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GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES: COULD WE FACE THEM? - Astana, 4-5 September 2008 Slav Slavov

GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES: COULD WE FACE THEM? - Astana, 4-5 September 2008 Slav Slavov Regional Manager for Europe & Central Asia. WHAT IS WEC?. WEC founded in 1923 all energies and global non governmental long term reflection short term action Rome Congress 2007 Montreal Congress 2010.

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GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES: COULD WE FACE THEM? - Astana, 4-5 September 2008 Slav Slavov

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  1. GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES: COULD WE FACE THEM? - Astana, 4-5 September 2008 Slav Slavov Regional Manager for Europe & Central Asia

  2. WHAT IS WEC? WEC founded in 1923 all energies and global non governmental long term reflection short term action Rome Congress 2007 Montreal Congress 2010

  3. WEC GLOBAL GOALS ARE:AAA • ACCESSIBILITY-the extent to which people have access to modern and affordable energy; • AVAILABILITY-reliability+security of energy supply systems once access has been achieved; • ACCEPTABILITY- the environmental acceptance of energy production, transportation and use.

  4. Triplechallenge • Timelyprovided investments • Interconnections (Trans-regional net works) • Newtechnology & cost reduction • Clean coal • Carbon sequestration • Alternative fuels • Energy efficiency • Nuclear Competitiveness FULLY BALANCED AND MUTUALLY REINFORCED Sustainability Security of supply • Renewable energy • Energy efficiency • Nuclear option where chosen • Emissions trading • Up-Down stream dialogue & cross-border investments • Diversification of supply sources and routes • Increase share of potential domestic sources • Stocks management & global gas market • Enhancing energy efficiency

  5. WEC MESSAGE • Delivering sustainability to energy sector should be • a priority objective. It is achievable but…challenges • are many, and they must be tackle now and • urgently if sustainability is to be achieved in this • century; • And, it requires alternative policies.

  6. Why current policies are limited? • Ineffective and short-sighted; • Confusing and unfocused; • Inadequate to face the global scale of the issue; • Lead to more energy import dependence. • What priorities of alternative policies should be? • to restrain emission growth in energy & transport & develop carbon- free initiatives; • to ensure security by increasing share of alternative sources • and encourage diversification of current energy mix; • to support technology development & deployment;

  7. Energy is and will remain one of the major global concerns Estimated 2050 world population about 9 Billion; Electricity Consumption is foreseen to triple to some 45,000 TWh/a; How to reduce emissions without compromising economic development. Or shift to low C economy? Study Background - Population and Energy Consumption Growth IEA Scenario of energy growth for a sustainable future Source:IEA report “Energy to 2050 – Scenario for a Sustainable Future (2003)”

  8. Which way to take??? To Low Carbon Future Increasing Dependency

  9. The present global energy dynamics are unsustainable. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use = 60 % of all GHG 30 % 40 % 50 %: Dcs-overtake emissions from OECD; reaching 60-70% in 2050 Source Figure: 1990-20030: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 492, 493; 2050: IEA, Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage, Paris 2004, p. 101, 109; source insert: 1990-2030: IEA, WEO 2006, p. 492, 512; 2050: WEC, Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond, Report 1995, appendix C, scenario B: share developing countries in world primary energy supplies

  10. Energy and Climate change challenge • Electricity: 47%-largest ,but provides greatest reduction leverage; • Transport: 21%-Growing everywhere. Key challengefor emissions reduction; • Industry: 18%-Fast growth in developing countries; offset by increasing efficiency everywhere; • Buildings:13%-Steady growth; wide variation in emissions intensity.

  11. Global CO2 Emission Scenarios Emissions GtCO2/yr 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 A B Emissions Stabilization Low Carbon Economy 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 A – Business as usual; B – Roadmap to low carbon future

  12. What WEC is suggesting? • need to create a global carbon market with a fixed • global carbon value; • need to set up global regulations for this market as • as well for emission trading; • Common WEC-WTO efforts on energy +emission trading rules beyond 2012.

  13. Technology Map for the SET-Plan

  14. Other alternatives lead to improve energy mix and reduce dependency • increasing role of RES in energymix; • (20% in Europe by 2020 ?)-very ambitious; • further energy efficiency improvements; • nuclear renaissance? A burning issue but attractive solution again climate change; • Oil from non-traditional resources (oil sands…) • (Canada forecasts some 3 Mb/d)

  15. Question : would EI continue to fall down?

  16. WEC Study on Efficiency:Higher GDP for less energy < 0.2 Primary energy intensity, in toe/$95ppp Since 1990, EI is declining by 1.5% /y.China accounts for 1/4 of the reduction in the world energy intensity.

  17. Large disparities by region in the energy intensities: a factor 3 betweenCIS, 2.5 for Middle East and Europe; OECD Asia, India and Latin America (close to Europe); North America, Other Asia and world average: about 30% above Europe; China 40% above Primary energy intensities by world region (at purchasing power parities) (2006) 17

  18. Power generation 49% Exploration and development 73% Transmission and distribution Electricity Refining 51% 22% Oil 53% 5% Other 24% $11.6 trillion $5.4 trillion Biofuels 1% $0.6 trillion $4.2 trillion Exploration and development Gas 55% Mining Coal 90% 19% 3% LNG chain 8% Transmission and distribution Shipping and ports 37% 10% Total investment = $21.9 trillion (in $2006) Cumulative Investment in Energy Supply Infrastructure, 2006-2030Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 “Reference Scenario” More than 50% of investment needs to 2030 of $22 trillion are in developing countries, 17% in China & another 6% in India alone

  19. What WEC is suggesting here? • more pragmatism in policy implementation:e.g. • to provide more transparent, predictable and • stable reg.frame (new coal thermal projects); • to open cross-border investments and cooperation • between energy suppliers & consumers; • to harmonise cross-border el. tariffs and develop • methods for defining a common price formation • (in case of deregulated regional markets)

  20. How easy to do business in Central Asia • Starting business(number of days): • KZ-21; UZ-13; KG-21; TJ-21; Korea-17; • Starting business (number of procedures): • KZ- 8; UZ- 7; KG- 8; TJ- 13; Korea- 10; • Investor Protection Index (0-lowest; 10-highest): • KZ-5,7; UZ-4,3; KG-6,0; TJ-1,7; Korea-5,3; • Enforcing contract (number of days) • KZ-230; UZ-195; KG-177; TJ-295; Korea-230; AFG-1642; • Closing business (recovery rate, cents on $1): • KZ-23,4; UZ-18,7; KG-15,6; TJ-23,6; Korea-82; finally • How easy to do business/2007 Report (among178 countries) • KZ-71; UZ-145; KG-88; TJ-153; Korea-30; Russia:106;

  21. Two important WEC-events in September and October 1. WEC-FT Conferenceon Investing in Clean Energy Business - London,16&17 September - 2. WEC High-Level Dialogue between Caspian Suppliers & European Consumers including the Role of Transit Corridor Countries - Istanbul, 17 October-

  22. THANK YOU WWW.WORLDENERGY.ORG

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