Jagdish Kishwan Director General, Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education

1. Estimation of Forest Carbon Stocks in India: A Methodology based on National Forest Inventory CfRN-ICFRE International Workshop Dehradun, 27th April 2009 Jagdish Kishwan Director General, Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education

2. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol have made Carbon a tradable commodity

3. COP 13: December 2007 Bali Action Plan:“…Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries…” [Para 1b (iii) of BAP] = REDD-plus REDD:“...inter alia, assessments of changes in forest cover and associated carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions, incremental changes due to sustainable management of the forest…”

4. Emerging Policy Options Conservation, sustainable management of forests, increase in forest cover/A&R (Add C) Reducing deforestation and degradation rates (Save C)

5. Indian Viewpoint on REDD Comprehensive REDD Carbon Saved and Carbon Added • Reducing Deforestation & Degradation • Conservation, Sustainable Management of Forests, • Increase in Forest Cover (A&R) • Indian submission incorporates above and seeks incentives on • Incremental and Baseline stocks

6. Distribution of Global forest cover by region (%)

7. 10 Countries with largest forest cover(mha)

8. Global Forest Carbon (2005)

9. Based on Policy Approaches and Practices GLOBAL FOREST C STOCKS CHANGING STOCKS CONSTANT STOCKS INCREMENTAL DECREMENTAL HFLD, LFLD CN, SMF IFC +CN, SMF HFHD, LFHD HFLD: High Forest Cover Low deforestation LFLD: Low Forest Cover Low deforestation IFC: Increase in forest cover CN: Forest Conservation SMF: Sustainable Management of Forests HFHD: High Forest cover High Deforestation LFHD: Low Forest cover High Deforestation

10. State of Forest Carbon Stocks A fn of CONSTANT STOCKS cs INCREMENTAL STOCKS IS DECREMENTAL STOCKS DS CO2 C C Base Line Constant Stocks HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF Decremental Stocks HFHD, LFHD c Action of HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF for CS All actions are equally important in maintaining Global integrity of stocks Comprehensive approach Action of IFC, CN, SMF for IS Action of HFHD, LFHD for DS All three (CS, IS, DS) contribute in state of forest carbon stocks

11. REDD+ Mechanism Beneficial to all CountriesComprehensive Approach(All Contributors to SFC Equally Important) Incentives/compensation for all necessary Why incentives/compensation? Constant stocks (HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF) Cost on management, opportunity cost of conversion to more beneficial land uses Incremental stocks (IFC, CN, SMF) Cost on management, cost incurred on additional plantations, revenue loss due to no or reduced logging Decremental stocks (HFHD, LFHD) Revenue loss due to reduced logging

12. Acceptability of Comprehensive Mechanism? The only logical answer after Bali» REDD+ Inaccessible, undisturbed but managed forests to be counted provided costs on preserving their present state are incurred Conservation projects/areas also to be counted against commitment for continuing policy of conservation Some developed countries against comprehensive approach especially C but more important is logical conclusion of BAP If FC, EFCS effect state of global forest carbon, these cannot be ignored

13. Methodological and Policy Issues Unresolved State of readiness?? Finalization of Definitions, Modalities, Rules and Guidelines by COP 15??

14. Main Methodological Issues(SBSTA 28, Bonn June 2008,FCCC/SBSTA/2008/L.12) Estimation and monitoring National monitoring systems to facilitate results-based, demonstrable, transparent and verifiable estimates Options for robust, consistent methodologies including forest inventories, ground-based, and remote-sensing approaches, as appropriate; Applicability of the considered methodologies, including those in existing good practice guidance of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to the assessment of reductions in emissions from deforestation; reductions in emissions from degradation, and incremental changes due to sustainable management of the forest.

