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CALI 2011

“ The New L eaders of the Investment W orld : Countries, S ectors and Projections” I st International Meeting of the Pacific Basin Cali, Colombia 5 th October , 2011 DR HENRY LOEWENDAHL fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd. CALI 2011. About the presentation.

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CALI 2011

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  1. “The New Leaders of the Investment World: Countries, Sectors and Projections” Ist International Meeting of the Pacific Basin Cali, Colombia 5th October, 2011 DR HENRY LOEWENDAHL fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd CALI 2011

  2. About the presentation • Focus on Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment (GFDI) • Unique data on GFDI & corporate strategies from fDi Markets

  3. New leaders of the investment worldCOUNTRY TRENDS AND FORECASTS

  4. Global trends GFDI capital investment ($bn) Pacific Rim share of global: 38%-43% (2008-11). Share of GFDI outflows 41% to 49% AsiaPacific share grew 30% to 37% and LAC from 8% to 18% (fastest growth in world) Global PR (out) PR (in) AP LAC Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence. Includes estimates. *Projection for 2011 based on Jan-Sept data

  5. MNE strategy for Pacific RimHow companies segment the market No. FDI projects investing in Pacific Rim by export market served GFDI in Pacific LAC GFDI in Pacific AsiaPac Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd. Includes export markets for all activities (services, manufacturing, raw materials)

  6. LAC country performanceShare of GFDI in LAC (Jan-Sep 2011) Small countries outperforming larger ones. Pacific Rim countries performing strongly Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd.

  7. AsiaPac country performanceShare of GFDI in AsiaPac (Jan-Sep ‘11) Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand best performing Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd.

  8. Where FDI is coming fromSource of GFDI jobs worldwide Europe in crisis. AP+LAC booming. North America flat. Middle East in decline Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd

  9. Why invest in the Pacific Rim?Location determinants for GFDI projects Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd. Includes only GFDI projects in the Pacific Rim

  10. Pacific Rimbest performers GFDI forecasts for 2011 • Rank in growth of GFDI projects • New Zealand • Panama • (Argentina, Brazil) • Mexico • Taiwan • Canada • Indonesia • USA • Singapore • China • Colombia • Hong Kong • Costa Rica • South Korea • Chile • Rank in growth of GFDI new jobs • Nicaragua • Papua New Guinea • Chile • (Argentina) • Indonesia • Taiwan • Panama • South Korea • Mexico • (Brazil) • Colombia • Singapore • Vietnam • New Zealand • El Salvador Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd. Projection for 2011

  11. Investment leaders in 2015Inward & outward GFDI job forecasts Top 5 countries in 2015: Half of inward and outward FDI job creation globally Inward FDI Outward FDI Source: fDi Intelligence FDI Forecasting Model

  12. New leaders of the investment worldSECTOR TRENDS AND FORECASTS

  13. FDI by business activityGFDI jobs worldwide by activity Major growth in manufacturing following the recession. Growth in R&D, front/back office and ICT infrastructure. Huge decline in construction. Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd

  14. FDI by industry sectorGFDI jobs worldwide by top 10 sectors Top 10 sectors account for over 60% of global GFDI job creation Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd

  15. Sub-sector forecasts 2015High growth sub-sectors (#projects) Cloud computing forecast to be fastest growing FDI sub-sector worldwide over next five years. Rapid growth forecast in renewable energy segments Source: fDi Intelligence FDI Forecasting Model

  16. New leaders of the investment worldSUMMARY

  17. Summary – country trends • Financial crisis signalled major change in global FDI • Pacific Rim = over 40% of inward GFDI and 50% of outward • LAC and AsiaPac fastest growing locations for GFDI worldwide • AsiaPac has reached Western Europe levels of outward GFDI • Shift in global value chains to accelerate in next 5 years • 26 of 30 fastest growing FDI locations in 2011 are emerging markets • Top 4 leading locations in 2015 all forecast to be emerging markets • Outward GFDI from China forecast to nearly triple in next 5 years • MNEs see Pacific Rim in terms of AsiaPac, LAC, & North America • Integration across the Pacific Rim driven by GFDI in LAC serving North America and to a lesser extent AsiaPac • The Pacific Rim will become the major destination and source of GFDI in next 5 years

  18. Summary – sector trends & competitiveness • Export orientated activities rebound in 2011 • Fastest FDI growth in manufacturing, R&D, and export services • Strong growth in FDI across many sectors in 2011 • Retail sectors, software, telecom, renewables, minerals, metals, food & drink, industrial machinery, auto components • Fastest growth forecast in emerging technology areas • Cloud computing, renewable energy segments, social media, semiconductors, ITO, KBO, education & training • Pacific Rim countries competitive position • Very strong for market-seeking FDI (national/regional) • Overall attractiveness depends on skills, business climate, clusters and infrastructure more than government incentives • Attractiveness for technology-based FDI requires sustained investment in education and R&D to match developed country levels

  19. “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they would”

  20. CONTACTS • Dr Henry Loewendahl • Senior Advisor, Representing fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd • Managing Director, WAVTEQ Ltd • Co-founder, Loco Software Ltd and ICA Incentives Ltd • E-mail: henry.loewendahl@wavteq.com • Skype/MSN: hloewendahl • Linkedin: Henry Loewendahl • M: +44(0) 792 474 6365 • W: www.fdiintelligence.com • W: www.wavteq.com; www.locosoftware.ie; www.icaincentives.com

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