Mission Analysis Brief MPAT TE-5

1. Mission Analysis BriefMPAT TE-5 CTF Khokh Chono 05 August 2003

2. Purpose The purpose is to brief the Commander on the results of the staff’s mission analysis, propose a restated mission and Commander’s intent. Obtain Commander’s guidance for COA development.

3. Agenda • CTF Area of Operations (AO) • Threat Situation • Facts / Assumptions / Limitations • Strategic/Operational Centers of Gravity • Tasks (Specified, Implied, Essential) • Force Structure Analysis • Risk Assessment • End states (Operational/Strategic) • Proposed CCTF Restated Mission and Intent Statements • Proposed CCIR • CCTF Feedback / Guidance

4. NOVOSIBIRSK RUSSIA AYLAND CHOYBALSAN ULAANBAATAR MONGOLIA BARUUN URT BUFFER ZONE BELAND BEIJING CHINA CTF OPERATIONAL AREA • Describe CTF Operational area and insert images as appropriate.

5. CTF AREA OF OPERATIONS Ayland Mongolia Beland

6. Republic of Ayland • Area: 195,311 sq. km (75,410 sq. mi) • Terrain: mountainous (plateau in eastern portion) • Climate: extreme cold winters (-30 C). Short, warm summers • Population: 726,000 • Capital and major city: Choybalsan (pop. 125K) • Economic mainstay: agriculture, livestock breeding, mining (copper, molybdenum) • Power: coal • Government: parliamentary democracy • Country formed in 1946, out of post WWII agreements

7. Republic of Beland • Area: 214,322 sq. km (82,750 sq. mi) • Terrain: desert steppe • Climate: extreme cold winters (-30 C). Short, warm summers • Population: 831,000 • Capital and major city: Barun-Urt (pop. 147K) • Economic mainstay: agriculture, livestock breeding, mining • Power: coal • Government: parliamentary democracy • Country formed in 1946, out of post WWII agreements

8. THREAT SITUATION Conventional • Ayland and Beland ground forces continue to exchange fire, citing “provocations” by the other side. • Air and ground forces from both sides aggressively patrol oil reserve area - numerous clashes. Terrorist • Terrorist activities continue in disputed area. Terrorist cells operating out of Dislocated Civilian camps. • Beland blames “rogue” elements for the continued terrorist activities. Environmental • Thousands remain homeless and unprepared for harsh winter. • Multiple diseases present in DC camps. • Due to extreme summer drought, there is very high probability of a “Dzud” starting in November

9. C2 Estimate Ayland Forces. • Ayland forces around the disputed area are garrisoned north of Tamnsagbulag outside of the disputed area, but still within the 30 Km Weapons Exclusion Zone. • Ayland forces conduct daily patrols throughout their side of the buffer zone • Total combat effectiveness estimated at 70% pre-conflict strength (from 10,000 to 7,000). • Losses are primarily in infantry units • Air assets at 80 %. Losses are due to operational reasons rather than combat. • Ayland forces stationed in western area of country are near 100% combat effective.

10. C2 Estimate Beland Forces. • Beland forces around the disputed area are garrisoned in Halha Horoo in the vicinity of Camp Urt, outside of the buffer area. • Beland forces conduct daily patrols throughout their side of the buffer zone • Total combat effectiveness estimated at 85% pre-conflict strength (from 20,000 to 17,000). • Losses are primarily in infantry units • Air assets at 80 %. Losses are due to operational reasons rather than combat. • Beland has suffered minor equipment losses • Beland forces stationed in western area of country are near 100% combat effective

11. C2 Estimate Terrorists. • TPFDL activity reported in Camp Asar in Ayland, and Camps Dalai, Urt and Tuul in Beland • TIP/TPFDL Leaders: • Milkitary Commander – Trebor Relsneh • Political officer – Norahs Elahcm • LNO to TIP – Etep Ecilefed • Terrorist cells are most likely supported by black market arms suppliers and unknown elements of Beland forces

