1 / 31

Mobile positioning as a data source for estimation of travel statistics

Mobile positioning as a data source for estimation of travel statistics. Jaanus Kroon Head, Balance of payments and Economic Statistics Department 4.10.2010 Paris WPTGS; OECD. Outline. Current data sources and main challenges The idea of mobile positioning and the project of Eesti Pank

farren
Télécharger la présentation

Mobile positioning as a data source for estimation of travel statistics

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Mobilepositioningas a datasourceforestimationoftravelstatistics Jaanus Kroon Head, Balanceofpayments and EconomicStatisticsDepartment 4.10.2010 Paris WPTGS; OECD

  2. Outline • Current data sources and main challenges • The idea of mobile positioning and the project of Eesti Pank • Estimation of inbound travellers • Estimation of outbound travellers • Conclusions

  3. Simplified algorithm of travel account estimation in BoP • Debits and credits • Countries Number oftravellers and lenghtofstay x Dailyexpenditures + Prepaidtravelagency and hotelservices + Expendituresofshort-termworkers and students = Travel

  4. Data sourcesbefore 2009 Poor coverage (ShengenTreaty) Cancellingof NSI surveys

  5. Data sourcesafter 2009

  6. Challenge: how to estimate border crossing statistics? • Regular Statistical Surveys of border crossing? • Expensive • Quality issues? (sufficient geography etc.) • Installing car-counters on border-roads? • Only indirect indicator • Needs additional Surveying of the structure of “cars/trucks/travellers” • Deriving border-crossing statistics from mobile-phone roaming/positioning? • The best balance in between merits and costs • Methodology needs regular re-estimations • …

  7. ICT in Travel Studies • ICT infulences travel • Travel influences ICT

  8. The idea of mobile positioning • Mobile positioning -registering signals of cellphone usage and location by mobile phone network antennas • When you travel to a foreign country, your mobile phone keeps working via foreign network: you are roaming. • Registering roming activities could be the data source for estimating numbers of travellersand their lenght of stay • Simplification: customer of a phone operator is a resident of the same country

  9. Co-operation with Tartu University spin-off project • LBS Positum (www.positium.ee) • founded in 2001 in cooperation with geographers, city planners and architects • services: using the idea of mobile positioning and methods for geographical studies and city planning to organize better and safer living, planning the city and sustainable environment • Data source EMT (major of 3 mobile providers in Estonia) • 2 procurement contracts for developing models for: • Inbound travel 2008-2009 • Outbound travel 2009-2010 • Regular monthly cooperation (data license)

  10. Estimation of inbound travellers (1)

  11. Estimation of inbound travellers (2) • # of travellers ~ # of abroad registered roamed cell phones • Lenghtofstay • - Daysbetweenfirst and last phoneoperation • Bordercountries: 2 visits 2 and 3 days • Others: 1 visit 8 days

  12. Estimation of inbound travellers (3) • Nationality according to the country of origin of SIM-card • Differentiation: • Elimination of noise (sea transit, random border swiching) • Transit travel (airport, transit-road corridors) • Permanent (border) workers and students • One day visitors • Tourists • Grossing up / calibration • Penetration model

  13. Estimation of inbound travellers (4) • “Noise” on borders (Certain antennas should be excluded)

  14. Estimation of inbound travellers (5) • Foreign workers • more than 7 visits • more than 30 days

  15. Estimation of inbound travellers (6) • Transit • Mobilepositionsindefinedareaonly • Sea ports • Airports • Certain road corridors: • Ikla-Pärnu-Tallinn • Riga-Pskov

  16. Estimation of inbound travellers (7) • Visitors (up to 24 hr)

  17. Estimation of inbound travellers (8) • Tourists (over 24 h)

  18. Estimationofinboundtravellers (9) • Grossing up sampling and calibration • Bases on real statistical data series available up to 2008 • Calibration according to currently available border-crossing indicators • (Extra-EU statistics, Sea-ports and airport indirect statistics) • Statistical models for each country or country groups, taking into account… • coverage (only 1 network) • mobile phone usage pattern (surveys) • Pre-paid cards & cheap roaming service cards • …

  19. Estimationofinboundtravellers (10) Accommodation statistics

  20. Estimationofinboundtravellers (11)

  21. Estimation of outbound travellers (1) • Lenght of stay and the geography

  22. Estimation of outbound travellers (2) • Determining the number of visits

  23. Estimation of outbound travellers (3) • Number of visits by countries visited

  24. Estimationofoutboundtravellers (5) • Destination and transit country • Analyses of the travel pattern according to the lenght of stay and number of countries visited per day • Cross border worker if • # of trips during 6 month is over 6 • Sum of the lenght of days exceeds 30 days • Analyses of final destinations (over the world travellers)

  25. Estimation of outbound travellers (4) • Number of days by countries visited

  26. Estimationofoutboundtravellers (6) • Elimination of noise • Estonian border masts • Border masts abroad • Seamen • …

  27. Penetration model needs to take into account… Estimationofoutboundtravellers (7) • The market shareof EMT • Otheroperators (2, compensationcofficents) • # ofnon-phoneusersabroad • Workers • EMT detaileduser market research • Datacalibration • Extra EU bordercrossing • Ports and airportstatistics • Accommodationstatisticsby NSI

  28. Estimationofoutboundtravellers (8) • First results (red – travel statistics, blue – model)

  29. Conclusions • … still too early to make  • So far we have… • covered the “hole” in statistics and become the only one institution in Estonia providing border-crossing statistics • been cost effective (data licenses are cheaper than regular border-crossing surveying) • taken advantage of partner scale-effect (one data source, wide range of usage possibilities) • Major questions… • models need to be re-estimated according to changes in economic environment (no real data besides) • developments (competition) on mobile market and ICT • The future of mobile phones vrs Skype?

  30. CHALLENGE FOR STATISTICS! • Mobile positioning would have much wider possibilities to serve statistics as a data source Thank you!

  31. Scientific Articles (not directly about current topic) • Tiru, M., Saluveer E., Ahas, R., Aasa, A. 2009. Web-based monitoring tool for assessing space-time mobility of tourists using mobile positioning data: Positium Barometer. Journal of Urban Technology, 17(1): • Ahas, R. Aasa, A., Roose, A., Mark, Ü., Silm, S. 2008. Evaluating passive mobile positioning data for tourism surveys: An Estonian case study. Tourism Management 29(3): 469–486. • Kuusik, A., Ahas, R., Tiru, M. 2009. Analysing Repeat Visitation on Country Level wirh Passive Mobile Positioning Method: An Estonian Case Study. XVII Scientific Conference on Economic Policy, Estonia 1–3.07.2009 in Tartu and Värska. • Ahas, R., Saluvee, E., Tiru,M. and Silm, S. 2008.Mobile Positioning Based Tourism Monitoring System: Positium Barometer. In: O’Connor, P., Höpken, W. and Gretzel, U. (Eds.), Springer Computer Science: Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism, pp. 475-485. • Ahas, R., Aasa, A., Silm, S., Tiru, M. 2007. Mobile positioning data in tourism studies and monitoring: case study in Tartu, Estonia. In: Sigala, M., Mich, L., Murphy, J. (Eds.), Springer Computer Science: Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism, ISBN: 978-3-211-69564-7, pp. 119-128.

More Related