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Polling – Predicting Voter Outcome

Polling – Predicting Voter Outcome. Important Connections. TOK : Is advertising useful or harmful to the election process? How do our own political views shape and/or influence how we view other people’s views? Learner Profile: Inquirers Knowledgeable Course Themes: Communication & Media

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Polling – Predicting Voter Outcome

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  1. Polling – Predicting Voter Outcome

  2. Important Connections • TOK: • Is advertising useful or harmful to the election process? • How do our own political views shape and/or influence how we view other people’s views? • Learner Profile: • Inquirers • Knowledgeable • Course Themes: • Communication & Media • Science & Technology

  3. Let’s Poll!

  4. Which would be better for the United States: a) Having one health insurance program covering all Americans that would be administered by the government and paid for by taxpayers. b) Keeping the current system where many people get their insurance from private employers and some have no insurance. c) No opinion

  5. 2. Which comes closer to your view: a) Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry. b) Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions, but not legally marry. c) There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship. d) No opinion

  6. 3. Which comes closer to your opinion: a) Global warming is a very serious problem and should be one of the highest priorities for government leaders. b) Global warming is serious but does not need to be a high priority. c) Global warming is not serious and can be addressed years from now. d) No opinion

  7. 4. Which comes closer to your opinion: a) Abortion should be generally available to those who want it. b) Abortion should be available but under stricter limits than it is now. c) Abortion should not be permitted. d) No opinion

  8. 5. Do you think most people you know would vote for a presidential candidate who . . . a) Has smoked marijuana b) Is black c) Is a woman d) Is a Mormon e) Is gay or lesbian f) Has used cocaine

  9. On what information, beliefs or experiences are your opinions based? • Do you think that your opinions are reflective of those in your age group? • Do you think that adults in your family or community would agree with your opinions on these issues? Why or why not?

  10. What is a Poll? • poll= the process of finding out what people think about something by asking many people the same question

  11. Key Ideas • Pollsters – Who conducted the poll? Was it conducted by a disinterested group, like a news organization, or by an advocacy organization? Who paid for it? Why was it conducted? • Sample Size – How many people need to be interviewed for the sample size to produce valid, representative results? For any particular poll, how many people were interviewed? What population are the results said to represent? Is the size adequate to represent that population? How can you tell?

  12. Key Ideas • Sample Randomization – Was the sample self-selected or chosen at random (“scientific”)? If the latter, was the methodology of finding respondents sufficient to ensure randomness? Why or why not? • Sampling Error – What do “sampling error,” “margin of error” and “confidence level” mean? How is the margin of error determined? How can errors be minimized and confidence level be maximized?

  13. Key Ideas • Demographics – What area(s) or region(s) were respondents from? Did the survey focus on a specific population, like drivers, voters, African-Americans, etc.? If the poll is meant to represent a large, diverse population, like Americans, do you think it does so and why or why not?

  14. Methodology – Was this poll done over the telephone, in person, on the Internet, some other way? Was it done by experienced poll-takers, or by inexperienced volunteers or students? How might the methodology affect or shape the results?

  15. Key Ideas • Question Wording – Does the question wording seem neutral, biased or perhaps confusing or misleading in some way? How about the question sequencing? Might any of these factors, as well as the poll-taker’s inflection, have influenced how respondents answered the questions? Do you think respondents expressed their true views?

  16. What is an opinion poll? • Questions a small section of the population to represent the views of the public on a particular topic • Popular research organisations include YouGov, MORI ICM who regularly poll the public

  17. Become a Pollster! • Each student has been assigned a statement. • Your task is to poll the entire class. • Read your statement to each student in the class and ask him/her, “Do you strongly agree? Agree? Disagree? Strongly disagree?” • Record every response. • Tally your responses. • Create a visual depicting the data • Present your findings to the class

  18. Homework • Create your own poll (remember the polling info!) • Your written analysis (we’ll go over how to do this) and visual representation of your data are due in week 14 (Thurs or Fri)

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