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School of Business Commercial Real Estate Conference March 6, 2012

School of Business Commercial Real Estate Conference March 6, 2012. The End of Extend and Pretend A Look at the Recent CRE Loan Experience of Connecticut’s Community Banks. Martin J. Geitz, President & CEO. Agenda. Community Bank Profile Market Conditions

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School of Business Commercial Real Estate Conference March 6, 2012

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  1. School of BusinessCommercial Real Estate Conference March 6, 2012 The End of Extend and Pretend A Look at the Recent CRE Loan Experience of Connecticut’s Community Banks Martin J. Geitz, President & CEO

  2. Agenda • Community Bank Profile • Market Conditions • Commercial Real Estate Loan Exposure • Loan Quality Trends • Conclusions

  3. Profile of Connecticut’s Community Banks

  4. Statistical Profile • 46 community banks headquartered in Connecticut • Often the largest bank in their home town • Connecticut community bank deposit market share: approximately 22% • 31 community banks’ data available for this analysis • Total Assets $23.0 billion • Total Loans $16.6 billion • Total Deposits $17.8 billion • Community banks account for over 50% of small business loans in US

  5. CRE Experience • CRE loans are significant balance sheet concentrations for many banks • Concentrations have declined slowly since 2009 peak • Loan quality indicators are still elevated • Expect continued impact of workouts: loan write-downs, foreclosures, distressed sales

  6. CRE Market Trends

  7. Commercial Real Estate U.S. Price Trends

  8. U.S. Home Prices Trends

  9. U.S. New Home Sales

  10. U.S. Housing Starts

  11. CT Housing Permits

  12. Community Bank CRE Loan Concentrations

  13. Total CRE Loans / Total Loans Percentage Data from FDIC UBPR Reports

  14. Total CRE Loans / Total Loans Number of CT Community Banks in each tier

  15. Total CRE Loans / Total LoansMedian Percentage

  16. Non-Owner Occupied CRE / Total Loans Percentage

  17. Non-Owner Occupied CRE / Total LoansMedian Percentage

  18. Owner Occupied Non-farm Non-residential CRE Loans / Average Loans Percentage

  19. Owner Occupied Non-farm Non-residential CRE Loans / Average LoansMedian Percentage

  20. Median Comparison Percentage

  21. CRE Construction and Development Loans / Total Loans Percentage

  22. CRE Construction and Development Loans / Total LoansMedian Percentage

  23. 1 to 4 Family Construction Loans / Total Loans Percentage

  24. 1 to 4 Family Construction Loans / Total LoansMedian Percentage

  25. Total CRE Loans / Capital Percentage

  26. Total CRE Loans / Capital Number of CT Community Banks in each tier

  27. Total CRE Loans / CapitalMedian Percentage

  28. Non-Owner Occupied CRE Loans / Capital Percentage

  29. Non-Owner Occupied CRE Loans / CapitalMedian Percentage

  30. Community Bank CRE Loan Quality

  31. Delinquency Trends • Loan delinquencies typically forecast loan workouts and, ultimately, charge-offs • Delinquencies plateauing for many CT community banks • Delinquencies remain high for commercial real estate loans

  32. All Loans 90+ Days Past Due Percentage

  33. All Loans 90+ Days Past DueMedian Percentage

  34. 1 to 4 Family Construction Loans 90+ Days Past Due Percentage

  35. 1 to 4 Family Construction Loans 90+ Days Past DueMedian Percentage

  36. Real Estate Loans 90+ Days Past Due Percentage

  37. Real Estate Loans 90+ Days Past DueMedian Percentage

  38. Construction & Land Development Loans 90+ Days Past Due Percentage

  39. Construction & Land Development Loans 90+ Days Past DueMedian Percentage

  40. Final Thoughts

  41. FDIC Overall Loan Delinquency Trend

  42. FDIC CRE Loan Delinquency Trend

  43. Conclusions • CT community bank CRE exposure has not declined significantly, though C&D loan exposure is down • CRE delinquencies appear to be leveling off – but is it a trend? • Weak economic growth offers little reason to expect quick improvement in community bank CRE loan conditions

  44. School of BusinessCommercial Real Estate Conference November 1, 2011 Thanks

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