12. C2 Estimate Local Population. • Both Ayland and Beland population suffer low morale based on environmental conditions, infrastructure damage, terrorist activity, banditry, medical conditions, and a lack of basic needs. • Population of Tamsagbulag is 60% ethnic Aylander, 40% ethnic Belander. • Ethnic Belanders in Tamsagbulag resent the arbitrary nature of the new border and Ayland rule

13. HIGHER’S MISSION GENERAL STAFF ARMED FORCES MONGOLIA (GSAFM) ASSUMES LEAD NATION RESPONSIBILITIES IN ESTABLISHING A COALITION TASK FORCE FOR THE PURPOSE OF CONDUCTING PEACE OPERATIONS IN THE DESIGNATED AREA OF OPERATIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ULAANBAATAR AGREEMENT AND UNSC RESOLUTION 1527 IN ORDER TO RESTORE PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE REGION.

14. Commander’s Intent (1) PURPOSE. ESTABLISH PEACE AND SECURITY IN AO TO ENABLE THE DELIVERY OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE BY UN, IO, AND NGO COMMUNITY. (2) METHOD. DIRECT, WHEN APPROPRIATE, THE COMMANDER CTF KHOKH CHONO TO CONDUCT PEACE KEEPING OPERATIONS IN ORDER TO SET THE CONDITIONS THAT SUPPORT THE RESTORATION OF PEACE AND STABILITY IN AYLAND AND BELAND. MAINTAIN SEPARATION OF FORCES, ESTABLISH A BUFFER ZONE ON THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, COMBAT TERRORISM AND ASSIST UN HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE OPERATIONS TO SUPPORT RAPID RESTORATION OF LAW AND ORDER AND HELP SET CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT BETWEEN AYLAND AND BELAND. YOU ARE AUTHORIZED TO USE ALL NECESSARY MEANS TO ACCOMPLISH YOUR MISSION. (3) ENDSTATE. CTF KHOKH CHONO RESTORES SECURE AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT, ALLEVIATES IMMEDIATE DISASTER RELATED HEALTH ISSUES, SUBSTANTIALLY RESTORES INFRASTRUCTURE CRITICAL TO HA EFFORTS, BORDER REGIME AND BUFFER ZONE ARE OPERATIONAL, EFFECTIVE CT MEASURES ARE IN PLACE, CTF TASKS EFFECTIVELY TRANSITIONED TO AYLAND AND BELAND AUTHORITIES OR A FOLLOW-ON UN PKF. CTF REDEPLOYED.

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21. FACTS • Majority of Forces available for 6 months • Over-flight rights granted for Russia and China • Both parties have agreed to a UN cease-fire and buffer-zone • UN Mandate and UB Agreement in place • Terrorists continue hostile action in the disputed area and in some of the Dislocated Civilian (DC) camps • Infrastructure damage • Railroads, roads, power, landmines, water and mines, hospitals • TCC nations responsible for 5 days of sustainment

22. FACTS • Rogue elements not abiding to agreements • Lead Nation is Mongolia • Epidemics in several DC camps • 14 total DC camps (10 in Ayland and 4 in Beland) - 125,000 (34,000 refugees) • Humanitarian Coordinator “leading” humanitarian effort from the Humanitarian Operations Center (HOC) including setting relief priorities • Donor pallets: 3,300 pallets (C-130)

23. FACTS • Epidemics (pulmonary and bronchial infections, Hep A and B, trachoma, SARS, and brucellosis) in several DC camps • Bubonic plague transmitted via marmots in AUG-OCT • Preparations for harsh winters in DC camps is inadequate • USMC/USN assets available thru C+30 • PACOM Contingency Communications Package (CCP) is available for duration of CTF mission • Rapid deployment of CTF forces NLT 15 1200 NOV 2003 • Operational Control/Tactical Control (OPCON/TACON) of forces is in accordance with MOUs between participating nations

