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Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan

Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan. Pei-Fen Lee. North. South. North. South. Roads. 36000 Km 2 68% vegetated cover. Elevation vs. Latitude. Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients.

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Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan

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  1. Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health)in Taiwan Pei-Fen Lee

  2. North South North South Roads 36000 Km2 68% vegetated cover

  3. Elevation vs. Latitude • Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients

  4. Long-term Prediction and Short-term Monitoring • Long-term • Species distribution database • Environmental database • Species distribution models • Future projection from IPCC data • Change in species distribution • Short-term • Alpine bird distribution (Yushan National Park)

  5. Finch-billed Bulbul(白環鸚嘴鵯) Species distribution data

  6. Species Distribution Models • Logistic regression • Discriminant function analysis • Artificial neural network (ANN) • Cummulative distribution function • Genetic algorithm(GARP) • MaxEnt

  7. From Occurrence to Probability White-eared Sibia（白耳畫眉）

  8. Presence Maps Bufomelanosticus（黑眶蟾蜍） Microhylainomata（史丹吉氏小雨蛙）

  9. Climate Change Scenario • RSM2 for 2100 (15 x 15 Km grid) • CO2 concentration expected to be doubled • IPCC data (1 x 1 Km grid) • Species • Breeding birds (117 species, 75%) • Amphibians (24 species, 73%) • Freshwater fishes (25 species, 42%)

  10. Climate Change Scenario Temperature:RSM2 Precipitation:RSM2

  11. IPCC data Annual mean temperature (˚C)

  12. Annual Total Precipitation (mm)

  13. Fairy Pitta (Pitta nympha) Low-elevation forest speciesStatus: Vulnerable < 10,000 worldwide

  14. Breeding (Apr. to Sep.) Wintering Source: BirdLife International

  15. Fairy Pitta: mean temperature Mean: 22.3°C Range: 16~26°C n=514 20-25°C98%

  16. Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta CCS - B2 2020 2050 2100 20-25°C Suitable

  17. Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta CMA - A2 2020 2050 2100 20-25°C

  18. 2020 Current 2100 2050 Taiwan Yuhina:change in distributionduetoclimatechange • Reduced suitable habitat • Moving toward higher elevation • Dramaticchangebetween2050and2100 Suitable

  19. Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina Endemic Birds Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei

  20. Increasing-distribution:Taiwan Hwamei Decreasing-distribution:Taiwan Yuhina 2 species 15 species

  21. Breeding Birds: change in species richness Current Under RSM2 In 2100

  22. Breeding birds: change in species richness Decrease in low-elevation & mid-elevation Increase in high-elevation

  23. Amphibians: change in species richness Current RSM2

  24. Amphibians: change in species richness • Due to low dispersal ability, most frog species show local contraction in distribution • Fragmentation

  25. Freshwater Fish: change in richness RSM2 Current

  26. Freshwater FishNegative impact: Low-mid elevationPositive impact: High elevation

  27. Monitoring from 1922 to 2011 3100-3700 m in elevation in Yushan National Park

  28. Breeding Bird Monitoring 1992, 2006 & 2009-2011

  29. Vegetation types

  30. Population density (#/ha): 1992, 2006 and 2009 High-elevation species Mid-elevation species

  31. Population Trend • Density • Decreasing: 5 high-elevation species • Uncertain: 5 • Increasing: 3 mid-elevation species Streak-throated Fulvetta Wren Formosan Firecrest

  32. Upper distribution limit (m)

  33. Changes between 1992 and 2009

  34. Community pattern • Biodiversity increase in high elevation

  35. Temperature Change Summer Winter

  36. Decrease in snow days • 1992– 40 days • 2006– 11 days

  37. Dongsha Atoll National Park South China Sea

  38. Climate Change Impacts • Underclimatechange,many species are expected to suffer a reduction in habitable area • Because smaller areas support smaller populations, species extinction risk is expected to increase

  39. Climate Change Impacts • Short-termchangeobservedinYushanNational Park issimilartothosepredictedinlong-termdistributiontrend • Protected areas may turn out to be in the wrong place in the shifting template of temperature and moisture

  40. Climate Change Impacts • Ecological disturbance in human dominated areas • Reduced species richness • More pests and unwanted grass species • Potential public health problem • E.g., dengue fever

  41. Dengue Trend in Southern Taiwan 2002

  42. Dengue and Precipitation 2002/6/1

  43. Dengue case distribution Only concentrated in certain districts

  44. Dengue and Urban Development • Older community • Rural region • City and county junction • Low biodiversity and potentially less managed areas

  45. Bio-indicators for Climate Change • Different species groups • Bird, amphibian, fish, barnacle • Different ecosystems (spatial) • Urban, coastal, high mountain • Different temporal scales • Month, season, year, decade, …

  46. Barnacle distribution 21 species

  47. nMDS plot

  48. Barnacle distribution Species occurrence Abundance

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