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ARMENIA: NPD Baseline for rural Water Supply and Sanitation Yerevan, 22 March 2007

ARMENIA: NPD Baseline for rural Water Supply and Sanitation Yerevan, 22 March 2007 Jochem Jantzen Director, TME. CONTENTS Data and data delineation Baseline scenario, preliminary results. DATA AND DATA DELINEATION Data available

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ARMENIA: NPD Baseline for rural Water Supply and Sanitation Yerevan, 22 March 2007

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  1. ARMENIA: NPD Baseline for rural Water Supply and Sanitation Yerevan, 22 March 2007 Jochem Jantzen Director, TME

  2. CONTENTS • Data and data delineation • Baseline scenario, preliminary results

  3. DATA AND DATA DELINEATION • Data available • -Statistical data on population, water supply and sanitation (census) • -Results JICA-questionnaire (416 returned of 565) • -Results questionnaire to water companies (AWSC, Lori WSC, Nor Akunq) • Various water related studies PRSP, WB, OECD, info and interviews with water companies

  4. DATA DELINEATION Population data on all settlements

  5. DATA DELINEATION Water intake

  6. DATA DELINEATION Water distribution

  7. DATA DELINEATION Water sanitation

  8. DATA DELINEATION • Finance • Data collected from water companies on: • Charge levels, total revenues • Loans (KfW) • Central budget financing • Difficult to separate rural from total revenues / expenditures (water cie.)

  9. DATA DELINEATION • Discussion • Feasible Model requires grouping • Technical criteria for grouping (water intake, treatment) • Other criteria (policy related): • - geographical • - institutional • - supply situation (no distribution) • - size

  10. BASELINE SCENARIO: Data delineation water infrastructure • 847 rural settlements are grouped in totally 81 ´average settlements´ • -criteria applied: • water intake, • geography-institutional, • size

  11. BASELINE SCENARIO: Data delineation water infrastructure

  12. BASELINE SCENARIO: Expenditures (mln DRAM/year)

  13. BASELINE SCENARIO: • Financing: revenues • Budget and loans: • Budget 1 163 mln DRAM • Loans 3 663 mln DRAM • Current rural revenues roughly estimated at: • Total 1 015 mln DRAM • AWSC 850 mln DRAM • Nor Akunq 21 mln DRAM • Lori WSC 56 mln DRAM • Rest 90 mln DRAM

  14. BASELINE SCENARIO: • Financing: potential revenues • - Water sold 120 m3/household • Collection rate <> Service level • - Current potential revenues roughly estimated at: • Total 1 551 mln DRAM • AWSC 881 mln DRAM (66%) • Nor Akunq 74 mln DRAM (97%) • Lori WSC 58 mln DRAM (70%) • Rest 538 mln DRAM (30%)

  15. BASELINE SCENARIO: Financing gap (mln DRAM/year)

  16. BASELINE SCENARIO: Affordability potential revenues Optimistic

  17. BASELINE SCENARIO: Affordability potential revenues Pessimistic

  18. BASELINE SCENARIO: • Questions • Affordability now assumed at 3% (for Water Supply in rural areas), should it be for example 4%? • -Sanitation: are the assumptions realistic? • -Are projected revenues realistic?

  19. BASELINE SCENARIO: • Discussion • With projected optimistic economic growth, little problems to be expected for affordability • With less optimistic assumptions, affordability will remain a problem • - Revenues are not enough to cover both O&M and re-investment expenditures (even with increased revenues)

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