24. ASSUMPTIONS • Due to extreme summer draught, there is very high probability of a “Dzud” starting in October • Terrorists (TPFDL) will attempt to disrupt MNF & UN / IO / NGO efforts • Ayland and Beland continue to abide by Agreement • Beland and Ayland will provide law & order in Non-occupied zone (less camps) • Primary APOD can support air operations • Surface to air threat • TPFDL is well armed and organized, and receives support from significant elements of the population within the disputed area

25. ASSUMPTIONS • Ayland/Beland Support as Host Nation extremely limited • Permissions for overland transit granted by Russia/China • IO/NGO will distribute HA to DC camps • Strategic lift available and may move IO/NGO HA material • APODs/SPODs/SLOC will remain open • SPOD/APOD: Vlad (Rus)/ULN (Mon), Choybalsan (Ay), Sainshand NE (Be) • APODs will not have sufficient POL and de-icing equipment • Certified Airlift/Airdrop will be required and possible

26. LIMITATIONS • Constraints: required actions (must do) • Must abide by mandate, Intl Law & ROE • Deploy by 15 Nov • Coalition interoperability (Incl Comms & Intel) • Establish a BZ with dimensions IAW the UB Agreement • Prepare for extreme cold weather operations • Restraints: prohibited actions (must not do) • Use U.S. Navy & Marine forces for a period greater than 30 days

27. CENTERS OF GRAVITYAND DECISIVE POINTS • Threat COGs / DPs: • Strategic • Perceived legitimacy of TPFDL by supporters of TIP & by supporters outside the AO • Operational • Command and control network and infrastructure • Tactical • Local recruitment & support in DC Camps for TPFDL • Rogue elements of Ayland & Beland • Decisive Points • Access to DC camps • Base of Operations • Capability to spread the TPFDL message

28. CENTERS OF GRAVITYAND DECISIVE POINTS • Friendly COGs / DPs: • Strategic • Coalition legitimacy & MNF political will • Public support for return of peace & stability • Operational • Coalition cohesiveness & effectiveness • Tactical • Local/Regional support for MNF • Ability to conduct MNF operations under Dzud conditions • Decisive Points • C2 systems • Lines of Communication (Incl Support lines) • Ability to enforce the BZ

29. SPECIFIED TASKS • Deploy forces rapidly into the AO, quickly establishing command, control and communications capabilities to facilitate timely arrival of MNF forces and logistical support. • Establish strong coordination links with SRSG Mr. Bataar Dorj. • Secure the borders and maintain buffer zone. • Maintain separation of Ayland and Beland armed forces. • Create conditions in Ayland to support restoration of law and order. • Be prepared to temporarily assure execution of security functions (includes detaining, transporting and turning over of lawbreakers to proper authorities). • Help develop and assist with the CT efforts • Once Ayland authorities fully assume active role, continue to support CT efforts by providing information.

30. SPECIFIED TASKS • In conjunction with governments of Ayland & Beland, develop a CT plan to eliminate the terrorist threat in Ayland & Beland, in particular in the disputed area & DC camps • Facilitate HA/DR operations. • Plan for extreme cold weather operations and effect on CTF forces. Also plan for effects this weather will have on Dislocated Civilians. • Develop and implement Information Operations campaign in support of CTF under the UN mandate. • Execute mission handoff to appropriate authorities. • Redeploy forces.

