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Colorado’s 2003 Moisture Outlook

Colorado’s 2003 Moisture Outlook. Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu. How we got into this drought!. Fort Collins Total Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sep). Through 1999. Through 1999.

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Colorado’s 2003 Moisture Outlook

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  1. Colorado’s 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu

  2. How we got into this drought!

  3. Fort Collins Total Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sep)

  4. Through 1999

  5. Through 1999

  6. Reservoir Storage Provisional Data Provided by NRCS

  7. Colorado Statewide Annual Temperatures through 2002 From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center

  8. Summer Temperatures Fort Collins, 1889-2002

  9. Where do we stand now?

  10. Oct 2002 - Jan 2003 Precipitation as percent of average

  11. Temperature - Water Year 2003

  12. Water Year 2003UPPER SAN JUAN SNOTEL

  13. Water Year 2003HOOSIER PASS SNOTEL

  14. Water Year 2003JOE WRIGHT SNOTEL

  15. What May Be Ahead in 2003

  16. Precipitation

  17. Precipitation • A few storms contribute a large fraction of annual precipitation while many small events contribute a small fraction.

  18. What Happens Next • We have never experienced 2 consecutive extreme statewide drought years. • Past multi-year drought, characterized by one extreme year preceded and followed by other dry year. • Entire State rarely all recovers quickly and at the same time. • Hope for the best, plan for the worst!!

  19. Our Path For 2003 ??

  20. Positive Indicators • Late winter snows • Cool spring • Multi-day precipitation • Low intensity rainfall • Light winds • High humidity • Abundant cloud cover

  21. Negative Indicators • Little late winter snow • Missed opportunities • Warm spring • Brief, sporadic precipitation • High intensity rainfall • Frequent, strong winds • Low humidity • Abundant sunshine

  22. Current Indicators • El Niño still present • Unfavorable Pacific decadal oscillation • Missed opportunities • February not a good indicator • Wet often follows dry • Most extreme dry periods last one year (Exceptions: SE CO)

  23. TemperatureMarch-May 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

  24. PrecipitationMarch-May 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

  25. Temperature June-Aug 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

  26. PrecipitationJune-Aug 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

  27. Breaking This Drought Will Be Tough • A wet spring is essential to begin that process.

  28. COAGMETWeather Data for Agriculture • Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of: • Temperature • Humidity • Wind • Precipitation • Solar energy • Evapotranspiration http://www.COAGMET.com

  29. Colorado Climate Magazine • Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic • $15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs

  30. CoCo RaHSYOU CAN HELP! http://www.cocorahs.com

  31. Colorado Climate CenterColorado State University • Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading • http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu click on “Drought” then click on “Presentations”

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