15. Development of Methodology…contd… Methodology Common to Both Policy Approaches based on remote sensing and minimum ground verification Simultaneous Development of Methodology

16. Assessment of Forest Carbon Stocks • Biomass Carbon • Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) At agreed interval with respect to • Reference emissions level • Reference level

17. Assessment of Forest Carbon Stocks: Indian Approach

18. Methodology to Assess Forest Carbon Stocks Work in progress on Second National Communication (SNC) to UNFCCC Biomass Carbon (FSI) SOC (ICFRE, IIRS)

19. Methodology to Assess Forest Carbon Stocks Carbon per unit area Biomass (agb + bgb) Soil Organic Carbon Sample Stratum Forest Type Groups (>200) Crown Density Classes (3) Sample Points (20,000 for BC, 600 for SOC) Calculation Algorithms for computing agb, bgb from wood or timber or stand volume

20. Biomass Carbon Estimation: FSI Approach Forest Type Mapping Scale 1:50,000 (providing minimum mappable area of 1 ha) Forest types (Champion and Seth Classification- 16 major forest types, 46 subgroups, ~200 subgroup types) Forest Cover Mapping Forest density (3 classes): Very dense >70%, Moderately dense 40-70%, Open 10-40%

21. Forest Cover Mapping Methodology in India • Methodology • forest cover assessment since 1987 on biennial cycle • digital interpretation of satellite data • intensive ground truthing • change maps • accuracy assessment First country in the world to start an operational system for monitoring forest cover • Analysis and output • district-wise area figures • change matrix • area figures for hill and tribal districts • maps available on 1:50,000 scale • capturing forest cover down to 1 ha (Resolution of 23.5 m), using IRS-1D LISS III sensor

22. ASSESSMENT OF GROWING STOCK, BIOMASS CARBON IN INDIA’S FORESTS 2.5’x2.5’ 2.5’x2.5’ Forest Cover Maps based on Satellite data Density Divided into Grids of 2½’x2½’ Selection of Forested Grids Aerial Photograph, Stock maps, Inventory forms Forest type/strata 2.½’x2.½’ Volume Location specific Inventory data Forest Non forest State/UT wise Calculation of volume in the Grid Growing Stock Assessment for the Entire country Map sheets Stratum wise 20,000 sample plots – Volume –Biomass (V*D)--Biomass Expansion factor -AGB) -- root shoot ratio - carbon factor (Estimated or IPCC default) Biomass Carbon

23. Accuracy Forest cover assessment accuracies >92 percent National level assessment of growing stock: sampling error of <3 per cent Development of biomass expansion factors and root: shoot ratio for more accurate estimates

24. Estimation of Growing Stocks at National Level Spatial data base in GIS comprising of 171,028 grid polygons of 2 ½’x 2½’ size (approximate area 18 km2) Polygon-wise estimation of growing stock using volume estimates for all the forested grids in the country

25. SOC Estimation: ICFRE-IIRS Approach • Forest Groups/major types : 16 • Sub-groups : 46 • Sub-group types : ~200 • No of replications : 3 • Total samples : 660 • Depth of sampling : 0-30 cm • Standard & uniform sampling and estimation procedure • Area coverage of each subgroup types (221) • Aggregation and upscaling to forest types (16) • Estimation of variability and uncertainty

26. Forest cover (FSI) Admin. boundary Forest types of India (C&S) Regi stration (Spatial standards) Regi stration (Spatial standards) Regi stration (Spatial standards) GIS integration DBT/DOS Reports Local knowledge Other data sources Identification of possible subgroup types Correction FSI DBT/DOS NRSA Global Others Field verification & soil sampling Soil analysis Soil C content Expert decision ANALYSIS Area of forest types/ major species Soil C density & stock Reporting Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon

27. Possible Correlations Forest Type Groups [R] Biomass Carbon Forest Type Groups [R] Soil Carbon

28. Estimates of Forest Biomass Carbon Density of Indian Forests Historical: 77.3 t/ha (1880) Recent estimate by various workers based on remote sensing and ground based verification: 32-65 t/ha Current estimation of forest biomass carbon (in progress) by Forest Survey of India

29. Carbon (t/ha) in biomass different forest types of India (Derived from Tiwari and Singh 1987) Range: 20-303 t/ha in different forest types

30. 25.4 Tropical Thorn Forest 155.2 Littoral Swamp Forest Range: 25.38 t/ha in Tropical Thorn Forest to 155.2 t/ha in Littoral Swamp Forest

