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Globala utmaningar - lokala lösningar

Globala utmaningar - lokala lösningar. Johan Kuylenstierna Executive Director, Stockholm Environment Institute @JKuylenstierna. ”Sverige saknar strategi för trygg livsmedelsförsörjning” DN Debatt, 31 december 2012. Stabila priser?. Phosphorus Price Soared in 2007-2008.

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Globala utmaningar - lokala lösningar

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  1. Globala utmaningar - lokala lösningar Johan Kuylenstierna Executive Director, Stockholm Environment Institute @JKuylenstierna

  2. ”Sverige saknar strategi för trygg livsmedelsförsörjning” DN Debatt, 31 december 2012

  3. Stabila priser?

  4. Phosphorus Price Soared in 2007-2008 World Bank Commodity Price Data (2010)

  5. Population and resources "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man".”

  6. Urbanization & megacities 1950 Källa: U.N. Population Division

  7. Urbanization & megacities 2015 Källa: U.N. Population Division

  8. IPCC 5th Assessment Report

  9. Utsläpp, GHG, Sektorer

  10. Billion tonnes / Billion USD currentprices CO2 GDP

  11. Växthusgaser, Sverige

  12. Källa: Naturvårdsverket I DN, 2015.04.20

  13. Tipping Points Related to 2°C-Guardrail Schellnhuber et al., under review.

  14. “Innovating for Sustainable Growth: a Bioeconomy for Europe” 13 February 2012

  15. Land for agriculture Source: FAO/SOLAW

  16. Produktion, konsumtion, lager

  17. Trend, fertilizers (1961-2001) China India Africa Source: FAO/SOLAW

  18. Trend - konstgödsel FAO, 2015

  19. Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report Commissioned by 7 countries: Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Norway, Sweden, South Korea, United Kingdom Led by a Global Commission: 24 former heads of state, CEOs and heads of international institutions. Chaired by Felipe Calderon, former President of Mexico Overseen by an Economic Advisory Panel of14 world leading economists, chaired by Professor Lord Nicholas Stern Delivered by 8 research institutes:

  20. Atlanta and Barcelona: Similar GDP, different CO2 ATLANTA BARCELONA Atlanta’s built-up area Barcelona’s built-up area Population: 5.33 million Urban area: 162 km2 Carbon emissions: 0.7 tonnes CO2/ha/an (public+ private transport) Population: 5.25 million Urban area: 4,280 km2 Carbon emissions: 7.5 tonnes CO2/ha/an (public+ private transport)

  21. Price on solar PV falling quickly USD/MWh Solar PV, historical Current fossil fuel range, indicative Best utility-scale project, 2014 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Sources: Citi Research 2012; IEA World Energy Outlook 2013; G. F Nemet, “Beyond the learning curve”, Energy Policy 34, 3218-3232 (2006)

  22. Southeast Asia, Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants

  23. Southeast Asia, Long Term Change in Water Stress and Power Plants (2025, IPCC Scenario A1B)

  24. China’s Loess Plateau shows how an agricultural landscape approach can deliver economic and climate benefits 1990 2012 Source: World Bank project completion evaluations of the Loess Plateau Watershed Habilitation Projects I and II, 1999 and 2005.

  25. Slutsatser – för diskussion • Agendan breddas - komplexiteten ökar • Tycket på grundläggande resurser ökar • Snabba förändringar i omvärlden – begränsad förståelse • Bioresurser allt viktigare – nya områden • Marknad, priser, konkurrens – svårt…. • En samlad politik – omvärld och prioriteringar • Stark rådgivningskompetens viktigare än någonsin – fokus på möjligheter, ”Vinn-vinn för lantbruket och miljön”!

  26. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr (1885 - 1962) Thank you! Johan Kuylenstierna Johan.kuylenstiernaSE@sei-international.org Twitter: @JKuylenstierna www.sei-international.org http://newclimateeconomy.report/

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