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Honors Precalculus Do Now:

Honors Precalculus Do Now:. Intro to Statistics An individual (in the US) gets tested for HIV and tests positive. The test is 99% accurate. In other words, there is a false positive rate of 1%. Given that 1 in 300 people in the US population has HIV,

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Honors Precalculus Do Now:

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  1. Honors Precalculus Do Now: Intro to Statistics An individual (in the US) gets tested for HIV and tests positive. The test is 99% accurate. In other words, there is a false positive rate of 1%. Given that 1 in 300 people in the US population has HIV, What is the probability that the individual who tested positive, actually has HIV? TRY IT OUT!

  2. Video on Statistics • TedTalk • Peter Donnelly • http://www.ted.com/talks/peter_donnelly_shows_how_stats_fool_juries.html

  3. Bayesian Statistics THOMAS BAYES: 1701-1761 BAYES THEOREM: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY: BASE RATES!

  4. Example 1: STD’s A MAN TESTS POSITIVE FOR A SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASE. THE TEST IS 98% ACCURATE. IF THE PREVALENCE OF THE DISEASE IN SOCIETY IS 1 IN EVERY 1,000, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE PERSON ACTUALLY HAS THE DISEASE?

  5. Example 2: GINGIVITIS Gingivitis is the most common disease in the US. About 60% of people have gingivitis. The test for gingivitis is also quite accurate. The test for gingivitis is 95% accurate. Given that a person tests positive for gingivitis, what is the probability that they actually have the disease.

  6. EXAMPLE 3: BAGS SCREENED BAGS are screened at the PROVIDENCE airport. 78% of bags that contain a weapon will trigger an alarm. 14% of bags that do not contain a weapon will also trigger the alarm. If 1 out of every 1200 bags contains a weapon than what is the probability that a bag that triggers an alarm actually contains a weapon?

  7. HOMEWORK ON BAYES! • Complete the following homework on Bayesian Probability.

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