32. SNC- India Work in progress on approach followed for estimation of forest carbon stocks Biomass Carbon +Soil Organic Carbon Potentially a suitable methodology for monitoring and assessment of forest carbon stocks under REDD+

33. For any query contact: jkishwan@nic.in Thanks

34. 16 Forest Types of India (Champion and Seth)

35. Forest Cover Map 10-40% 40-70% >70%

36. India’s Forest Cover (Million Ha)

37. Nation –Wide Vector Coverage of Polygons (of extent 2.5’ x 2.5’) • Total number of polygons – 171,028 • Attribute data has been linked to the polygons

38. SOC Estimation (ICFRE/IIRS Approach) • Basic facts and criteria for SNC approach: • Forest Groups/major types : 16 • Sub-groups : 46 • Sub-group types : 221 • No of replications : 3 • Total sample numbers : 660 • Depth of sampling : 0-30 cm • Standard & uniform sampling and estimation procedure • Area coverage of each major forest types with reasonable accuracy and consistency with recent estimates, if any • Aggregation and up scaling to higher levels • Estimation of variability and uncertainty

39. Positive Incentive Carbon Saved=Carbon Added Same incentive for 1unit of carbon saved(RD) 1 unit of carbon added(CN, SMF, A&R)

40. Methodology: Policy Elements (India) National Level Accounting Mechanism Baseline Year/Starting Date: Flexibility (say 1990) Reference Emissions Level Assessment of Forest Carbon Stocks Biomass Carbon Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) Assessment at regular intervals (5 year National Level Forest Carbon Accounts) Supports development of a common methodology for all policy approaches, based on remote sensing and minimum ground verification to achieve defined confidence level

41. Indian Case: Montreal to Bali And Beyond

42. Indian Viewpoint on REDD Indian viewpoint in consonance with REDD principle REDD being misinterpreted to constrict its applicability Always keen on inclusion of other approaches for reducing emissions successfully adopted by many countries

43. Acceptance of India’s Position India’s breakthrough in second UNFCCC workshop at Cairns in Australia: 7-9 March 2007 Put forth policy approach and scheme of incentives for rewarding nations for conserving and increasing forest carbon stocks India before Cairns practically had no allies to support incentives for forest conservation Countries post-Cairns started speaking of incentives to benefit more countries including nations with strong conservation background (China, Congo Basin Countries, Cameroon, PNG, Bolivia, Mexico, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan)

44. Sustainable Management of Forest • Improvement in existing cover • Increase in forest/tree cover (harvest< increment) = net addition • Net GHG removals estimation with reference to starting date (baseline) SMF means state of increment in forest carbon stocks

45. Parties Submissions on REDD(21March 2008) FCCC/SBSTA/2008/MISC.4 and Add.1–3 Most submissions advocate Use of IPCC GPG (LULUCF) 2003 Remote Sensing (RS) based assessment and monitoring Supported by robust sampling and ground truthing Need for continuous data collection Sustainable management of forests and forest conservation Need to define deforestation and degradation Which policy issues?

46. Status of Issues

47. Other Policy issues • Support Market based mechanism (Costa Rica) • Cap and trade market mechanism (Congo basin countries) • Satellite based continuous data collection (Japan) • Reference level based on historical changes in forest resources (Japan) • Nested baseline specific to different regions in a country (Nepal) • Incentive for C stocking and sequestration (Nepal) • Also address degradation of C stock within forest (Switzerland)

48. IPCC 4th Assessment Report Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2 equivalent Energy Supply 25.9% Industry 19.4% Forestry 17.4% Agriculture 13.5 Residential and 7.9% Commercial building Waste and Wastewater 2.8%

49. The Agenda of REDD • Agenda Item on “Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: Approaches to stimulate action” first presented in COP 11 Montreal (2005) in response to request of Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica • COP11 invited parties and accredited observers to submit views on related issues and also to organize a workshop

50. Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: Approaches to stimulate action UNFCCC sponsored Workshops: Rome: 30 Aug-1 Sept 2006, Cairns: 7-9 March 2007, Tokyo: 25-27 June 2008 Followed by number of UN expert meetings and consultations