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Sea Level Rise: Infrastructure Analysis Tools and Impact Assessment

Sea Level Rise: Infrastructure Analysis Tools and Impact Assessment. David Judi, Los Alamos National Laboratory Workshop on Sea Level Rise: Science, Prediction, and Stakeholder Planning May 17-18, 2010 San Diego, CA. Energy & Infrastructure Analysis.

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Sea Level Rise: Infrastructure Analysis Tools and Impact Assessment

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  1. Sea Level Rise: Infrastructure Analysis Tools and Impact Assessment David Judi, Los Alamos National Laboratory Workshop on Sea Level Rise: Science, Prediction, and Stakeholder Planning May 17-18, 2010 San Diego, CA

  2. Energy & Infrastructure Analysis • Infrastructure Interdependency Modeling and Simulation • Examines how infrastructure systems interact with one another and how disruptions in one infrastructure can propagate among infrastructures • Natural and terroristic events • Tools developed for varying levels of fidelity

  3. Multi-Hazard Infrastructure Impact Assessment (MHIIA) • Flood Hazard Models • One-dimensional models • Two-dimensional models • Cellular Automata (CA) • Step up from “Naïve” • Existing inundation maps • E.g., FEMA, NOAA/NWS Hazard Events/Modeling • IND • Earthquake • Flood • Chem/Bio • Etc.

  4. Multi-Hazard Infrastructure Impact Assessment (MHIIA) Secondary Effects (Infrastructure Models) Direct Effects (Fragility) Hazard Events/Modeling Extraction of assets from many sectors and mapping of damage probability very quick • Electric power • Water • Economy • Telecomm • Public health • Etc. • IND • Earthquake • Flood • Chem/Bio • Etc. • Infrastructure databases • Fragility curves

  5. Modeling Simulating Analyzing Multiple Interdependent Infrastructures Infrastructure Secondary Impact Analysis Interdependency Environment for Infrastructure Simulation Systems (IEISS)- A Flexible & Extendible Software Frameworkdesigned for: • Objective – identify and understand interdependencies • Importance – study complex, emergent, cascading behaviors • Value – understanding system behavior; capturing cascading effects; analyzing “what-if” scenarios

  6. Case Study: Bay Area Sea Level Rise • Inundation Event • USGS inundation map (Knowles 2008, used in Heberger et al. 2009) • Sea level rise at 0, 50, and 100 centimeters using MSL and 100-yr event • Infrastructure Impact Assessment • Infrastructure Identification • MHIIA (Electric power, hospitals, wastewater facilities) • Cascading Impact • IEISS (Electric power only) • Questions: • How many substations are inundated and what are the impacts (e.g., outage area and population)? • How many hospitals and wastewater facilities are inundated and what are their capacities?

  7. Case Study: Electric Power Infrastructure Impacts Mean Sea Level • Current condition 100-yr Flood Event • 69 Substations inundated • Concentration along SW side of bay

  8. Case Study: Electric Power Infrastructure Impacts Mean Sea Level • 8 substations 100-yr Flood Event • 95 substations inundated (26 additional) • Concentration remains along SW side of bay • Some along east side

  9. Case Study: Electric Power Infrastructure Impacts Mean Sea Level • 20 substations • Mostly along SW side of bay (dense population) 100-yr Flood Event • 128 substations inundated (59 additional compare to no SLR) • Concentration remains along SW side of bay

  10. Case Study: Electric Power Infrastructure Impacts

  11. Case Study: Wastewater and Hospital Impacts Mean Sea Level • Current condition 100-yr Flood Event • 1 hospital • 10 wastewater facilities

  12. Case Study: Wastewater and Hospital Impacts Mean Sea Level • No hospitals • 1 wastewater facility 100-yr Flood Event • 1 hospital (no change) • 14 wastewater facilities (4 additional)

  13. Case Study: Wastewater and Hospital Impacts Mean Sea Level • No hospitals • 2 wastewater facilities 100-yr Flood Event • 1 hospital (no change) • 19 wastewater facilities (9 more than no SLR)

  14. Case Study: Wastewater and Hospital Impacts

  15. Conclusions • Inundation related infrastructure impacts from sea level rise alone are minimal • Flood events on top of sea level rise must be considered • Upstream tributary impacts should be investigated • Accountancy of changing morphology due to sea level rise induced erosion • Framework can be used in planning • Many scenarios quickly for many sectors • Local to regional scale

  16. Contact Information David JudiLos Alamos National Laboratorydjudi@lanl.gov Tim McphersonLos Alamos National Laboratorytmac@lanl.gov Jim DoyleLos Alamos National Laboratoryjcd@lanl.gov

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