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Air Quality Forecasting: Develop, Operate, and Improve Programs

This course provides an introduction and overview of developing, operating, and improving air quality forecasting programs. It covers topics such as data collection, forecast preparation, program revision, and forecast communication. The course is designed for decision makers, meteorologists, and air quality scientists.

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Air Quality Forecasting: Develop, Operate, and Improve Programs

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  1. Section 3Introduction and Overview of Course

  2. Introduction – Forecasting Programs The process of developing, operating, and improving an air quality (AQ) forecasting program Data Collection Develop a Program Operate the Program Need for an AQ Forecast Forecast Preparation Revise the Program Forecast Communication Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  3. Overview of Course Course Content: • Acknowledgments 2. Executive Overview • Introduction and Overview of Course • What Are We Forecasting? • How Are Forecasts Used? • Health Effects • Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution • Pollutant Monitoring • Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends • Air Pollution Meteorology • Case Studies of Episodes • Air Quality Forecasting Tools • Developing a Forecasting Program • Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations • References Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  4. Audience for Course • Decision makers • Overview of air quality forecasting • General steps to develop/improve an air quality forecasting program • Meteorologists and forecasters • Overview of air quality emissions and chemistry • Discussion of how weather affects air quality • Discussion of tools used to forecast air quality • Air quality scientists • Discussion of how weather affects air quality Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  5. Structure of Course –Objectives This course offers the necessary knowledge to develop, implement, and evaluate a forecasting program. • Understand the meteorological processes that affect pollution concentrations • Learn more about meteorological and air quality forecasting products • Learn how to use and evaluate meteorological forecast data (case studies) • Discuss the tools available for air quality forecasting • Discuss how to develop, operate, and maintain a forecasting program Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  6. Structure of Course – Design Goals • Focus. Forecasting air quality—particulate matter (PM), ozone, other pollutants. • Similarity. Air quality is strongly influenced by weather conditions and emissions sources. Weather conditions and emission types are generally similar, but have minor differences among countries. • Practical. Beyond theory, the course contains practical advice and references to examples, tools, and methods. • Gateway. The course workbook is a gateway to additional resources. • Evolve. The course will improve in time through participants’ feedback. Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  7. Introduction(1 of 3) Forecasting Philosophy • Understand how the system operates • Determine how meteorological processes influence air pollution in an area • Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality • Obtain better results by using multiple forecasting tools • No “silver bullet” • Several tools provide a consensus forecast Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  8. Global Synoptic Mesoscale Urban Neighborhood Introduction(2 of 3) Predicting weather (and air quality) requires examining information for several different spatial and time scales. Global Space: 4,000 km – 20,000 km Time: 1 - 2 weeks Synoptic Space: 400 km – 4,000 km Time: 1 day – 1 week Mesoscale Space: 10 km – 400 km Time: 1 hr – 1 day Urban Space: 5 km - 50 km Time: 1 hr - 4 hr Neighborhood Space: 500 m - 5 km Time: 1 min – 1 hr Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  9. Ozone O3 = low Good AQI Clouds= reduced sunlight Slows photochemistry PM Cold Inversion traps wood-burning emissions PM2.5 = High Unhealthy API Introduction(3 of 3) Forecasting Process Predict weather’s effect on emissions and chemistry Convert to Air Index for the public Estimate AQ concentration Predict weather Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  10. Exercise Tell us about your experience and expectations for the course: • Name • Agency or organization • Your position (job title) • Experience in forecasting air quality • Expectations for the course Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  11. Day-by-Day Guide • Day 1 (Monday) - Morning • 1. Acknowledgements • 2. Executive Overview • 3. Introduction and Overview of Course • 4. What are we forecasting • 4. Exercise: Survey of audience • Break (1045-1100) • 5. How are forecasts used? • 6. Health Effects Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  12. Day-by-Day Guide • Day 1 (Monday) - Afternoon • 7. Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution • Exercise: Make ozone in a bottle • Exercise: Unit conversion (ppb to µg/m3) • Break (1530-1545) • 8. Pollutant Monitoring • Exercise – Identify urban/rural sites from time-series plots more • Lunch 1230-1400 Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  13. Day-by-Day Guide • Day 2 (Tuesday) – Morning • 9. Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends • Exercise: Examine time series • Exercise: IER model of ozone smog • 10. Air Pollution Meteorology • Break 1030-1045 • 10. Air Pollution Meteorology (continued) • Lunch 1230-1400 Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  14. Day-by-Day Guide • Day 2 (Tuesday) – Afternoon • Exercise • Interpreting Radiosondes • Mixing height calculator • Using HYSPLIT • Flowchart • Map Discussion • Break (1545-1600) • 11. Case Study Episodes Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  15. Day-by-Day Guide • Day 3 (Wednesday) – Morning • 11. Case Study Episodes (as needed) • 12. Air Quality Forecasting Tools • Break (1045-1100) • 12. Air Quality Forecasting Tools (continued) Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  16. Day-by-Day Guide • Day 4 (Thursday) • 12a. Madrid Forecast Model • Break (1030-1045) • 12a. Madrid Forecast Model • Lunch (1230-1400) • 12b. Background and setup of TAPM • Questions about forecasting tools/methods Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  17. Day-by-Day Guide • Day 5 (Friday) • 13. Developing a Forecasting Program • Break (1030-1045) • Exercise: Forecast verification. • 14. Daily Weather Forecast Operations • Review of TAPM results • Lunch (1230-1400) • Review of TAPM results (continued) • Analysis of participants data • Questions and individual training Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

  18. Summary • Define the audience (decision makers, meteorologists, forecasters, and air quality scientists) • Obtain better results by using multiple forecasting tools • Understand how the system operates • Examine spatial and time scales (global, synoptic, mesoscale, urban, and neighborhood) • Develop a forecasting process • Predict weather and its effect on emissions and chemistry • Estimate concentration and convert to an Air Index Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course

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