31. IMPLIED TASKS • Establish and secure APOD • BPT provide support to civilian agencies • Conduct Foreign Internal Defense (FID) with Ayland & Beland CT forces

32. ESSENTIAL TASKS • Secure the borders and maintain buffer zone • Facilitate HA/DR operations • Execute mission handoff to appropriate authorities

33. INITIAL FORCESTRUCTURE ANALYSIS • Engineers • Extreme cold weather capable aircraft • SOF air assets (insertion/extraction/logistic support) • CT capable SOF force (capable of recovery operations) • Vehicles • Tracked vehicles/chained tire vehicles, snow removal equipment • General transportation • Tactical PSYOP forces • Intelligence assets: • UAV • Linguists, translators, and interpreters

34. RISK ASSESSMENT • Mission Accomplishment Risks / Mitigation: • HA / DR efforts inadequate - • Provide secure environment; respond to RFAs • Mission essential failures due to Extreme Cold Weather • Identify mission essential equipment; prioritize winterization preparations; develop backup / recovery plans • Preposition supplies • Disease • Preventative & Operational Medical measures • Terrorist • CT operations • High force-protection procedures • IO Campaign • Mines - • Awareness training; de-mining operations

35. END STATE • Strategic End State conditions • Peace & security established in Ayland & Beland • Operational (military) End State conditions • Secure & stable environment • Alleviate immediate disaster related health issues • Substantially restore infrastructure critical to HA efforts • Border regime & BZ are operational & effective • Effective CT measures in place • Transition tasks to Ayland, Beland &/or PKF

36. PROPOSED CTF RESTATED MISSION • No later than 15 November, CTF KHOKH CHONO will secure the borders and maintain buffer zone, facilitate HA/DR operations in order to set the conditions to facilitate peace & security in Ayeland & Beland. • On order, execute mission handoff to appropriate authorities

37. PROPOSED COMMANDER’S INTENT • Purpose: • Set the conditions to facilitate peace & security in Ayland & Beland • Method: • Secure the borders and maintain buffer zone • Facilitate HA/DR operations • End state: • Secure a stable environment, alleviate immediate human suffering, mitigate the effects of the Dzud, substantially restore infrastructure critical to HA efforts, BZ is operational & effective, effective CT measure in place, MNF transitions to appropriate authorities & MNF redeployed

38. COMMAND & CONTROL PROPOSED INITIAL CCIRs • PIR • Accurate predictions of Dzud conditions or extreme weather in AO • Locations, intentions & capabilities of TPFDL • Non-compliance by parties to UB Agreement • FFIR • Accurate assessment of HA/DR requirements • Operational capabilities of all MNF units • Status of LLOCs into/out of AO • UN/NGO/IO capabilities to support HA/DR • EEFI • Counter-terrorism capabilities and disposition • MNF scheme of maneuver & timing • Communication networks • QRF disposition

39. COMMANDER’S GUIDANCE

40. Under a CTF HQ: Main Effort: Security & HA/DR in zone Establish TF-A (in Ayland) & TF-B (in Beland) Examine organizing subordinate TF components by either function or mission; recommend procedures for coordination of air assets Supporting Effort: Establish TF-CT (MAF) Mission: CT in AO CPG-1 Guidance

41. Under a CTF HQ: Organize CTF components by service (i.e., CARFOR, CAFFOR, CMARFOR, etc.) Main effort: BZ maintenance, CT campaign & security Supporting effort: HA / DR, CMO CPG-2 Guidance

42. CPG-3 Guidance • CTF is established as a Coalition Civil Military Operations Task Force (CCMOTF) • Main effort: Civil-military Operations • Supporting effort: security • Organization: IAW MNF SOP, Chapter C-7, Figure C-7-A-1, CCMOTF Organizational Model

43. CPG-4 Guidance • Under a CTF HQ: • AO divided into sectors (Main & Supporting Efforts determined by Sector Commanders) • Organize CTF components by sector • CTF Component CDRs are lead force in a sector • Several nations may be assigned to a sector • Nations are assigned responsibility for all missions (except CT) in sector • MAF responsible for CT campaign

44. Commander’s Guidance • The importance of adequate planning & preparations for extreme cold weather conditions cannot be over-stressed. • All COAs must focus on the ability to operate effectively in extreme cold weather conditions at all levels of operations. Failure to do so, will result in unfeasible COAs & risk mission failure.