC) - regular meetings Practical cooperation - crisis management, civil emergency planning, and environmental security NRC- “an effective forum for political dialogue” Annual work programme NATO and Russia do not always agree on everything and differences remain on some issues… NATO/Russia Relations…

  41. NATO enlargement ( Georgia/ Ukraine/ Finland) Energy Missiles Kosovo NATO/Russia- Issues

  42. “The strongest potential sources of widespread warfare in the coming decade are likely to be frustrated aspirations in Russia, an isolated and resentful China, and a militant form of Islam which resorts to violence on a spasmodic but potentially catastrophic basis….” International Herald Tribune

  43. Cumbersome decision making (28 members ). Reluctance of some members to pay their way Lack of unity amongst the NATO members Relationship with EU ( EU Defence Force) European security on Obama agenda Russia Afghanistan Challenges facing NATO

  44. Then and Now Up to 1989 Operated in Europe only 16 members Enemy-USSR & allies Conventional, backed by nuclear Inward looking/ Europe only Military alliance with clear purpose and consensus Successful track record 2009 Europe and elsewhere 28 members Enemy- Terrorists, rogue states… More flexible force Building relations with neighbours in Europe and further afield Rather lop-sided alliance with less consensus Mixed track record

  45. Permanent forum for consultations Anti- terrorism operations ( Active Endeavour, Afghanistan, Balkans, Securing Public Events) Innovative technology Partnerships Managing consequences NATO & the Fight against Terrorism

  46. "We need to address terrorism as a whole society because it is our whole society which this new terrorism threatens. That means reaching out to those in our society who are being specifically targeted by Al Qaeda and others who would give support to extremist violence.” Regarding Afghanistan and Pakistan, “Britain's defence and foreign policy operations are often misunderstood or deliberately misrepresented, and that these efforts are in fact at the heart of tackling international terrorism. The greatest priority in tackling terrorism around the globe is the border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan.” Mr Bill RammellUK Minister of Armed Forces Speech- Aug, 2009

  47. Can politicians look longer term and make adequate protection against future threats? Is global engagement more or less easy now? How much are we prepared to devote to defence budget? How important is defence as a insurance policy to protect national interests? Is NATO is required now as much as it was in the past? Is the world more or less dangerous now? ( N. Korea, Iran etc) A few suggestions for discussion…

  48. Discussion

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