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Acknowledgment: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project

Objective and Automated Assessment of Operational Global Forecast Model Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Formation Patrick A. Harr Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA . Acknowledgment: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project. OBJECTIVES.

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Acknowledgment: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project

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  1. Objective and Automated Assessment of Operational Global Forecast Model Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Formation Patrick A. Harr Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA Acknowledgment: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project

  2. OBJECTIVES • Synthesize model representations of 850 hPa vorticity centers • Summarize a large number of parameters associated with each center throughout its life cycle. • Catalog in a dynamic data base to allow • - summaries of current vortices • - summaries of past vortices based on common factors (i.e., season, location, developing, non-developing, etc.) • Identify factors that discriminate between likely model • traits with respect to tropical cyclone formation. • [ Objective, feature based, dynamic]

  3. Forecast Model Analyses and Forecast Fields Tropical Cyclone Vortex Tracking Program(TCVTP) Forecast Data Base Circulations forecast to occur Analyzed Data Base Current tropical circulations Current circulation summaries/ verifications Catalog of False Alarms Final Circulation Catalog summaries/verifications

  4. With respect to the ellipse representation of each tracked vortex, the following parameters are cataloged: 850 z maximum value SLP average, minimum value 500-850 hPa shear10ox10o box excluding the 200-850 hPa shearellipse 1000-200 height thickness 500 hPa vertical motion 700-500 hPa moisture model-derived accumulated precipitation temperature difference between area inside ellipse and outside ellipse at 200 hPa

  5. Summaries at 2003082500 GFS

  6. Summaries at 2003082712 GFS

  7. Summaries at 2003082500 NOGAPS

  8. Summaries at 2003082712 NOGAPS

  9. Summaries at 2003083000 NOGAPS

  10. Aug-Oct Atlantic Numbered Vortices (Erika – Nicholas)

  11. Eastern Atlantic (East of 30oW) Non-developing Vortices – duration > 24 h

  12. Objectively identify and track analyzed and forecast vorticity centers in operational global forecast models Summarize a comprehensive set of physical parameters associated with analyzed and forecast vortices. Catalog parameters in a dynamic data base Provide daily and other summaries of model forecast performance associated with developing and non-developing tropical vortices. Use summaries to discriminate between potentially accurate/inaccurate forecasts of TC formation.

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