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Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia

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Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia

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  1. Estimating Smarter...Not HarderUsing Construction Records to Improve the Accuracy, Precision, & Certainty of Estimating, Bid Analysis, & Post-Construction AnalysisJeff Hisem Administrator Joseph Anthony, P.E. Construction Cost Estimator Ohio Department of Transportation, Office of EstimatingTransportation Estimators Association Annual Conference, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, October 2010

  2. Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia Q. What is Unique about Ohio’s State Flag? A. It’s the Only State Flag That’s Not Rectangular

  3. Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia Q. Ohio is Home to How Many U.S. Presidents? A. Seven Q. Name Them A. Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, James A. Garfield, Benjamin Harrison, William McKinley, William H. Taft, and Warren G. Harding

  4. Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia Q. Which Ohio College is One of Only Eight in The Country to Sport a Female Mascot? • The University of Akron’s Zippy the Kangaroo (Zippy has a Pouch)

  5. Survey • How many people in this room collect and use bid histories? • How many people in this room collect and use construction data for cost-based estimating? • Why not?

  6. Overview • Engineer’s Estimate

  7. “Good” Estimating Two Measures of a “Good” Estimate

  8. Estimating Accuracy How Close to a “Fair and Reasonable” Value

  9. Estimating Precision Estimating in a Consistent Manner

  10. Accuracy & Precision • Estimating in a “Fair & Reasonable” Manner Consistently

  11. Cost-Based Estimating Cost-Based Estimate Prepared With Generic Data … (Average Accuracy & Reasonable Precision)

  12. Cost-Based Estimating Cost-Based Estimate Prepared With DOT Specific Construction Data… (Good Accuracy, Good Precision)

  13. Improving Cost-Based Estimating • Collect Detailed Construction Records • Production Rates • Crew Counts • Equipment Counts • Create a Construction Database Much Like a Bid History Database to Easily Retrieve This Information

  14. Improving Cost-Based Estimating • DOT Specific Construction Data • Fair & Reasonable Cost-Based Estimating • Makes Cost-Based Estimating Possible For More Items • Enhance Items That Already Use Cost-Based Estimating • Increases DOT Certainty

  15. ODOT’s Challenges • ODOT’s Current Software (CMS) Does Not Make Construction Data Readily Available • Read Through Inspector’s Daily Reports • Quality of Reports Varies from Inspector to Inspector • CMS Software is Being Retired • Switching to SiteManager

  16. Cost-Based Estimating ExampleUsing Authoritative Reference as Basis • Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing • Minor Urban Arterial • 13,797 Vehicles / Day • Production Rate • 352 CY / 8 Hour Day • Crew • 1 Foreman • 7 Laborers • 3 Equipment Operators • Equipment • 1 Paver • 1 Steel Roller • 1 Pneumatic Roller • Total Estimated Cost = $143 / CY

  17. Cost-Based Estimating ExampleUsing State Developed Estimating Data • Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing • Minor Urban Arterial • 13,797 Vehicles / Day • Production Rate • 200 CY / 8 Hour Day • Crew • 1 Foreman • 4 Laborers • 3 Equipment Operators • Equipment • 1 Paver • 1 Steel Roller • 1 Pneumatic Roller • Total Estimated Cost = $149 / CY

  18. Cost-Based Estimating ExampleUsing DOT Construction Data as Basis • Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing • Minor Urban Arterial • 13,797 Vehicles / Day • Production Rate • 504 CY / 8 Hour Day • Crew • 1 Foreman • 4 Laborers • 1 Equipment Operators • Equipment • 1 Paver • 1 Steel Roller • 1 Pneumatic Roller • Total Estimated Cost = $120 / CY

  19. Cost-Based Estimating ExampleSummary of Methods

  20. The Next Step • Bid Analysis

  21. Improving Bid Analysis • DOT Specific Construction Data • Increased Certainty Levels • Single Bidder Analysis • Increased Control of Contractor Profit

  22. Bid AnalysisExample • Two-Lane Resurfacing • Single Bidder • Engineer’s Estimate: $1.6M • Bid: $2.0M • Difference 25% • Contractor Sends Letter Stating They are Over Estimate Because of Low Production

  23. The Next Step • Post-Construction Analysis

  24. ImprovingPost-Construction Analysis • DOT Specific Construction Data • Analyze Construction Activities • Production Rates • Labor Hours • Equipment • Develop Cost-Based Estimating Worksheet Based on Actual DOT Specific Data • Change Order Analysis • Profit Margin Analysis

  25. Change Order Analysis • District Requests cost evaluation of change order proposal • Contractor Claims Low Production Rate • Want to Verify Production Rate Based on Actual Construction Data • Collection of Post-Construction Data and Creation of Database Would Facilitate Analysis

  26. Profit Margin Analysis • Profit Margin Analysis Can Only Be Performed if You Use Accurate and Precise Cost-Based Estimating Techniques • Perform Profit Margin Analysis After a Project Has Been Constructed

  27. Profit Margins Analysis Material Cost (Known) + Labor Cost (Known) + Equipment Cost (Known) + Profit & Overhead (Unknown)* Cost Based Estimate (Known) *1 Equation, 1 Unknown, Can Solve For Unknown

  28. Conclusions DOT Specific Construction Data Improves Accuracy, Precision, and Certainty of all aspects of the estimating process from the development of the Engineer’s Estimate to Bid Analysis and beyond.

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