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Brooklyn College Spring 2003

Brooklyn College Spring 2003. Trapped in the Net Chapters 6 … 10. February 18, 2003 Gene Shagas Student, CIS 763. 6. Jacking into the Market. Financial Trading is a large technical system Quick and irreversible operations Continue to grow and integrate Markets out of control

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Brooklyn College Spring 2003

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  1. Brooklyn CollegeSpring 2003 Trapped in the Net Chapters 6 … 10 February 18, 2003 Gene Shagas Student, CIS 763

  2. 6. Jacking into the Market • Financial Trading is a large technical system • Quick and irreversible operations • Continue to grow and integrate • Markets out of control • Delayed feedback • Loss of communication • Unlimited and uncontrolled access to money • Derivatives markets are more volatile than traditional ones, moving much faster • Use untested mathematical models • Computer models and computerized trading programs had newer been tested in a crunch today’s approaches are ad-hoc. explicitly define root-cause analysis!

  3. 7. Expert Operators and Critical Tasks • Large amount of information lead to computerization • Loosing a large, coherent picture • Maintenance of traditional prerogatives for employees • Putative threat to jobs and skills • Error of interpretation is increased while number of computerized methods increased (pilot errors as examples) • Increased load information from computers • Recognition of Human Factor • Increase workload in a crisis • Understanding of automatism…often difficult because their principle of functioning is different and often unknown • The computer in the loop • Human errors remain • Removes opportunity for humans to learn • Additional redundancy necessary

  4. 8. Smart Weapons, Smart Soldiers • Techno-industrial War • 1914 … 1939: Rapid fire artillery, machine gun, Chemical weapon, tank, military aircraft, submarine • 1939 … 1945: Blitzkrieg, strategic bombing, radar, V-1 and V-2 missiles, jet aircraft, atomic bomb • The Postwar transition • Dominance in Air • Big wars unlikely, nuclear weapon unusable • Computer-related changes: • Embedded means of fire control • Strategic Analysis • Change in warfare increases overall complexity of the military • Intellectual and computer skills can be dominated over physical and emotional

  5. 9. Unfriendly Fire • Reasonable choice of disaster • Libyan airliner: standard actions upon for hostile intercept • USS Stark: attack by Mirage was unexpected • Iran Air Flight 655: wrong identification as F-14 by operators • System failed while equipment worked perfectly • Difficulties of forming an independent interpretation • New technologies lead to situations where people acting as with perfect equipment • Failure lay in the theory of design highly automated systems • Interactions between complex computerized systems and human operators may have high probability of errors

  6. 10. The Logistics of Techno-War • Quality versus Quantity in weapon systems • Civil, Korean, Vietnam War relayed for victory far more on quantity, than quality, Gulf War – new weapon systems. • Shift from mass production and mass attacks to all- volunteer forces equipped with latest technologies • Political protest against high cost [p.171] • Computers and the Transformation of War [p.184] • High-technology weapons and communications • An assemblage of small units, moving quickly • Highly computerized Patriot and Tomahawk missiles • U.S. military as integrated socio-technical system • Future battlefield is being designed as an electronic “battlespace”

  7. End For more information: ggdsh@yahoo.com

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