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Forecasting SEN Participation in Post-16 Provision in London

Forecasting SEN Participation in Post-16 Provision in London. Data Advisory Group. Project Context. Local Authorities have a responsibility to ensure suitable education & training to meet the needs of 16-25 year olds with Learning Difficulties and/or Disabilities

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Forecasting SEN Participation in Post-16 Provision in London

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  1. Forecasting SEN Participation in Post-16 Provision in London Data Advisory Group

  2. Project Context • Local Authorities have a responsibility to ensure suitable education & training to meet the needs of 16-25 year olds with Learning Difficulties and/or Disabilities • To date there has been no systematic method of predicting levels of demand which means planning for this group is challenging

  3. Modelling • Using “PLASC” data across multiple years as primary source • Linked to attainment where available • Focussing only on SEN stages where Primary Need is returned: School Action Plus and Statemented for Post-16 Projections • Using historical data to identify how volumes of SEN learners are changing over time • Identifying whether there are specific trends for particular Primary Needs

  4. Forecasting & Visualisations • Develop an interactive forecast model which allows users to drill through London level data to individual LAs • Potentially allow the user to adjust certain variables • Output a series of graphical analyses and overall “dashboard” reports, including visualisations. For example:

  5. Variables & Feedback • Are you more interested in LLDD resident in your LA or LLDD in your schools? • What are they key questions on LLDD you have? • How many there are post-16 now? • How many there will be in the future? • What their type of needs are? • Would you envisage any problems with either Census data before a certain time in your LA or with focussing on School Action Plus and Statemented Learners? • What variables should be used in modelling future demand? • Should other data sources be included (eg: ILR, Connexions) to help understand supply? • What time horizon would be most appropriate?

  6. Further Questions • YPES • Glyn Parry – glyn.parry@londoncouncils.gov.uk • Mime Consulting: • Steve Preston – steve.preston@mimeconsulting.co.uk • Phil Rossiter – phil.rossiter@mimeconsulting.co.uk

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